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After NETeller, Citadel is out of the US market.
The Guardian:
The Vancouver-based ESI Entertainment, a rival firm which operates the payment processor Citadel, confirmed yesterday that it too was withdrawing from the US with immediate effect.
This is from TradeSports:
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Former Blog Posts:
– NETeller people arrested. TradeSports people, next??
– Internet Gambling Crisis – AGAIN
– NETeller yesterday, TradeSports-InTrade tomorrow?
– Using NETeller for TradeSports-InTrade, no more
– Gambling Enabler Neteller Craps Out.
– NETeller alternatives
– Which will be the next major sportsbook to leave the US market? – REDUX
Which will be the next major sportsbook to leave the US market? – REDUX
TEN CEO John Delaney’-s arrogance didn’-t go unnoticed by the TradeSports-InTrade traders. How come his own betting exchange wasn’-t included in the gambling industry prediction market??
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Todd73NJ:
How come TradeSports isn’-t listed on there…- since the contract will be on Intrade, which will be a separate company shortly, I don’-t think listing TS would be a crazy idea. Would probably be the highest volume traded of all of them.
I’-d trade the TS contract…- And I only use one of those other books regularly which I know will be the last one to fall for sure…- So I really only have interest in TS and World Sports Exchange
Abacus:
They used the term “-sportsbook”- so they could leave TS off by claiming it is an “-exchange”- and not a “-sportsbook”-.
Guys, I’-m glad you put it up but it is meaningless unless you include your own company.
Do the right thing and change the contract.
Suggested modification:
Next major online entertainment company to withdraw from the US:
Betcris
B*d*g
Greek
Sportsbook.com
Tradesports
W*ex
None
BetFair Multiples??
BetFair Multiples – in the Racing Post, page 89 – Thursday, January 18, 2007
I would appreciate if a U.K.-based Midas Oracle reader informed me or sent me excerpts. Thanks. Will make up to you. I heard that it means that BetFair is going to become a bookmaker, but I can’-t believe my eyes.
Betfair previously only accepted single bets on match results forcing punters wishing to make multiple match bets – such as trebles and accumulators – to go to traditional firms like William Hill and Ladbrokes.
But now, in a radical move, the Hammersmith based company are ready to accept multiples. In a major shift in strategy, Betfair itself will act as the bookmaker offering odds taken from their person-to-person singles football markets.
The company claim they will invariably offer better odds than High Street rivals even allowing for five per cent commission. Steve High, Betfair’-s product manager, said: “-Our aim is to be the biggest online betting company.”-
(Thanks to Fabian John for the link.)
Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- Robin Hanson wants to rule the world —just as CEOs and heads of states do for a living.
- Predictify got funded… Great for those who will be hired… But is it a good thing, overall?
- Nassim Nicholas Taleb likens modern-day financial markets to medicine in the 1800s, when going to a hospital in London or Paris multiplied your risk of death by four times, he says. Similarly, quants increase risk by deploying flawed financial tools designed to reduce it, he argues.
- TradeSports-InTrade — Check Deposits
- BetFair Australia fought for free trade across Australian state boundaries… and won.
Discussion about applicability of prediction markets for long-term prediction!
For now, prediction markets are mostly used for short- or mid-term prognosis horizons.
The pay-off for the traders is contingent upon the real event. That means they have to wait until the actual event occurs, before they know what their prognosis is worth and what the pay-off for each contract is.
What about long-term events?
For long-term prediction, this doesn’t seem to be a practicable way. Waiting till 2020 when e.g. the real unemployment rate is published does not provide an incentive to trade shares for this.
But what could be a way to construe a reasonable pay-off function?
One possible approach by Prof. Spann at the University of Passau is to run two separate prediction markets concurrently. All information about prices, traders etc. of market A would not available for traders of market B and contrary.
The pay-off for Market A would be the final price of Market B and vice versa.
So it is possible to run an virtual market for e.g. 2 months predicting the outcome of an event in 2020.Another way is to let an expert(s) assess the event an use his (their) opinions as the pay-off function.
Furthermore the own end-price of the market could be the pay-off. But then manipulation is to be expected.
I’-m looking forward to discuss this challenge with you!
P.S. www.Ideosphere.com seems to be a prediction market for long term predictions, but they don’t provide a solution for the problem.
Midas Oracle is forbidden on the TradeSports-InTrade forum.
“-Brad”- and “-Caveat Bettor”-, among others, are allowed to pitch their site or blog on the TradeSports-InTrade forum. When I did the same in October 2006, my posting was immediately deleted. Something I said???
