Here is a CNET article on how to fix the US patent system.
Share:
Patenting the prediction markets?
Reply
Tag Archives: prediction markets
MicroSoft have patented the prediction markets.
Well, at least, one aspect of the prediction markets.
Uniited States Patent Application:
CONTINUOUS BETTING INTERFACE TO PREDICTION MARKET
Abstract
A user participates in trading securities in a prediction market which represent different outcomes of an event, using an interface which allows the user to understand a trade in terms of a bet. The interface also allows the user to explore different bet amounts while receiving feedback on potential payoffs in real time. In one approach, a tool is used which is moved in one direction by the user to indicate a larger trade for an outcome, or in the opposite direction to indicate a larger trade against the outcome. A bet for an outcome can be translated into a purchase of a corresponding security which represents the outcome. A bet against a particular outcome can be translated into a purchase of securities which represents all other outcomes. The user interfaces hides complexities of the market from the user while surfacing relevant information.
Inventors: BERG- HENRY G.- (Redmond, WA) – PROEBSTING- TODD A.- (Redmond, WA)
I won’-t comment on this, because I believe that the US patent system is broken, generally speaking.
What prediction markets can learn from Twitter – REDUX
S-I-M-P-L-I-C-I-T-Y + C-U-S-T-O-M-I-Z-A-T-I-O-N
Twitter is a very simplistic core. Around that core is a whole ecosystem that adds value to Twitter. You have a large choice of “-Twitter clients”-, and there are plenty of websites out there that complement the basic Twitter service.
It is the anti-BetFair case. The future prediction exchanges will be built around a simplistic core, and there will be plenty of add-ons and complimentary services —-all of which will be optional, so as not to scare off the newbies.
Why CrowdCast ditched Robin Hansons MSR as the engine of its IAM software
–
Leslie Fine of CrowdCast:
Chris,
As Emile points out, in 2003 I started experimenting with (and empirically validating) alternatives to the traditional stock-market metaphor that will be more viable in corporate settings. We found the level of confusion and lack of interest in the usual fare led to a death spiral of disuse and inaccuracy. BRAIN was a first stake in the ground in prediction market mechanism design with usability as a fundamental premise.
When I joined Crowdcast (then Xpree) in August of 2008, Mat and the team already recognized the confusion around, and consequent poor adoption of, the MSR mechanism. The number of messages I fielded in my first month here asking me to explain pricing, shorting, how to make money, etc. was astounding. We all knew that we had to start from scratch, and rebuild a mechanism that was easy to use, expressive both in terms of the question one can ask and the message space in which one can answer, and provided a high level of user engagement. We have abandoned the MSR in favor of a new method that users are already finding much simpler and that requires a lower level of participation and sophistication than the usual stock market analogy.
I wish I could go into more detail. However, we need to keep a little bit of a lid on things for our upcoming launch. I can only beg your patience a little while longer, and I hope you will judge our offering worth the wait.
Regards,
Leslie
Nota Bene: IAM = information aggregation mechanism
UPDATE: They are out with their new collective forecasting mechanism.
Share This:
Flawed New Hampshire polls = Non-accurate New Hampshire prediction markets
The most comprehensive analysis ever conducted of presidential primary polls:
Via Mister the Great Research Scientist David Pennock –-who is an indispensable element of the field of prediction markets.
As I blogged many times, prediction markets react to polls…- See the addendum below…- – [UPDATE: See also Jed’s comment.] – Prediction markets should not be hyped as crystal balls, but simply as an objective and continuous way to aggregate expectations. So, if you think of it, their social utility is much smaller than what the advocates of the “-idea futures”-, “-wisdom of crowds”- or “-collective intelligence”- concepts told us. Much, much, much, much smaller…- They all make the mistake to put accuracy forward. (By the way, somewhat related to that issue, please go reading the dialog between Robin Hanson and Emile Servan-Schreiber.)
–
Addendum
–
California Institute of Technology economist Charles Plott:
What you’-re doing is collecting bits and pieces of information and aggregating it so we can watch it and understand what people know. People picked this up and called it the “-wisdom of crowds”- and other things, but a lot of that is just hype.
