Tag Archives: prediction markets

Harvard fella says prediction markets are doomed.

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No GravatarHe bases his brilliant reasoning on &#8220-rumors&#8221- and total ignorance of the participation inequality law.

Another academic fella who would be better off researching his topic before blogging on something he does not master.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Inkling Markets bring in awards, honors, advisors, and new clients —leaving competition in the dust.
  • No need of enterprise prediction markets to boost intra-corporation communication
  • Inkling Markets is included in the 2008 list of “Cool Vendors” by Gartner.
  • BetFair-TradeFair has won its second Queen’s Award for Enterprise in its eight-year history.
  • Inkling Markets is one of the “Hot Companies To Watch In 2008”, according to Forrester.
  • Plenty of great news coming from Inkling Markets in the coming weeks
  • ??? charity-driven prediction markets OR social issue prediction markets ???

The Promise Of Enterprise Prediction Markets – The McKinsey conference should have been rooted in the economic science and McKinsey should have invited economists.

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No GravatarMcKinsey: The Promise Of Prediction Markets

James Surowiecki: The premise is that under the right circumstances, the collective judgment of a large group of people will generally provide a better picture of what the future might look like than anything one expert or even a small group of experts will come up with. [&#8230-]

James Surowiecki: The Wisdom of Crowds is not an argument against experts. It is saying that you shouldn’t rely wholly on the judgment of one person or even a very small group of people. But for a crowd to be smart, it needs to satisfy certain criteria. It needs to be diverse, so that people are bringing different pieces of information to the table. It needs to be decentralized, so that no one at the top is dictating the crowd’s answer. It needs to summarize people’s opinions into one collective verdict. And the people in the crowd need to be independent, so that they pay attention mostly to their own information and don’t worry about what everyone around them thinks.

James Surowiecki: [&#8230-] One shortcoming is that a lot of people inside organizations don’t find the market mechanism intuitive or easily understood. They find it very challenging to use, which limits the pool of people who participate.

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On James Surowiecki&#8217-s last remark, I would say that Robin Hanson&#8217-s MSR technology (which powers most enterprise prediction exchanges but Google&#8217-s one) brought much needed simplification to trading.

Overall, a good roundup, but the conference speakers should have mentioned Robin Hanson&#8217-s pioneering work, and McKinsey should have invited him. He would have towered anybody and given great insights.

See Jed Christiansen for other remarks.

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As an aside, I&#8217-d say I prefer the sketch that is supposed to represent Bo rather than the real photo. The sketch makes him look like he is subtitle, charming, smiling, humble, and modest &#8212-quite a quantum leap. :-D

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Bo Cowgill

Bo Cowgill – Economics at Google

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  • PhotoShop designers improve the look of models on glossy magazine covers.
  • Sketchy artists improve the look of testosteroned, ultra-serious, ambitious, young business managers. :-D

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Previously: Do Google’s enterprise prediction markets work?

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Collective Error = Average Individual Error – Prediction Diversity
  • When gambling meets Wall Street — Proposal for a brand-new kind of finance-based lottery
  • The definitive proof that it’s presently impossible to practice prediction market journalism with BetFair.
  • The Absence of Teams In Production of Blog Journalism
  • Publish a comment on the BetFair forum, get arrested.
  • If I had to guess, I would say about 50 percent of the “name pros” you see on television on a regular basis have a negative net worth. Frightening, I know.
  • You can’t measure the usefulness of a system by how many resources it consumes.

Drawing a parallel between our reluctance to seek advice and the experts reluctance to take the market-generated probabilistic predictions in an un-discriminating, un-critical fashion

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No GravatarRobin Hanson:

[&#8230-] We rarely seek out advice, and when we do it is usually on much smaller decisions. [&#8230-] One reason we avoid getting advice is that it lowers our status relative to those who give advice. Of course this is also makes asking for advice a good way to flatter and supplicate. Not sure if this explains the puzzle though. But all this doesn&#8217-t seem to bode well for fielding decision markets on the biggest organizational decisions.

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It would not make sense for political experts to spend their work days reading the political prediction markets, only. They are paid to produce poll reports and analysis, which then inform the event derivative traders. The polls and the political memos are the primary sources of information, which determine the direction of the political futures markets.