Note: CFM (the vortal on event derivatives, prediction markets and prediction exchanges) and the two Midas Oracle blogs (Midas Oracle .ORG and Midas Oracle .NET) contains hundreds, if not thousands, of outbounds links to TradeSports-InTrade.
My Question To Mike Linskvayer: Mike, is there a Web-based tool somewhere that would scan all the webpages of my site and blogs, and count how many outbound links to TradeSports-InTrade there are?
NETeller yesterday, TradeSports-InTrade tomorrow?
Via Betting Market at Delicious (which you may bookmark if you wish to get further links on the new internet Gambling crisis, later on this week):
– United States of America v. Stephen Eric Lawrence
– United States of America v. John David Legebvre
– Loosely related: Gary Kaplan (BetOnSports) – InterPol – (Frauds, Thefts) – [Note: From memory, Robin Hanson participated in a pro-gambling conference sponsored by BetOnSports, some years ago. Addendum: With Koleman Strumpf. The link.]
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– Does the U.S. government consider the offshore, real-money prediction exchanges (a.k.a. betting exchanges) as part of the “-internet gambling industry”- and will it enforce the Internet Gambling Prohibition and Enforcement Act (H.R. 4411) against TradeSports-InTrade?
– Do TEN CEO John Delaney and the TEN shareholders (venture capitalists and angel investors) have knowledge that they have been participating in a criminal activity in the United States?
1. Criminal laws exist in the United States that prohibit persons from promoting certain forms of gambling.
2. Criminal laws exist in the United States that prohibit the transmission of funds that are known to have been derived from criminal activity or are intended to promote criminal activity.
Internet Gambling Crisis – AGAIN
Business Week (mirror at Forbes):
FBI Assistant Director Mark J. Mershon said the multibillion-dollar online gambling industry was “-a colossal criminal enterprise masquerading as legitimate business.”-
Does the U.S. government put real-money prediction exchanges (e.g., TradeSports-InTrade) in the perimeter of the “-gambling industry”-? If yes, then TradeSports-InTrade is dead on arrival (D.O.A.). If not, as stated by TEN CEO John Delaney (who believes that they are after bookmakers and sportsbooks, only), then what we need is a statement from the U.S. government that it won’-t touch the offshore, real-money prediction exchanges.
In the absence of such an exoneration, is it rational to predict the death of TradeSports-InTrade? If the U.S. government goes after TEN’-s American shareholders (venture capitalists and angel investors), they will fly away like frightened pigeons —-if that’-s not done already (think “-re-organization”-). I may be wrong but I believe that TEN is not yet profitable —-especially after the killing of their financial prediction markets, following the CFTC fine.
All this is very sad for us who believe in real-money prediction markets.
The arrest of TEN CEO John Delaney on U.S. soil (in a phone-booth conference room, for instance) could be interesting in that it would generate a wave of supportive statements from a bunch of American economists —-including some of the IEM gang members (e.g., Ms. Berg). We could have a repetition of the DARPA’-s FutureMAP PAM effect —-a controversy on real-money prediction markets hitting the print Press, which, short-term, we would lose, but which, long term, would be beneficial to the whole industry. The economists yelling “-fire”- would attract the attention of the private decision makers reading the New York Times and Wall Street Journal, and the next step would be to turn these prospects into clients of prediction market software vendors.
What the hell is a predicted probability??
In response to my previous rant, I’-m told that:
#1. My criticism (expressed for the third time) about the bad usability of their big, rounded button has finally be digested.
#2. The “-home page”- they are referring to in their blog post is not the frontpage, but the home page for the Inkling play-money prediction markets. Ah. So I went there again, and I saw this:
Will Google’-s stock price hit $600 before Dec. 31, 2007?
current prediction
The predicted probability is 57.5%
Bad. Better: The current probability for the $600 outcome is 57.5% —-so, yes, Inkling is predicting that Google’-s stock price will hit the $600 mark before Dec. 31, 2007.
Global warming contract suggestion
How about a contract series as follows, based on NASA’-s Goddard Institute for Space Studies global temperature (C) data for surface air temperature change, using 1950-81 as baseline:
GISS.2007.ANNUAL.MEAN<-.50
GISS.2007.ANNUAL.MEAN>-.50
GISS.2007.ANNUAL.MEAN>-.60
GISS.2007.ANNUAL.MEAN>-.70
The data series can be found here. Some pretty graphs here.
Cross posted from CaveatBettor.