PROVEN AND DOCUMENTED: Joe Weisenthal is drunken with his own manipulation paranoia.

Posted on March 11, 2010 by admin

Joe is going off the deep end. Market noises are now interpreted as the intergalactic battle between the pro-HCR and the anti-HCR, who are both seeking to manipulate the InTrade prediction markets. No evidence whatsoever is displayed.

P.S: I am not picking on Joe, who is a good web curator, and a nice chap. Just disagree with him (and Andrew Golberg) that prediction market journalism is easy to do. Good prediction market journalism is very hard to do. Requires scoops and pertinent analysis. Scrapping exchange probabilities and aggregating it with re-written news is not enough.

ADDENDUM

More info on health care reform on Memeorandum.

Previously: Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform?

Any philanthropist or foundation interested in using prediction markets to foster free-market philosophy understanding?

Posted on March 11, 2010 by admin

I am throwing a message-in-a-bottle to the sea, this morning.

Got an interesting idea, which I will trot around in 2010.

Here&#8217-s how to contact me. Thanks.

Health care reform is down to 47% at InTrade. -> Toss a coin, it will get you the same.

Posted on March 10, 2010 by admin

So much for the &#8220-insider trading&#8221- who signaled the certainty of the adoption of the new health care reform bill. Joe Weisenthal swallowed InTrade CEO&#8217-s marketing bait.

Business Insider readers are rather skeptical of the InTrade insider trading story.

Posted on March 10, 2010 by admin

Many are critical. Read.

Plus, the event derivative is back to 55% [UPDATE: 47%] &#8212-slightly above tossing a coin.

Here&#8217-s The Hill on the prospect for the bill. &#8211- More on Memeorandum.

Previously: Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform?

OSCARS 2010: Did Justin Wolfers brag too much and too loudly? – [RELATIVE ACCURACY DEPARTMENT]

Posted on March 10, 2010 by admin

Jason (a Freakonomics reader):

You are giving yourself WAY too much credit. Siskel and Ebert successfully predict these awards 100% year after year. This isn’t a difficult thing to predict. Predicting something like the NCAA tourney, that would be an accomplishment, but if you look at rankings and your prediction market, you will fail just as much as the average bracket.
— Jason

Heres the man who would deliver a wise analysis on whether the InTrade HCR PM is being manipulated or traded by DC insiders.

Posted on March 10, 2010 by admin

Previously: Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform?

Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform?

Posted on March 9, 2010 by admin

InTrade CEO John Delaney:

&#8230-it is a reasonably active market but atypically a lot of the trade is coming from the DC area when normally we might see trade coming from all the major urban areas.

ADDENDUM: For your information, in Great Britain, sporting insiders (such as athletes or jockeys) who trade on betting exchanges (such as BetFair) are actively monitored.

Paul Krugmans excellent definition of the prediction markets

Posted on March 9, 2010 by admin

Paul Krugman:

Betting markets don’t have any mystical power, but they do summarize conventional wisdom pretty well- […]

E-mail confidentially to tell me the names of the economists who over-hype the prediction markets.

In France, prediction markets are hyped by 2 bozo economists -David Thesmar and Augustin Landier.

Posted on March 8, 2010 by admin

Emile Servan-Schreiber is doing a great job of putting prediction markets on the French media scene. (As I type this, he is on French TV.)

2 green-foot French economists (David Thesmar and Augustin Landier) are hyping the prediction markets in the French media, using a non-scientific language (&#8220-predictive markets&#8221-, &#8220-stocks&#8221- *) and few references to hard facts. Their background is not stellar. They penned an Op-Ed in July 2007, titled, &#8220-The mega-crash won&#8217-t happen&#8221- [PDF file].

Of course, one year later, the developed world experienced (and is still experiencing) the worst financial crisis ever. What&#8217-s funny is that, in 2007, our 2 economists-in-chief were hyping the non-regulated credit derivatives that sent us into the depression, and denying the possibility of systemic risk. What a bunch of incompetents.

Emile, please recruit more serious people.

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[*] The good vocabulary is &#8220-prediction markets&#8221-, and &#8220-traded bets&#8221- or &#8220-event derivatives&#8221-.

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Next: French bozo economist Augustin Landier is hiding his 2007 Op-Ed that stated that the financial crisis “won’t happen”.

Next: French bozo economist David Thesmar is hiding his 2007 Op-Ed that stated that the financial crisis “won’t happen”.