Washington Mutual is seized by the US government.

Posted on September 26, 2008 by admin

– New York Times

– Another one bites the dust:

(Sorry for those who have a narrow screen and don&#8217-t see the right part of this big chart.)

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According to InTrade, here are the banks that could fail next:

– Bank United Financial

– Downey Financial

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External Links About The Big Bailout:

– Reason magazine have collected opinions from the leading free-market economists on the Bailout issue.

There is no reason to expect the correct solution from the same people who created the crisis in the first place and who until very recently thought the economy was strong and that there was little or no chance of recession. [Mark Thornton]

This is a financial coup d&#8217-etat, with the only limitation the $700 billion balance sheet figure. [Yves Smith]

– Mike Linksvayer has some additional good links&#8230- and some strong words, too.

– Arnold Kling:

– NYT:

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UPDATE: Paul Krugman

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UPDATE: The Manhattan Institute on financial crisis and the Bailout

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UPDATE:

HUBDUB PUNDIT WATCH: TechCrunch is the bottom of the pool, while VentureBeat and Pat Buchanan are stellar.

Posted on September 26, 2008 by admin

I am not surprised at all by the results.

Maybe a non-profit organization should sponsor PunditWatch.

Robin Hanson (mister &#8220-Track Records&#8221-), take notice.

2008 US Presidential and Congressional Elections Prediction: The Sarah Palin effect has partially evaporated, but its remains point to a close race, come Tuesday, November 4, 2008.

Posted on September 23, 2008 by admin

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#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets

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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out&#8230- Intelligence in, intelligence out&#8230-

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

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More Info:

– The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

– Prediction Market Science

– The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

– All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

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#2. Objective Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets

–

Put your mouse on your selected chart, right-click, and open the link in another browser tab to get directed to the prediction market page of your favorite exchange.

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2008 US Elections

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InTrade

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2008 US Electoral College

2008 Electoral Map Prediction = InTrade – Electoral College Prediction Markets = Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade = electoralmarkets.com

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– This is a dynamic chart, which is up to date. Click on the image, and open the website in another browser tab to get the bigger version.

JASON RUSPINI FOR PRESIDENT: The Web of Misery tournament has ended, and Donna Hoffman will crown our Jason Ruspini with an olive tree branch-made kotinos.

Posted on September 4, 2008 by admin

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US ELECTORAL MAP: Prediction Markets for the 2008 Electoral College

Posted on July 10, 2008 by admin

ELECTORAL COLLEGE MARKETS: Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland &#8212-(electoralmarkets.com).

By Lance Fortnow, David Pennock, and Yiling Chen.

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For more on probabilistic predictions, go to our &#8220-Predictions&#8221- page, or visit the prediction exchanges.

Alternatively, if you want an electoral map made of polls, go to electoral-vote.com.

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VIDEO: Max Keisers attempt at predicting the future -subjectively

Posted on June 19, 2008 by admin

Overall, the TV show is based on a good concept (trying to predict future headlines), and I&#8217-m sure it will be a success in the end.

However, one big mistake Max is doing is to have female journalists. Sorry to say that, but if you are in the business of selling subjective predictions, you need to have credible predictors, with loud voice, charisma, and definitive attitude. Most women in journalism don&#8217-t display those qualities.

Max, fire the journalists and put real pundits on your TV show.

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Video

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

The letter David Pennock will never send out —well, we hope.
Monitor the web traffic of TradeSports.com, InTrade.com, BetFair.com, Betdaq.com, NewsFutures.com, HubDub.com, etc. —thanks to Google Trends.
Here’s the way to promote innovation for entry-order and analysis software packages —separate the 2 functions.
Ugly things happened before BetFair was invented
Tiny API delay for non-UK customers of BetFair —since all international BetFair bettors, traders and gamblers are now served from Malta, not from London.
CLOCK IS RUNNING FAST: 17 days to go, if we want to counter AEI’s push for not-for-profit prediction exchanges.
In the for-profit vs not-for-profit debate, our prediction market luminaries, doctored by Bob, are on the wrong side of the issue.

Predictify is about building track records of human predictors.

Posted on June 10, 2008 by admin

Robert Scoble interviews their CTO.

Video

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Predictify is not a prediction exchange. We think prediction markets are superior to polls and surveys, don&#8217-t we?

With Predictify, the mechanism delivering the collective verdict is simplistic: it&#8217-s a poll &#8212-with possibility to get down to each individual answer.

Their conversation is very interesting, nevertheless &#8212-in great part due to Robert Scoble&#8217-s intense curiosity.

Technically, the video is awesome and plays well &#8212-even with my old computer and slow DSL line. Kudos to the Fast Company techies.

UPDATE: I don&#8217-t like that their video starts off automatically, though. With YouTube, we decide to play the video &#8212-it is not imposed on us.

UPDATE: Alas, their embedded video does not go into the blog feed.

