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Tag Archives: prediction markets
Predictalot = combinatorial prediction markets (a la Robin Hanson)
Hyping enterprise prediction markets in Mashable
Business leaders rely on metrics and data to inform decisions around new products and opportunities, but traditional forecasting methods suffer from bias and lack of first-hand information. That’s why business forecasting is an ideal target for the application of crowd wisdom. While bets are made anonymously, some prediction market software applications have built-in reward systems for accurate forecasters. And the accuracy of prediction markets over traditional forecasting methods is proven again and again. […] Prediction markets will then aggregate this knowledge to produce actionable, people-powered forecasts. The result is an ultra-rich information source that will lay the foundation for smarter, better-informed company decisions. […]
HSX-founder Max Keiser on the Cantor Exchange – [VIDEO]
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Jason Ruspini tells me that CNBC reports that the CFTC “-lifted its stay”- on the Cantor Exchange application yesterday. CNBC is going to interview Rich Jaycobs, today.
PS: You can play for free at:
Robin Hansons blah blah on futarchy (using conditional prediction markets to govern a country) – [VIDEO]
Robin Hanson debates a Mencius Moldbug on prediction markets, decision markets, and…- futarchy:
Foresight 2010 debate: Futarchy from Monica Anderson on Vimeo.
Download this post to watch the video —-if your feed reader does not show it to you.
CrowdCast is an enterprise software platform that helps companies make better forecasts by tapping the knowledge stored in their employees.
New NewsFutures prediction exchange in France
http://predipol.newsfutures.com/ —- play-money
And Today’-s Le Figaro features prediction markets, Emile tells me…- 
«Du coup, assure Emile Servan-Schreiber, on ne lit plus les articles de la meme maniere, un peu comme un analyste financier qui traque l’-info pour ensuite s’-en servir dans ses recommandations d’-investissement.»
Experts trading on prediction markets
Top tier sports, national elections, and Hollywood releases are all arenas in which all the information one might analyze is already pretty much public. There are many methods for predicting these outcomes, and I wouldn’t argue that prediction markets have a huge advantage in these arenas. The markets where I expect PMs to have an advantage are where there are experts who, given an incentive, could share (or discover) information that’s not already public, and where you don’t already have an enormous crowd trying to figure out the answer. Certainly it’s fun to bet on your team or party, or to develop expertise on how the public will react to particular movies, but it’s not clear to me that we get better predictions in those areas.
This is also one of my criticisms of the Servan-Schreiber paper. While I believe there are probably markets in which the availability of serious money to be won could attract people who’d be willing to spend research in order to get a better answer, NFL sports isn’t an arena where spending thousands of dollars will help you uncover facts that aren’t already in the mainstream media.
When we talk about CEO markets, or product release dates, or market penetration numbers, we’re talking about [prediction] markets in which the information isn’t already out there, and some people will spend time and effort to ferret out relevant facts for reputation (we see this often on Foresight Exchange) or money.
ROBIN HANSON, WE DONT GIVE THE FIRST FIG ABOUT YOUR DEBATE WITH THAT MENCIUS MOLDBUG.
Vernon Smith is bullish on event derivative markets (a.k.a. prediction markets).
Vernon Smith (via):
So far as new applications of derivatives markets I think one possibility is we may see more people making, creating derivatives markets, betting markets on policy, public policy outcomes. We’-ve already seen that with regard to the Federal Reserve. There is a market now in which people are able to make, take positions on the likelihood of a change in the Federal Reserve Bank policy at their next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, so and these markets are concerned with the question of what the Federal Reserve Bank rate will be set at. So I think we may very well see more of these kinds of markets and this could very well provide some indication of how the participants in these markets evaluate some of the policy proposals that governments are making.
Watch the video (download this post if your feed reader does not show it to you):