In the same vein, it would not make sense for us to be seeking advice all the time. We will learn more in our lives by making mistakes and correcting them. Maybe that&#8217-s the reason we don&#8217-t like seeking advice: we know we get better by discovering ideas, making good and bad decisions, and learning from all that on our own.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • “Annette 15”, the once-hot female poker star sponsored by BetFair Poker, does blog only twice a month on the official BetFair blog… when she blogs at all… if you call that blogging.
  • Inkling Markets bring in awards, honors, advisors, and new clients —leaving competition in the dust.
  • No need of enterprise prediction markets to boost intra-corporation communication
  • Inkling Markets is included in the 2008 list of “Cool Vendors” by Gartner.
  • BetFair-TradeFair has won its second Queen’s Award for Enterprise in its eight-year history.
  • Inkling Markets is one of the “Hot Companies To Watch In 2008”, according to Forrester.
  • Plenty of great news coming from Inkling Markets in the coming weeks

My first prediction market plugin for WordPress

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No GravatarI have created a lite plugin for WordPress. It displays the best one-line mottos and one-line quotes on prediction markets, in the top right corner of the admin panel. This plugin is based on a slight modification of the &#8220-Never Gonna Give You Up&#8221- plugin (based on the &#8220-Hello, Dolly&#8221- plugin).

Here&#8217-s a screen shot:

Prediction Markets Rock.

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As of today, I have just put the BetFair slogan in the database. Overtime, I will add quotes from our prediction market luminaries (or so they think they are). I might e-mail them to ask them to provide quotes &#8212-or I might scout the Web for tidbits.

After my harvesting and implementing, I&#8217-ll put up this plugin in the WordPress directory of plugins, so everybody can download it for free and get illuminated by our prediction market wisdom. :-D

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • “Is Clinton’s Pennsylvania Lead Really 20 Points?”
  • The Most Surprising Piece Of News I’ve Heard Today
  • Self-Serving Prediction Market Of The Day — Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006
  • Prediction markets tend to be so illiquid, though, that mere activity looks like volatility.
  • Decision Markets and Futarchy are solutions in desperate search for a problem to solve and for their early adopters… and that may stay that way well after Robin Hanson’s head gets cryogenized.

Enterprise prediction markets give voice to serious, technology-minded professionals who really know their vertical (engineers, analysts and contractors) -and reveal how frivolous and unpertinent most horizontal managers are.

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Via prediction market pioneer Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures [*], the New York Times (2 pages):

At InterContinental Hotels, Zubin Dowlaty, vice president for emerging technologies, decided to create an online market last fall to “harvest and prioritize ideas” from within the hotel’s 1,000-person technology staff. “We wanted to tap the creative class that may not be able to voice their ideas,” Mr. Dowlaty said. With InterContinental’s prediction market, players were asked to submit ideas anonymously, with a description and the benefit to customers and company. The bettors were given virtual tokens, each receiving 10 green ones to be placed on the best ideas and three red for bad ideas. There were no limits on the number of times bettors could change their wagers as new ideas came to market, and the market was open for four weeks. The five top ideas (most green tokens), five bottom ideas (most red) and the top five bettors (most accurate, according to market consensus) were listed regularly. The winners got $500, while second- and third-place finishers received $250 each. The winners, Mr. Dowlaty said, were engineers, analysts and contractors, not managers. More than 200 people participated, submitting 85 ideas. One person proposed bringing back quarter-operated vibrating beds. “That one got beat down really fast,” Mr. Dowlaty said. The winning ideas were suggestions to improve searching the company’s Web site to find and book hotel rooms. Two projects have been started as a result of the market, Mr. Dowlaty said. Next, he said, prediction markets may be opened up to InterContinental’s customers, probably beginning with members of its Priority Club loyalty program. They could bet in markets for improving service and offerings, with points redeemed. “It’s the next frontier and the natural progression for this,” Mr. Dowlaty said.

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[*]

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InTrade-TradeSports, unlike BetFair-TradeFair, do manage internal, enterprise prediction markets.

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Previously: Do Google’s enterprise prediction markets work?

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Self-Serving Prediction Market Of The Day – Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006

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No GravatarInTrade:

New Market: Amendment to UIGEA

Monday, Apr 14, 2008

We have listed a contract on an amendment to the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act being passed before the end of 2010, and that Rep. Barney Frank will be a sponser of the bill. This contract can be found under Legal &#8212- Internet Gaming.

