Dear readers,
I am informing you of the removal of Texodus Predictions from my listing of prediction market consultants. The listing is intended to display serious and professionally minded consultants, only.
Thanks for your attention.
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Previously:
– How that prediction market consultant in Holland attracts economic advisers on the cheap
– I bet that those academic scholars…
Dear Mr. [PROFESSOR’S NAME GOES HERE],
I am writing on behalf of [PREDICTION MARKET SOFTWARE VENDOR’S NAME], a Netherlands based consulting firm, because our research has identified you as a scholar with some expertise in Prediction Markets or a related field. [THEY JUST SCRAPPED MIDAS ORACLE’S LISTINGS] We would like to assess your suitability and interest to join the panel of scientific advisors with [PREDICTION MARKET SOFTWARE VENDOR’S NAME] (www.url.com).
In doing so, we propose to explore your area of experience and knowledge of Prediction Markets. Having established this, we would like to list you as our scientific advisor on your area of expertise on Prediction Markets. This will allow us to seek your services for a negotiated fee, once your particular expertise in developing or interpreting a Prediction Market issue is required.
I trust this message clarifies in short the mutual benefits in our cooperation. Please feel free to contact me to discuss further details.
Sincerely,
[LOW-LEVEL EMPLOYEE’S NAME GOES HERE]
Communications Manager
[PREDICTION MARKET SOFTWARE VENDOR’S NAME]
As an addendum of my recent post, let me clarify something. I was not talking about posting or commenting on Midas Oracle. I was talking, more generally, about prediction market consultants issuing statements (posted anywhere on the Web, and linked to from Midas Oracle) about the current state of the field and industry of prediction markets.
It is a tough reality…- get used to it, folks.
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Who are the prediction market consultants who took part of the conversation prompted by the publication of the devastating story by The Economist?
– Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets
– Mat Fogarty of CrowdCast
– George Tziralis of AskMarkets
– Jed Christiansen of Mercury
Notably absent from the conversation:
– David Perry of Consensus Point
– “-Chief Scientist”- Robin Hanson of Consensus Point
– Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures
– Chris Hibbert of Zocalo
– The HSX people
– The academic canaries who are over-quoted by the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal
Taking all this into account, I am updating my “-Consultants”- listing published at CFM. I am putting the consultants who participate in web conversations ahead of the others, and in bold, so as to signal to my numerous readers who they should contact first —-should they have any inquiry about enterprise prediction markets. And I will consider doing the same for the other Midas Oracle listings.
Starting today, there will be retaliations of measured and graduated amplitude against any prediction market people or prediction market company who snobs the important conversations about prediction markets —-which take place on Midas Oracle or elsewhere.
You can’-t be bragging everywhere that you are a “-prediction market expert”- and be absent from important conversations. If you don’-t converse with us, then you are not such a good expert —-”-you’-re the weakest link, bye bye.”-
NEXT: It is not about Midas Oracle…- It is about taking part of the conversation about (enterprise) prediction markets on the Web.
Here are short excerpts of the Forrester report on enterprise prediction markets and companies that provide software for enterprise prediction markets (e.g., Consensus Point –-see the full list of providers at the bottom of this post).
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The Forrester executive summary:
The “-wisdom of crowds”- is capturing the attention of corporate strategists across the globe, and, as a result, many are now looking to prediction markets — speculative markets in which traders collectively predict future events — to generate collective intelligence. For enterprises, prediction markets bring unique value: They focus on the future, aggregate diverse information pools that can be applied to multiple decision-making domains, create streams of actionable data suitable for executive decision-making, and can often cut through corporate politics and pressures at lower cost than traditional forecasting methods. Market researchers will, however, need to have an active hand in the management of these mechanisms, ensuring strong management support, the right incentives for traders, and a focus on appropriate questions. When executed properly, the value to the enterprise is enormous- as a result, Forrester believes that prediction markets will ultimately find a permanent home in the market research toolbox.
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For information on hard-copy or electronic reprints, please contact the Client Resource Center at +1 866.367.7378, +1 617.617.5730, or resourcecenter –-at–- forrester –-dot–- com. We offer quantity discounts and special pricing for academic and nonprofit institutions.
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My remark about the Forester report:
– It’-s a very good document.
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APPENDIX #1: Prediction Markets – DRM Review
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APPENDIX #2:
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Here is a list of companies that provide software for prediction markets:
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Inkling Markets – (MSR + AMM)
NewsFutures – (CDA + optional AMM + SR)
Consensus Point – (CDA + MSR + AMM)
Xpree – (MSR + AMM)
Zocalo – (CDA + MSR + AMM) – (open-source)
Nosco – (CDA + MSR + AMM)
QMarkets – (MSR + AMM)
Ask Markets – (MSR + AMM)
Exago Markets – (CDA + optional AMM)
Gexid – (?)
ProKons – (?)
Spigit – (?)
