Are our betting exchanges’- APIs programmable?
Fred Wilson insists on read/write APIs (#5).
Any comments?
Prediction Markets APIs
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Tag Archives: Software
In the universe of Steve Jobs, personal vision trumps the wisdom of the crowd. Hes ready when he thinks were ready.
Great products, according to Mr. Jobs, are triumphs of “taste.” And taste, he explains, is a byproduct of study, observation and being steeped in the culture of the past and present, of “trying to expose yourself to the best things humans have done and then bring those things into what you are doing.”
His is not a product-design philosophy steered by committee or determined by market research. The Jobs formula, say colleagues, relies heavily on tenacity, patience, belief and instinct. He gets deeply involved in hardware and software design choices, which await his personal nod or veto.
I am filing this post in the “-INDIVIDUAL INTELLIGENCE –- ANTI CONSENSUS”- category (opposing the “-COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE –- WISDOM OF CROWDS”- category) —-following a remark I made privately to David Pennock, Mike Giberson and Mike Linksvayer.
BetFair apologizes to Niall OConnor… and the other traders affected by the site outage.
Betfair would like to apologise for the unplanned site outage that occurred earlier this afternoon [Monday, January 25, 2010]. The cause of this problem is currently being investigated by our technical team. A list of affected markets will be posted shortly [here].
Once again please accept our apologies for any inconvenience this may have caused.
Betfairs Liability in relation to its software failing
As somebody who likes to “-back and lay”- on UK horse racing, I was more than annoyed, when having placed a bet on a UK horse race, Betfair’-s software malfunctioned, meaning that I was unable to lay off my bet as was my intention.
To those of us that engage in backing and laying, the result of the race is irrelevant- we are trading on price movements and price movements alone. It was my belief (mistaken) that the contract that I had entered into with Betfair, would ensure that at all times Betfair would provide me with the means to back and lay, and that where it was unable to do so, the company would rule that as a proper market had not been formed on the race, my bet would be declared void, and my stake monies would be returned.
Alas, this was not so, as the following reply from Betfair makes clear-
“-As the site was not available to any customers between 2 –- 4pm, no bets were placed during this time and as this was due to matters beyond our control, our terms and conditions (11.3) state that:
We are not liable for the failure of any equipment or software howsoever caused, wherever located or administered, or whether under our direct control or not, that may prevent the operation of our betting services, impede the placing of orders for bets or the matching of bets, or prevent you from being able to contact us. In particular you should be aware that if you place a bet with the intention of subsequently placing a separate bet to reduce the liability incurred by the initial bet, there can never be a guarantee that the Exchange will be available at the point you wish to place the subsequent bet.”-
As it happens, the race concerned was the 2.45 at Fontwell, which somewhat contradicts Betfair’-s statement that- “-As the site was not available to any customers between 2 –- 4pm, no bets were placed during this time.”-
That aside it would seem that I have been snared by Betfair’-s all encompassing exclusion clause, to the effect that-
“-In particular you should be aware that if you place a bet with the intention of subsequently placing a separate bet to reduce the liability incurred by the initial bet, there can never be a guarantee that the Exchange will be available at the point you wish to place the subsequent bet.”-
I do not accept that this exclusion clause is fair or equitable, and accordingly I shall seek legal advice as to its efficacy. In the meantime, I will no longer use my Betfair account.
Betfair are rumoured to be lining up for a 1.5bn flotation- it is a disgrace that they do not have back up servers to prevent their site from crashing. When such an occurrence does take place, it is in Betfair’-s interest to return all bets. Betfair, the revolutionary betting company, have much to learn about the concept of goodwill.
Time-Series Forecasting
– The different kinds of forecasting software —-including time-series forecasting.
– Some forecasting startups make use of the open source and/or SaaS models. I need your feedback on all this. Please, comment below, e-mail me, wave me, or tweet me.
– Lokad –- (concurrent time-series forecasting) –- Video
– Data Applied –- (neural network algorithm)
External Links: Lokad –- Data Applied
Dont let others dissuade you to create a prediction market startup.
MicroSoft’-s Steve Ballmer:
My parents thought I’-d lost my mind to drop out of Stanford Business School to go to a company that makes software. My dad said “-what the heck is software?”- and my mother said “-why the heck would a person need a computer?”-.
The software I use on my MacBook Pro 17″
If you use some great software packages (utilities or applications) missing in this list, let me know. Thanks. Appreciated.