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UPDATE: I e-mailed my remarks to Robert Scoble, and he&#8217-s asked to his techie to look into the issues.

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UPDATE: I see that the video does not start on its own, now. They managed to correct that. Rest the fact that their videos don&#8217-t go into feeds.

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How accurate are prediction markets in US elections?

Posted on April 13, 2008 by admin

Unless you&#8217-re just just surfacing from an Afghan cave, you can easily guess who that &#8220-David&#8221- could be&#8230-

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Yahoo! Answers on prediction markets

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

The Most Surprising Piece Of News I’ve Heard Today
My first prediction market plugin for WordPress
Self-Serving Prediction Market Of The Day — Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006
Prediction markets tend to be so illiquid, though, that mere activity looks like volatility.
Decision Markets and Futarchy are solutions in desperate search for a problem to solve and for their early adopters… and that may stay that way well after Robin Hanson’s head gets cryogenized.

Are you a better predictor than John McCain?

Posted on March 18, 2008 by admin

Via Bo Cowgill of Google, via Foreign Policy, John McCain:

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They would do anything to sell politics, these days.

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Foreign Policy:

It&#8217-s a clever marketing ploy by team McCain, but why stop there? Why not have the candidate take positions in predictions markets such as Intrade? Wouldn&#8217-t we rather know how prescient Senator McCain is about the odds of bird flu striking the United States by the end of September, the chances Pervez Musharraf will step down as Pakistan&#8217-s president anytime soon, or the likelihood of a peace treaty between Israel and the Palestinians by January 2009? Put your money where your mouth is, senator.

InTrade-TradeSports and BetFair-TradeFair should let traders opt to make public their positions, and they should create dynamic prediction registries and leagues.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

Red Herring’s list of the top 100 North-American high-tech startups includes Inkling Markets —but not NewsFutures, Consensus Point, or Xpree.
Professor Koleman Strumpf explains the prediction markets to the countryland people.
Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset.
Time magazine interview the 2 BetFair-Tradefair co-founders, and not a single time do they pronounce the magic words, “prediction markets”.
One Deep Throat told me that this VC firm might have been connected with the Irish prediction exchange, at inception.
BetFair Rapid = BetFair’s standalone, local, PC-based, order-entry software for prediction markets
Michael Moore tells the Democratic people to go Barack Obama in Pennsylvania (a two-tier state), but the polls and the prediction markets tell us that that won’t do the trick.

Midas Oracle is the only popular, independent, exhaustive, multi-author, multi-exchange, Web-based resource on prediction markets.

Posted on January 27, 2008 by admin

Dear Midas Oracle readers,

I&#8217-m happy to report progress in building the architecture and content of our group blog, Midas Oracle. Let me introduce you to our 2 master pages: &#8220-PREDICTIONS&#8221- and &#8220-BEST&#8221-.

&#8212-

#1. PREDICTIONS

Predictions

http://www.midasoracle.org/predictions/

= our explainer on prediction markets + the best charts of prediction markets

Following the New Hampshire brouhaha, I believe that the way to go is to systematically associate (when time and space permit) a short probability explainer to any published chart of prediction market. You can see such an association at the top of our blog frontpage. I will do that in some blog posts, too, in the future.

Political charts from InTrade and NewsFutures are published there. Charts from more exchanges will be added there over the coming weeks, months, and years. Suggestions are welcomed.

Thanks to Michael Giberson and Emile Servan-Schreiber for some tiny input in establishing that brand-new page.

&#8212-

#2. BEST

Best

http://www.midasoracle.org/best/

= the best external weblinks on prediction markets + the best Midas Oracle posts on prediction markets

This file has been quite popular &#8212-see the web stats report, in the appendix. I will, of course, augment this file with many more pointers, in the coming weeks, months, and years. Suggestions are welcomed.

&#8212-

#3. ARCHIVES

Midas Oracle.ORG – Predictions & Innovation

Prediction Markets, Collective Intelligence, Innovation and Growth

Tag Archives: Predictions

Washington Mutual is seized by the US government.

HUBDUB PUNDIT WATCH: TechCrunch is the bottom of the pool, while VentureBeat and Pat Buchanan are stellar.

2008 US Presidential and Congressional Elections Prediction: The Sarah Palin effect has partially evaporated, but its remains point to a close race, come Tuesday, November 4, 2008.

JASON RUSPINI FOR PRESIDENT: The Web of Misery tournament has ended, and Donna Hoffman will crown our Jason Ruspini with an olive tree branch-made kotinos.

US ELECTORAL MAP: Prediction Markets for the 2008 Electoral College

VIDEO: Max Keisers attempt at predicting the future -subjectively

Predictify is about building track records of human predictors.

How accurate are prediction markets in US elections?

Are you a better predictor than John McCain?

Midas Oracle is the only popular, independent, exhaustive, multi-author, multi-exchange, Web-based resource on prediction markets.