HSX Virtual Markets – (Virtual Specialist + AMM)
HubDub – (MSR + AMM) – (not licensed)
Yahoo!’-s Prediction Exchange – (MSR + AMM + DPMM) – (not licensed)
Google’-s Prediction Exchange – (CDA) – (not licensed)
MicroSoft PredictionPoint – (MSR + AMM) – (not licensed)
InTrade – (CDA + AMM for play money) – (not licensed)
TradeSports – (CDA + AMM for play money) – (not licensed)
Iowa Electronic Markets – (CDA) – (not licensed)
HedgeStreet – (CDA) – (not licensed)
TradeFair – (CDA) – (not licensed)
BetFair – (CDA) – (not licensed)
Trading Technologies International – (CDA) – (not for event derivatives)
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Here’-s a list of prediction market consultants:
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Robin Hanson – (George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.A.)
Inkling – URL: Inkling Markets – (Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
NewsFutures – (Maryland, U.S.A. &- Paris, France, E.U.)
Consensus Point – (Nashville, Tennessee, U.S.A. &- Calgary, Alberta, Canada)
Xpree – (California, U.S.A.)
Chris Hibbert – (California, U.S.A.)
Justin Wolfers – (University of Pennsylvania’-s Wharton Business School, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)
Koleman Strumpf – (University of Kansas, Kansas, U.S.A.)
Nosco – (Danemark, E.U.)
Qmarkets – (Israel)
Ask Markets – (Greece, E.U.)
HP Services &- HP Labs – (U.S.A.)
Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) &- HSX Research – (L.A., California, U.S.A.)
IntelliMarket Systems – (L.A., California, U.S.A.)
Gexid – Global Exchange for Information Derivatives – (Germany, E.U.)
ProKons – (Germany, E.U.)
Exago Markets – (Portugal, E.U.)
NimaniX – (Israel)
Michael Giberson – (Texas, U.S.A.)
Other Consulting Firms
McKinsey – (U.S.A.)
Accenture – (U.S.A.)
Gartner – (U.S.A.)
Forrester – (U.S.A.)
The Boston Consulting Group – (U.S.A.)
CapGemini – (U.S.A.)
KPMG – (U.S.A.)
Price Waterhouse Cooper – (U.S.A.)
Ernst &- Young – (U.S.A.)
Deloitte – (U.S.A.)
IBM – (U.S.A.)
EDS – (U.S.A.)
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Robin Hanson is now Chief Scientist of Consensus Point.
Here’-s the expanded list of Consensus Point customers —-Fortune-500 firms, mainly.
Here’-s their definition of what is a prediction market.
Here’-s their product page.
With Inkling Markets and NewsFutures, Consensus Point is the co-leader in the enterprise prediction markets space.
Best wishes to all of them.
Are you really a “-prediction market consultant”- when your occupation is actually to take courses in school?
I’-d answer “-no”-.
Best wishes to him. Let’-s see how the situation evolves later on.
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As I understand it:
– Prediction market consultancy in Portugal-
– They probably licensed Xpree‘-s software for enterprise prediction markets. UPDATE: They created their own software for enterprise prediction markets.
Best wishes to them.
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Inking Markets and NewsFutures are graded 6 / 10.
Consensus Point and Xpree are graded 5 / 10.
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My great friend David Perry of Consensus Point is making a strategic mistake by insisting on discretion and secrecy.
I told him 10 times.
To no avail.
Pissing in a violin in order to create a symphony would have been more fruitful.
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PageRank is important.
One day, we will learn in the Wall Street Journal that a Fortune-500 CEO is fired by the board for a low PageRank.
That will happen one day- you will see.
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The Prediction Market Consultants
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Consultants
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Inkling – URL: Inkling Markets – (Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
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Consensus Point – (Nashville, Tennessee, U.S.A. &- Calgary, Alberta, Canada)
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NewsFutures – (Maryland, U.S.A. &- Paris, France, E.U.)
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Xpree – (U.S.A.)
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HP Services – HP Labs – (U.S.A.)
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Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) &- HSX Research – (L.A., California, U.S.A.)
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Chris Hibbert – (California, U.S.A.)
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Robin Hanson – (George Mason U., Virginia, U.S.A.)
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Justin Wolfers – (U. of Pennsylvania’-s Wharton business school, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)
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Koleman Strumpf – (U. of Kansas, Kansas, U.S.A.)
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Michael Giberson – (Virginia, U.S.A.)
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Robert Hahn – (American Enterprise Institute, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.)
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IntelliMarket Systems – (L.A., California, U.S.A.)
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Mercury Research and Consulting – (United Kingdom, E.U.)
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Ask Markets – (Greece, E.U.)
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Gexid – Global Exchange for Information Derivatives – (Germany, E.U.)
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Nosco – (Danemark, E.U.)
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Qmarkets – (Israel)
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ProKons – (Germany)
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Hive Insight – (Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina, U.S.A. &- London, U.K., E.U.)
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Foresight Markets – (??)
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NimaniX – (Israel)
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PrediCom – (London, United Kingdom, E.U.)
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