- Operating Systems: Linux – Ubuntu – Apple Macintosh OS – Apple iPhone OS – MicroSoft Windows
- Open-Source Software Packages: Open-Source Software Packages – Open-Source Mac – Open-Source iPhone Software – Open-Source Windows
- Linux: —-
- Macintosh: – ClamXav – The Unarchiver – Disk Inventory X – OnyX – Maintenance – Deeper – Desktop Inspector – Service Scrubber – AppCleaner – Burn – QuickSilver – MercuryMover – CyberDuck – iRed Lite – KisMac – Adium – Fink – Fink Commander – NeoOffice – Aquamacs Emacs – Apple iLife – Apple iWork –
- Windows: – ClamWin – AVG Free – IZArc – Programmer’-s NotePad – IrFanView – ListGarden – Core FTP – WinAMP – Real – Cube Explorer –
- Cross-Platform: – Java – Skype – Mozilla FireFox – Opera – Chrome – Apple Safari – GreaseMonkey for FireFox – Mozilla ThunderBird – RSS Owl – Adobe PDF Reader – VLC – Apple QuickTime – Audacity – GIMP – Inkscape – Blender – Open Office – Kompozer – Nvu – R – Vdrift –
UPDATE: Chris Hibbert lists his favorite software packages for Macintosh in the comment area. (I used his tips to update the listing above.)
Questions to InTrade CEO John Delaney about InTrade .NET and InTrade .COM
– InTrade .NET is a play-money prediction exchange while InTrade .COM is a real-money prediction exchange. Is there an automated market maker linking the InTrade .NET prices (or bids) with the InTrade .COM prices?
– Why is it that you ask the consumers of InTrade .NET to sign the terms of use of InTrade .COM, which mentions that: “-2.2.4 You may lose money on Exchange trades.”-? – [Thanks to Deep Throat for that remark.]
– InTrade .NET has a very good charting system. Will the same charting system be implemented at InTrade .COM whose charts are absolutely awful? (See this comparison between the InTrade .COM charts and the InTrade .COM v2 charts.) I insist to say that this should be a priority.
– Will InTrade .NET have chart widgets, just like InTrade .COM and InTrade .COM v2 both have?
– Will InTrade .NET have closed contracts (which are very useful in the accuracy discussions), just like InTrade .COM and InTrade .COM v2 both have?
– Finally, it is stated on the InTrade .COM frontpage (in a text promoting InTrade .NET) that:
When Intrade.net goes out of beta it will become the new default but the current version of Intrade.com will be retained indefinitely.
How should we understand that? Does this mean that you are going to merge your play-money and real-money prediction exchanges? (Might not be a bad idea provided that full information is given on each prediction market.)
UPDATE: Deep Throat tells me that their techies are testing their new user interface on InTrade .NET, which deals with with play money, and then if everything works out well, they may implement the same user interface on InTrade .COM, which deals with real money —-while maintaining the legacy InTrade .COM on a dedicated server, for the nostalgic users.
The InTrade .NET charting system is a great improvement for prediction market journalism.
One word: FANTASTIC.
Much improved.
- A prediction market blogger can hot-link to the advanced chart.
- The advanced chart is the by-default chart —-both prices and volumes are chartered. [Thin volumes don’t appear, though.]
- The advanced chart is of the right width —-not too small, not too big.
What remains to be improved:
- InTrade should publish chart widgets, so that the weblink to the prediction market webpage is automatically embedded in the chart.
- InTrade should publish expired charts of the closed prediction markets. Discussions about accuracy should be supported visually.
- InTrade should develop dynamic compound chart widgets with customizable news markers.
I hope we will get improvement on these fronts, soon.
Excellent article about enterprise prediction markets and Inkling Markets -with a good word for Robin Hanson, who invented MSR.
Via Daniel Horowitz (Business and Technology Consultant)
Software taps into the zeitgeist to predict the future.
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- No Trades (other than at the start) —-> Not a reliable predictor, as of today
- How you should read Midas Oracle
- The best prediction exchanges
- “There will be no media consumption left in ten years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.”
- Hillary Clinton won’t be on the Democratic ticket. — It’s not going to happen. — N-E-V-E-R. — Not a chance. — Period.
- Suggestion for WordPress — Subscribers’ Capabilities
- This is why I said that those who believe that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket are “clueless”.