Professor Mark Perry is wrong to yell victory. Evaluating probabilistic predictions is tougher than one thinks.
Source: InTrade
Oscars 2010 Post-Mortem – InTrade Prediction Markets
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Tag Archives: Oscars
Conditional Likelihood Loss
– Nate Silver: 0.6032
– InTrade: 0.3699
InTrade looks much better than Nate Silver on the Oscars 2009.
Waiting for the HubDub numbers, now. Nigel, are you napping or what?
HubDub takes home the Gold at the Oscars.
Well the Oscars have come and gone and although most pundits are chattering about Slumdog’-s amazing 8 wins and Hugh Jackman’-s dulcet tones, I’-m more impressed by Hubdub’-s amazing success.
Out of the major races, we got EVERY SINGLE ONE RIGHT. We were also the only major prediction exchange to correctly predict the Best Actor race (Betfair, HSX, InTrade, Newsfutures and even Nate Silver all gave the gold to Mickey Rourke). Also, in five of the big 6 races, we showed higher confidence than InTrade predictors.
| Hubdub | InTrade | |
| Best Picture | 98% | 90% |
| Best Director | 76% | 90% |
| Best Actor | 63% | 33.5% (wrong) |
| Best Actress | 87% | 85% |
| Best Sup Actor | 100% | 95% |
| Best Sup Actress | 64% | 58.8% |
From the complete 24 award lineup, we nailed 19, generally by impressive condifence margins. Check out all of our settled markets here.
Not only have Hubdubbers had a successful night, each of my personal Oscar predictions were correct and I added another 40 thousand Hubbucks to my coffers. Award season is now finally behind us, but American Idol is just getting started!
Crossposted from Newspundits
OSCARS 2008: The Hollywood Stock Exchange has been more accurate than InTrade.
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…- dixit James Surowiecki (commenting on Felix Salmon’-s post):
Interesting. The Hollywood Stock Exchange, not surprisingly, did better [than InTrade]. Cotillard was, as at Intrade, a comfortable second favorite. But so too was Swinton —- in fact, she was even more of a second favorite, as her price was very close to Blanchett’-s when the market closed. In fact, if you look at her chart:
http://movies.hsx.com/servlet/SecurityDetail?symbol=A8TSWit’-s hard not to conclude that the market was really incorporating new information in the week leading up to the ceremony.
I didn’-t follow the Hollywood Stock Exchange [*] (or even BetFair) closely for the Oscars 2008, but here are InTrade’-s expired event derivatives (event futures):
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[*] UPDATE: HSX claims a 75% success rate.
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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out…- Intelligence in, intelligence out…-
A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.
Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.
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