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NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: Prediction markets are for fools. They might work for a binary election, but not in the Fourth Quadrant.

Posted on September 16, 2008 by admin

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Posted in Analysis (Meta) | Tagged Arnold Kling, Finance, Forecasting, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Nassim Taleb, prediction makets | 1 Reply

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2008 US presidential elections accuracy Barack Obama BetFair Betting betting exchanges betting markets CFTC Collective Forecasting collective intelligence corporate prediction markets enterprise prediction markets event derivative exchanges event derivative markets event derivatives Finance financial markets Forecasting Gambling Google HubDub Humor internal prediction markets InTrade John Delaney Justin Wolfers laws marketing Midas Oracle NewsFutures ntubbbb Politics polls prediction exchanges prediction markets Predictions private prediction markets real-money prediction markets Regulations Robin Hanson TradeSports US economy US politics US presidential elections wisdom of crowds

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peter on In Q1, the iPad was equal to 7% of the PC market. Now, it’s at 11%. — [LINK]
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