Link to the InTrade prediction market.
Below, I try to hot-link to the chart, I’-m not sure at this point it will work. We will see.
Tim Pawlenty
Tim… Who?
2
Tag Archives: VP, VPs
Barack Obama + Kathleen Sebelius
Barack Obama drops hints about who his VP candidate will be. – Might be Evan Bayh.
Time:
QUESTION: One of the biggest moments in the campaign is going to be your announcement of a vice president. What is that decision going to tell voters about you?
BARACK OBAMA: Hopefully, the same thing that my campaign has told the American people about me. That I think through big decisions. I get a lot of input from a lot of people, and that ultimately, I try to surround myself with people who are about getting the job done, and who are not about ego, self—aggrandizement, getting their names in the press, but our focus on what’-s best for the American people.
I think people will see that I’-m not afraid to have folks around me who complement my strengths and who are independent. I’-m not a believer in a government of yes—men. I think one of the failures of the early Bush Administration was being surrounded by people who were unwilling to deliver bad news, or who were prone to simply feed the president information that confirmed his own preconceptions.
“-Not about ego”-…- is no good for Joe Biden.
“-Complement”-…-. is no good for Kathleen Sebelius and Tim Kaine.
So, it might be Evan Bayh.
UPDATE: Or Jack Reed.
Barack Obama + Kathleen Sebelius
New York Times publishes the portraits of all the VP candidates.
I have just read the article on Kathleen Sebelius…- and that has strongly reinforced my view that she is the best pick for Barack Obama.
I am less opinionated as for what should be the ideal Republican ticket. (Wait…- I want Ron Paul as VP candidate. 
)
Inexperienced Illinois senator (and presumptive Democratic nominee) Barack Obama should pick Kansas governor Kathleen Sebelius as vice president candidate to bring executive experience to the Democratic ticket -and to piss off Hillary Clinton (which will delight me).
Arbitrage in the InTrade Dem VP Market
There has been an unexploited arbitrage opportunity in the Intrade Democratic VP market (”-2008 Democratic VP Nominee (others upon request)”-). As the attachment shows, you can sell the slate of candidates for 123.2 (just sum the bids) while you will only have to payout 100. This possibility has existed for at least three weeks, and is particularly puzzling now given that the announcement is likely to occur this week.
What is also a bit odd is that Intrade has another market (”-2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee (with Field contract)”-) on the same outcome which includes a catch-all field contract which does not have the same arb–-again see the attachment below. It is substantially cheaper to buy the field contract in the second market than the omitted candidates (Kaine, Sebelius, Hagel, Schweitzer, Gephardt, Kerry, and others) in the first market.
Any thoughts on why this is occurring?
attachment: intradedemvp_summedbidsexceed100.pdf