How can you assess the impact of Colin Powell’-s endorsement of Barack Obama? You can’-t.
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#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets
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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out…- Intelligence in, intelligence out…-
A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.
Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.
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More Info:
– The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts
– Prediction Market Science
– The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets
– All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets
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#2. Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets
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Put your mouse on your selected chart, right-click, and open the link in another browser tab to get directed to the prediction market page of your favorite exchange.
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2008 US Elections
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InTrade
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2008 US Electoral College
2008 Electoral Map Prediction = InTrade – Electoral College Prediction Markets = Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland = electoralmarkets.com
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– This is a dynamic chart, which is up to date. Click on the image, and open the website in another browser tab to get the bigger version.
How frequent are arbitrage opportunities such as the following?
In addition to title, the reverse is true of OBAMA/DEM.
Do traders really think there’-s some probability of McCain being elected as an idependent and Obama being replaced as the Democrat nominee?
Via Marginal Revolution
P(tax hike / McCain) = 74%.
APPENDIX: Robin Hanson does not know yet who he is going to vote for, in November 2008…- and feels that no scholar can help him.
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#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets
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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out…- Intelligence in, intelligence out…-
A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.
Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.
–
More Info:
– The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts
– Prediction Market Science
– The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets
– All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets
–
–
#2. Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets
–
Put your mouse on your selected chart, right-click, and open the link in another browser tab to get directed to the prediction market page of your favorite exchange.
–
–
InTrade
–
2008 US Electoral College
2008 Electoral Map Prediction = InTrade – Electoral College Prediction Markets = Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland = electoralmarkets.com
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– This is a dynamic chart, which is up to date. Click on the image, and open the website in another browser tab to get the bigger version.
Cross-posted on Oddhead Blog.
The Yahoo! News Political Dashboard has re-launched for the general election stretch run of the 2008 US Presidential election.
From the main map you can see the status of the election in every state according to either polls or Intrade prediction market odds. Hover your mouse over a state to see current numbers or click on a state to see historical trends. On the side, you can see search trends, blogs, news, and demographic breakdowns at national and state levels.
You can also “-create your own scenario”- by picking who will win in every state. You can save and share your prediction and compare against markets, polls, history, or celebrities. More on ycorpblog.
Readers will be happy to see more thorough and prominent integration of prediction market prices compared to the primary election dashboard. Is that good enough to quiet Chris’-s whining?
In the PM view, states are colored either bright red or bright blue, regardless of how close the race is in that state. To see a visualization that blends colors to reflect the tightness of the race, see electoralmarkets.com.
Yahoo! News also offers a candidate badge that you can display on your blog declaring your choice. The badge features national-level polls, prediction markets, search buzz, and money raised.
Interesting blog post from Lance Fortnow on the VP prediction markets. (I will soon blog about those.)
InTrade – Electoral Markets Map
Their brand-new widget:
The title of the Politico story is, “-Scholars question Palin credentials“-.
Now, read the update to get a good laugh.
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