CNN closed their 2 VP prediction markets… and immediately opened 2 not-brand-new VP prediction markets, with a full listing of candidate names, this time.
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Tag Archives: US politics
For Once
I agree with Nancy Pelosi.
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- 24 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 39 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).
- That was ubber world star Barack Obama in Berlin, during his July 2008 speech at the Victory Column. Spot all the digital cameras pointing to the socialist Messiah. Snatching something to bring at home — “see, I was there”.
- If you want your affiliation with the “Prediction Markets” group to appear on your LinkedIn profile, then click on “Edit Public Profile Settings”, and check the “Groups” option.
- If you want to connect with InTrade CEO John Delaney on LinkedIn…
- Do join the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, if you have a strong interest in the prediction markets or if you work in the prediction market industry. It’s free, and that’s a way for the LinkedIn visitors browsing stuff about prediction markets to stumble upon your resume / profile.
- You can now join the LinkedIn group on Prediction Markets.
- Nigel Eccles says that HubDub generates “data on peoples’ reputations for accurately analyzing and forecasting future events”.
I told you that vice presidential search committees and VP prediction markets are complete bullshit, didnt I?
The McLaughlin Group of mid-June (yes, I know, that’-s last month):
MS. BERNARD: Well, here’-s what I think. I think the dirty little secret is Barack Obama probably already knows who he’-s going to select to be his vice presidential running mate. You put out the search committee, probably because Hillary Clinton was all over his back last week –-
DR. MCLAUGHLIN: So this is a smokescreen. This is a smokescreen.
MS. BERNARD: I don’-t know if it’-s a smokescreen, but I think he has a good idea who his vice presidential running mate is going to be. And the search committee is much ado about nothing.
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I told you so.
No good advanced, primary indicators.
Don’-t trade on VP prediction markets.
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InTrades market data shows that the sliding Dow Jones Industrial Average has an exceptionally strong negative correlation (approx. -0.91 over the last 10 weeks) with the rise in the InTrade Market for Barack Obama to be the next US President.
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UPDATE: Some smart comments, just below…-
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US ELECTORAL MAP: Prediction Markets for the 2008 Electoral College
ELECTORAL COLLEGE MARKETS: Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland —-(electoralmarkets.com).
By Lance Fortnow, David Pennock, and Yiling Chen. 
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For more on probabilistic predictions, go to our “-Predictions”- page, or visit the prediction exchanges.
Alternatively, if you want an electoral map made of polls, go to electoral-vote.com.
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VP conditional probabilities
BetFair is running markets on both who will be the next vice president and who will be nominated by the two parties.
As we’-ve discussed before in other contexts, one can divide two probabilities like these to obtain a conditional probability: e.g., if the Democrats put X on the ticket, they will win the general election Y% of the time (where Y = odds of X becoming VP/odds of X being nominated).
These markets are thin, so the conditional probabilities should be taken with a grain of salt. But they are interesting nonetheless:
The pattern I see here is that conditional probabilities are higher for fresh faces (Webb, Sebelius- and arguably Bayh and Richardson despite their longer tenure) than for the old guard (Clinton, Nunn, Biden).
Of course, these should be viewed as correlations, not necessarily causal effects. For example, two possible explanations are: 1) putting a fresh face on the ticket helps Obama, either because there is less baggage or less of a contrast in national-politics resume length, or 2) Obama will only pick an old guard candidate in the state of the world in which he needs to shore up a weakness (i.e., picking Clinton to end a civil war, or Nunn to add foreign policy experience).
On the GOP side:
Huckabee has the highest conditional probability, and Pawlenty and Jindal are noticeably lower. Interpreting this one is harder: it depends on what aspect of Huckabee one thinks the market is expecting to be appealing (religion, likeability, Southernness, selective economic populism).
Technical note: the bids and asks reported above are actual quotes scrapped this AM- the mids are (bid+ask)/2, rescaled to add to 100 across all candidates.
Bob Barr markets
Reason, a libertarian periodical, writes that the Bob Barr effect is “-confirmed.”- Because Obama’-s campaign manager says it is.
Yes, pathetically a pro-market publication heeds the remarks of a political operative rather than markets that say Bob Barr will not make an impact.
Admittedly we have very little signal from prediction markets and lots of noise from political operatives, so writing about the latter makes for easier journalism.
There are now Intrade contracts on Barr’-s share of the popular vote. Perhaps they’-ll provide a little more signal, but I don’-t have high hopes for reasonable trading volume —- or for libertarian politicos embracing markets when the message of market prices might not correspond to their hallucinations.
GOOD NEWS: Ron Paul is now blogging. – THE CHERRY ON TOP OF THE CAKE: Ron Paul is using WordPress.org… just like Midas Oracle does.
Campaign For Liberty
Campaign For Liberty – Blog
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WordPress.org
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- You, the Midas Oracle readers, are a bunch of lazy bastards…!!!… — Take that, loafers…!!!…
- Prediction Markets within the Forecasting Community
- Devoting the whole NBC Nightly News bulletin to Tim Russert’s passing was worst than beaming out porn.
- COLD FUSION: The purpose of this post is to give you the scientific explainer link I forgot to publish (at inception) in my previous post.
- Forecasting Election Outcomes
- InTrade’s sudden and puzzled interest in… alchemy…!!!
- Psstt… Spot that comment, on Google News, about… “bellwethers”… from a political scientist.
The New Republic profiles the next Vice President of the United States of America -Jim Webb, maybe.
Via mister Bo Cowgill
The New Republic
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Some British betting bloggers are completely out of the loop.
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UPDATE: Andrew Sullivan on Hillary Clinton’-s exit statement. (He liked it.)
UPDATE: InTrade forum thread.
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InTrade
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Democratic Vice President Nominee
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Republican Vice President Nominee
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BetFair
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Next Vice President:
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Democratic Ticket
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Democratic Vice President Nominee
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Republican Vice President Nominee
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NewsFutures
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Barack Obama will pick a woman as running mate.
© NewsFutures
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Explainer On Prediction Markets
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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out…- Intelligence in, intelligence out…-
A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.
Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.
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2 days after my ringing the alarm bell… THE FREE FALL
– My first warning: June 4. + My second warning: June 4, later that day. + My third warning: June 5.
– Now, spot the timeline in the event derivative chart below.
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Take that, Mike R.
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TAKEAWAY: If you are a UK-based or British trader on prediction markets, don’-t believe a single word of what UK-based or British bloggers say about US politics. Go to US-based or American blogs to get the information you need to inform your US bets.
If you followed that British blogger, you’-d be in the red today.
Get your information from sources close to the action —-not one ocean away.
Get your information from vibrant sources who use intelligently both the information technology and the wisdom of crowds to comprehend the news —-see my point #5 on yesterday’-s post.
Pay attention to what I’-m going to say in the coming weeks about “-prediction market journalism“-. Thanks.
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