Contract Rules:

This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if a bill amending the provisions of the US code implementing UIGEA will pass by 11:59:59pm ET on the date specified in the contract, AND Rep. Barney Frank is among the bill&#8217-s sponsors

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if a bill amending the provisions of the US code implementing UIGEA DOES NOT pass by 11:59:59pm ET on the date specified in the contract, or it does pass and Rep. Barney Frank is NOT among the bill&#8217-s sponsors

Expiry will be based on the official passage of any bill, as reported by three independent and reliable media sources. For expiry purposes the Library of Congress? Thomas system will be used as the definitive source of information.

A bill will be considered &#8220-passed&#8221- once it has been passed by congress (House and Senate) and sent to the President for signing. What the President does with the bill will not affect expiry.

The UIGEA is the &#8220-Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act&#8221-.

Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.7 Unforeseen Circumstances.

The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate.

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account – Exchange Rule 1.4

Please contact the exchange by emailing [email protected] if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.

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Why is Barney Frank&#8217-s footprint so important, in that contract? Makes no sense at all to personalize the issue. John Delaney is the most illogical man I have ever met.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • “Is Clinton’s Pennsylvania Lead Really 20 Points?”
  • The Most Surprising Piece Of News I’ve Heard Today
  • My first prediction market plugin for WordPress
  • Prediction markets tend to be so illiquid, though, that mere activity looks like volatility.
  • Decision Markets and Futarchy are solutions in desperate search for a problem to solve and for their early adopters… and that may stay that way well after Robin Hanson’s head gets cryogenized.

Managed Futures is the one category that consistently benefits from volatility AND has positive expectancy, unlike short-sellers.

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No GravatarInsteresting comment from Jason Ruspini.

Jason, the high-end event derivative traders at BetFair (and probably at TradeSports and Betdaq) do benefit from volatility &#8212-they would trade thousands of times on one prediction market, back and forth, taking advantage of small price moves. Any related thought about that, with respect to your comment at Potfolio?

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • “Is Clinton’s Pennsylvania Lead Really 20 Points?”
  • The Most Surprising Piece Of News I’ve Heard Today
  • My first prediction market plugin for WordPress
  • Self-Serving Prediction Market Of The Day — Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006
  • Prediction markets tend to be so illiquid, though, that mere activity looks like volatility.

How accurate are prediction markets in US elections?

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No GravatarUnless you&#8217-re just just surfacing from an Afghan cave, you can easily guess who that &#8220-David&#8221- could be&#8230- :-D

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Yahoo! Answers on prediction markets

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The Most Surprising Piece Of News I’ve Heard Today
  • My first prediction market plugin for WordPress
  • Self-Serving Prediction Market Of The Day — Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006
  • Prediction markets tend to be so illiquid, though, that mere activity looks like volatility.
  • Decision Markets and Futarchy are solutions in desperate search for a problem to solve and for their early adopters… and that may stay that way well after Robin Hanson’s head gets cryogenized.

New Product Innovation: Enterprise Prediction Markets Can Help.

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Via the New York-based Yahoo! Research scientist who was video-interviewed by the New York Post, the other day- Teck-Hua Ho &amp- Kay-Yut Chen:

New Product Blockbusters: The Magic and Science of Prediction Markets
Teck-Hua Ho &amp- Kay-Yut Chen
50/1 (Fall 2007): 144-158

New product innovation is a strategic business activity that involves significant financial resources and managerial attention. Most new product launches fail because existing methods are unable to forecast their commercial successes accurately. In this article, we describe a market-based method to address this gap. This method capitalizes on the power of the “wisdom of crowds” by allowing people to interact in organized markets governed by well-defined rules. The working of these markets relies on five scientific principles referred to as I4C (pronounced as “I foresee”). These markets motivate people to share information freely through a price discovery process. Prediction markets seek information aggregation from a large group of diverse individuals by encouraging active participation. We demonstrate the power of the markets with real application examples from a wide variety of industries.

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More:

The principles are incentive, indicator, improvement, independence, and crowd.

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New Product Innovation: NewsFutures, Inkling Markets, Consensus Point and Xpree can help.

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