Superdelegate chicanery notwithstanding, Obama has won his party’-s nomination, so my head-to-head contest between a major pollster (Zogby) and major prediction market (Intrade) will be coming to a close.
Unsurprising to those who know a little bit about the scholarship, economics, and/or track record of prediction markets, the traders of Intrade provided us much better data this election season than the respondents to the Zogby polls.
| Standings | |||||
| Wins | Losses | Ties | Pct | Contender | Avg Eve Prob |
| 7 | 3 | 11 | 59.5% | Intrade | 71.3% |
| 3 | 7 | 11 | 40.5% | Zogby | 40.7% |
| Schedule | ||||||||||
| Score | Date | State | Party | Intrade | Zogby | Winner | Intrade Pct | Zogby Pct | ||
| 7-3-11 | 6-May | IN | Dem | Clinton | 2-way-tie | Clinton | 85% | 42% | ||
| 6-3-11 | 6-May | NC | Dem | Obama | Obama | Obama | 90% | 50% | ||
| 6-3-10 | 22-Apr | PA | Dem | Clinton | Clinton | Clinton | 82% | 47% | ||
| 6-3-9 | 4-Mar | OH | Dem | Clinton | 2-way-tie | Clinton | 70% | 45% | ||
| 5-3-9 | 4-Mar | TX | Dem | Obama | 2-way-tie | Clinton | 57% | 44% | ||
| 5-2-9 | 5-Feb | NJ | Rep | McCain | McCain | McCain | 96% | 52% | ||
| 5-2-8 | 5-Feb | NJ | Dem | Clinton | 2-way-tie | Clinton | 67% | 43% | ||
| 4-2-8 | 5-Feb | NY | Rep | McCain | McCain | McCain | 98% | 53% | ||
| 4-2-7 | 5-Feb | GA | Dem | Obama | Obama | Obama | 96% | 48% | ||
| 4-2-6 | 5-Feb | MO | Dem | Obama | Obama | Obama | 63% | 47% | ||
| 4-2-5 | 5-Feb | CA | Rep | McCain | Romney | McCain | 56% | 40% | ||
| 3-2-5 | 5-Feb | CA | Dem | Obama | Obama | Clinton | 52% | 46% | ||
| 3-2-4 | 29-Jan | FL | Rep | McCain | 2-way-tie | McCain | 51% | 33% | ||
| 2-2-4 | 26-Jan | SC | Dem | Obama | Obama | Obama | 90% | 38% | ||
| 2-2-3 | 19-Jan | SC | Rep | McCain | McCain | McCain | 56% | 29% | ||
| 2-2-2 | 19-Jan | NV | Dem | Obama | Clinton | Clinton | 54% | 42% | ||
| 2-1-2 | 15-Jan | MI | Rep | McCain | 2-way tie | Romney | 54% | 27% | ||
| 2-0-2 | 8-Jan | NH | Dem | Obama | Obama | Clinton | 91% | 39% | ||
| 2-0-1 | 8-Jan | NH | Rep | McCain | McCain | McCain | 82% | 34% | ||
| 2-0-0 | 3-Jan | IA | Dem | Obama | 3-way tie | Obama | 54% | 28% | ||
| 1-0-0 | 3-Jan | IA | Rep | Huckabee | 2-way tie | Huckabee | 53% | 28% | ||
–
Lord willing, I will have another showdown season, but will most likely choose another pollster. Whereas Intrade listed contracts and probabilities for every state primary, Zogby only provided election eve updates for only 21 of the 87 held to date. Rasmussen stands out as a worthy pollster, but I would be happy with any candidate referrals from my readers as well.
Cross-posted from Caveat Bettor.
Previous blog posts by Caveat Bettor:
- Land-Ocean year-to-date temperatures 0.35 Celsius over baseline
- Intrade lists Global Warming Contracts!
- Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday
- Super Tuesday Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
- The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
- Zogby beats Intrade in predicting Nevada caucus winner Clinton.
- The GOP SC and Dem NV Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby