Nigel Eccles does not seem to understand that.
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The HubDub predictions markets on assassinations and deaths are sparking outrage.
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Tag Archives: prediction markets
Forbes endorses the Jason Ruspini prediction markets on tax rate.
Forbes:
Whether you think prediction markets are miraculous indications of the wisdom of the crowd or just fun betting markets is sort of beside the point. Nor does it much matter if the markets are accurate or vulnerable to speculative manipulation. What’-s key is that by hedging a tax increase, you are taking out a little insurance against that heaven-help-us event.
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TradeSports & InTrade – The saga continues…
– See comment #2 that says that the InTrade PMs on InTrade are “-absurd”-.
– Scroll down there to spot Todd’-s comment.
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Previously: Why did John Delaney shut down TradeSports?
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Previously: The InTrade predicton markets on the viability of InTrade won’-t reveal *ANYTHING* about the future of InTrade.
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Previously: on TradeSports death – on InTrade’-s viability
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Chris Masse (in his holy greatness) asks the question that so terrifies Jed Christiansen.
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Terrified. 
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InTrade CEO John Delaneys 2 risky bets
– Their upcoming “business development initiatives” will magically generate new, sustainable revenues.
– The CFTC will soon allow InTrade to export its Irish services, legally, to the Americans.
Each of those bets is risky —-and InTrade need to succeed on both fronts. It will be very difficult.
Best of luck to them —-luck is what they will be needed.
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Is this the reason John Delaney quickly shut TradeSports down, yesterday?
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Tip via Jason Ruspini
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Previously: on TradeSports death – on InTrade’-s viability
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The InTrade traders are wondering what the future of InTrade is -now that TradeSports has bellied up in style.
Here are the screen shots of their posts —-before they get removed.
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Previously: on TradeSports death – on InTrade’-s viability
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The InTrade predicton markets on the viability of InTrade are *STRUCTURALLY* designed to *DETER* any InTrade trader from betting on the negative side of the issue.
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Link via Jason Ruspini
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Previously: The InTrade predicton markets on the viability of InTrade won’-t reveal *ANYTHING* about the future of InTrade.
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The InTrade predicton markets on the viability of InTrade wont reveal *ANYTHING* about the future of InTrade.
It is impossible for any InTrade trader to know whether the financial accounting of InTrade is sound or not. Any commercial company surrounds itself with secrecy. Let alone an Irish company that illegally (from the DOJ’-s standpoint) exports its services to Americans.
UPDATE: See the comment #1 there.
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It was impossible for the InTrade traders to divine whether Yahoo! CEO Jerry Yang would step down.
(In passing, note that InTrade has expired this contract hours after the breaking news hit the wires.)
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It was impossible for the InTrade traders to divine whether Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 would be voted and enacted.
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The InTrade predicton markets on the viability of InTrade won’-t reveal ANYTHING about the future of InTrade. It will just aggregate InTrade’-s PR output.
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As for the “-business development initiatives”- planned by the InTrade executives, I wish them the best of luck. However, I remain skeptical, since I don’-t see what can replace the 2008 US elections in terms of attractiveness —-now that the SuperBowl has been sacrificed.
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After the demise of TradeSports, questions (re-)surface about the viability of InTrade.
My post about the sudden closure of TradeSports was the #2 most downloaded webpages, yesterday —-even though that post was published late yesterday. And this morning, I am receiving tons of e-mails from the InTrade and TradeSports traders (they are often the same people).
My reasoning:
- InTrade is the twin site of TradeSports.
- The closure of TradeSports was sudden.
- The TradeSports owners have closed shop less than 2 months before the SuperBowl —-the biggest $$$ drawer.
- Now that the 2008 US presidential elections are over, the InTrade heyday is over. No more liquidity. No more media coverage. See you in 2010 and 2012.
- If TradeSports couldn’-t survive the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006, I don’-t see how a lean InTrade could do.
- InTrade CEO John Delaney is not a truthful person. It is unlikely that any statement from him about the viability of InTrade should be taken seriously.
- Midas Oracle used to received many daily server requests from the InTrade-TradeSports team in Ireland. The recent web stats show a sudden drop. This might signal that some key employees are in vacation —-or have been laid off.
- UPDATE: They seem now unable to expire a contract in the evening, Irish time.
TAKEAWAY:
- The InTrade traders should prepare themselves for the worse —-the sudden closure of InTrade.
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Chris F. Masse