Spot the comments in the following posts:
– Robin Hanson to Paul Hewitt –- #1
– Robin Hanson to Paul Hewitt –- #2
Robin Hanson cant ignore Paul Hewitt anymore.
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Tag Archives: prediction markets
Paul Hewitt doubts.
Finally, we need to know if this was only possible, because it was a fairly simple experimental model. Will the same decision-maker’s ability exist in extremely complex public policy markets?
Could think tanks impact the socially valuable prediction markets?
The health-care debacle on InTrade
[The Intrade event derivative traders] “-are getting more and more alienated by the actions and judgments of Intrade’-s management.”-
Is InTrade mis-managed? Many people are starting to think so, apparently. Still think that Chris Masse of Midas Oracle is too much critical of InTrade, my dear Chuck?
Prediction Markets @ Singularity University
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Our platform offers a true double-auction trading engine, not a scoring-rule disguised as a market.
That is from our good friend Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures, who is participating in the discussion on the LinkedIn group on prediction markets.
Go read his comment.
Also look at the 2 other threads.
The prediction market industry ditches John Maloney -finally.
It was about time, and it is good news.
From: Emile Servan-Schreiber, NewsFutures
To: all friends of prediction markets:
A number of us have been talking recently and we are in agreement that the existing forums for prediction market enthusiasts and watchers, owned and controlled by single individuals, are lacking. We think the industry deserves its own independent, open, community-owned discussion forum. As such, we have created a new Google Group dedicated to fostering and furthering high-quality open debate and communication about prediction markets: the R&-D, the theory, the practice, the industry developments and upcoming events.
We strive for an open discussion and we commit to run the group with transparency, openness, objectivity, and independence. But we also believe some ground rules are needed to maintain a high quality of conversation that minimizes advertising, second-hand PR, or anyone monopolizing the conversation. We think some vigilance along those lines will make a positive difference in the communication and discussion. We hope you do too!
To join our new discussion group, click here:
http://groups.google.com/group/prediction-markets-open-discussion
Sincerely,
Oliver Bernhard Pedersen
Jed Christiansen
Bo Cowgill
Forrest Nelson
David Pennock
Emile Servan-Schreiber
Adam Siegel
Justin Wolfers
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Lets boycott the $400 vendor conference on prediction markets.
I renew my boycott on the $400 vendor conference on prediction markets.
As I said many times, do not pay anything (not even $4) to listen to vendors’- marketing message —-and to illuminated academics bought by these vendors.
They all exaggerate the usefulness of the prediction markets.
And beware that phone-booth conference organizer who hides under a female account and a “-legal assistant”- account on that e-mailing list.
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2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race: Was Nate Silvers prediction more accurate than InTrades?
Nate Silver’-s prediction (November 2, 2009): “-I’-d make Christie about the 4:3 favorite.”-
[ UPDATE: Nate Silver’s prediction post-mortem on the 2009 US elections.]
You can see that days before Elections 2009, InTrade was too heavy on Corzine:
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What creates prosperity is limited government. – Dixit John Stossel.
John Stossel (spot the intro where he says he loves InTrade):