Dr Arata&#8217-s experiment on cold fusion to be replicated in peer-reviewed scientific journal on/before 31 Dec 2009

This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if Dr Yoshiaki Arata&#8217-s Cold Fusion experiment is replicated in a peer-reviewed scientifc journal on/before 31 Dec 2008.

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if Dr Yoshiaki Arata&#8217-s Cold Fusion experiment is NOT replicated in a peer-reviewed scientifc journal on/before 31 Dec 2008.

Details of the experiment can be found HERE.

Expiry will be based on publications in peer-reviewed scientific journals, as reported by three independent and reliable media sources.

Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.7 Unforeseen Circumstances.

The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate.

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account – Exchange Rule 1.4

Please contact the exchange by emailing [email protected] if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.

Important:
Please contact the Exchange if you have any query or uncertainty (including how it may be settled) about this Contract, the Rule above or the Contract Rules before you trade.

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Wikipedia

Robin Hanson on recent developments

Robin Hanson created a &#8220-Cold Fusion&#8221- event derivative market in 1990.

Robin Hanson talked up cold fusion in his first prediction market paper.

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I&#8217-m skeptical.

Google News is mute.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

• VIDEO: The financial markets hacker who will impress Jason Ruspini
• VIDEO: WeatherBill caught on tape
• You, the Midas Oracle readers, are a bunch of lazy bastards…!!!… — Take that, loafers…!!!…
• Prediction Markets within the Forecasting Community
• Devoting the whole NBC Nightly News bulletin to Tim Russert’s passing was worst than beaming out porn.
• COLD FUSION: The purpose of this post is to give you the scientific explainer link I forgot to publish (at inception) in my previous post.
• Forecasting Election Outcomes