–
New Hampshire – The Democrats
–
The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100.
–
New Hampshire – The Republicans
–
The John McCain event derivative was expired to 100.
–
No TweetBacks yet. (Be the first to Tweet this post)
Swine Flu Prediction Markets
eLab eXchange – Which real estate search site will see the most traffic?
The eLab eXchange is up and running again with new markets and more to come on a regular basis!
Spring is the traditional home buying season and many real estate professionals are predicting a significant “-spring bounce.”- Will it happen? Try your hand at predicting the rise (or fall) in web traffic to 5 popular real estate search sites.
If you haven’t visited us lately, come back and see what we’ve got for you to judge: http://elabexchange.com.
Judge right and you can win $25 and have a chance to win the quarterly mega-prize.
Hope to see you soon,
Lawrence D. Wright, Ph.D.
Research Associate, UCR eLab eXchange
The truth about (enterprise) prediction markets
Paul Hewitt:
[…] In virtually every case, the prediction market forecast is closer to the official HP forecast than it is to the actual outcome. Perhaps these markets are better at forecasting the forecast than they are at forecasting the outcome! Looking further into the results, while most of the predictions have a smaller error than the HP official forecasts, the differences are, in most cases, quite small. For example, in Event 3, the HP forecast error was 59.549% vs. 53.333% for the prediction market. They’re both really poor forecasts. To the decision-maker, the difference between these forecasts is not material.
There were eight markets that had HP official forecasts. In four of these (50%), the forecast error was greater than 25%. Even though, only three of the prediction market forecast errors were greater than 25%, this can hardly be a ringing endorsement for the accuracy of prediction markets (at least in this study). […]
To the despair of the Nashville imbecile, Paul’-s analysis is quite similar to mine (circa February 14, 2009):
The prediction market technology is not a disruptive technology, and the social utility of the prediction markets is marginal. Number one, the aggregated information has value only for the totally uninformed people (a group that comprises those who overly obsess with prediction markets and have a narrow cultural universe). Number two, the added accuracy (if any) is minute, and, anyway, doesn’t fill up the gap between expectations and omniscience (which is how people judge forecasters). In our view, the social utility of the prediction markets lays in efficiency, not in accuracy. In complicated situations, the prediction markets integrate expectations (informed by facts and expertise) much faster than the mass media do. Their accuracy/efficiency is their uniqueness. It is their velocity that we should put to work.
Prediction markets are not a disruptive technology, but merely another means of forecasting.
Go reading Paul’-s analysis in full.
I would like to add 2 things to Paul’-s conclusion:
- We have been lied to about the real value of the prediction markets. Part of the “-field of prediction markets”- (which is a terminology that encompasses more people and organizations than just the prediction market industry) is made up of liars who live by the hype and will die by the hype.
- Prediction markets have value in specific cases where it could be demonstrated that an information aggregation mechanism is the appropriate method that should be put at work in those cases (and not in others). Neither the Ivory Tower economic canaries nor the self-described prediction market “-practitioners”- have done this job.
Max Keiser: Je suis un artiste incompris.
[…] What I think PirateMyFilm will bring to the copyright reform party is the idea that films and music can be collectively financed, i.e., crowd financed, with both the artistic creator and the art consumer participating in the revenue streams.
To me, economics, markets and finance are an artistic medium in their own right and, as such, can be modeled, molded, manufactured and modified in artistic ways reflecting self expression as easily as paint, words, clay or plastic.
All of the projects I’ve been involved with for the past 15 years: [Hollywood Stock Exchange], KarmaBanque, GulagWealthFund, PirateMyFilm and my yet-to-be-publish novel, “Buy Love, Sell Fear,” all share this common characteristic of seeing price discovery and market making as a form of self expression and artistic freedom.
Prediction markets about science and technology
http://science.newsfutures.com/
NewsFutures + Science &- Vie (a science magazine published in the F country)
In French, alas, but I am sure Emile would lend the same technology to some English-speaking magazines in the U.S. or the U.K. that would want to open the same kind of prediction exchange for science.