Super Bowl Analysis Highlights – MR Comments

No Gravatar

The Marginal Revolution commenters on Keith Jacks Gamble&#8217-s Super Bowl Analysis Highlights:

very interesting, but I disagree with his assignment of results to individual players. The results of individual plays, and their effect on the probabilities, depend on a lot of factors, not least play selection.
Posted by: Bernard Yomtov at Feb 11, 2007 12:33:55 PM

Its ludicrous to imagine that the error rate of a betting market is as low as implied. Consider that in the Florida-Ohio State game, the market was off by several touchdowns.
Posted by: Vish Subramanian at Feb 11, 2007 2:22:05 PM

This is an interesting idea, but it assigns no value to the worth of Dominic Rhodes wearing out the Bears&#8217- defensive players with his bruising running, or the clock control and just plain ball control Joseph Addai contributed to. It also fails to account for things like offensive line play.
Posted by: Mick at Feb 12, 2007 5:22:36 PM

Also, betting lines are set up to get equal money on both sides of the coin, so the betting public is supposed to be 50/50 winners and losers. Underdogs had a winning record in the NFL this year, and a runaway winning record against the spread.
Posted by: Mick at Feb 12, 2007 5:24:23 PM

An Analysis of the 2007 Superbowl Using Price Changes on TradeSports

No Gravatar

An Analysis of the Superbowl Using Price Changes on an Online Prediction Exchange – (TradeSports) – (PDF) – by Keith Jacks Gamble – 2007-02-08

ABSTRACT: I analyze Superbowl XLI by matching price changes for a futures contract on the winner to play-by-play data. The price change following a play measures the impact of that play on the market’s expectation of which team will win. Thus, these price changes identify the relative importance of each play in determining the outcome. Four of the top five impact plays of the game were turnovers, led by Kelvin Hayden’s interception return for a touchdown. These price changes also provide a new statistic for measuring and comparing players’ performances. Despite winning the Most Valuable Player Award, Payton Manning ranks 10th on the list of positive impact players for the Colts. By far the greatest contributor to the Colts’ victory was Rex Grossman, whose poor play for the Bears contributed twice as much as the top performing Colt.

CONCLUSION: This analysis of Superbowl XLI shows how price changes on an online exchange can be used to measure the impact of each play on the final outcome. […]

NOTE: This is just for the openers. It could be that Keith Jacks Gamble will publish a blog post on Midas Oracle, soon &#8212-if he wishes.

An invitation to join the simExchange beta

No Gravatar

The simExchange, a virtual video game stock exchange, is a new project to help gamers learn about upcoming video games and predict how well they will sell. Countless new games are on the horizon all the time and it is too time consuming to read up on all of them. The simExchange applies the Wisdom of the Crowds concept to upcoming video games. You can quickly identify the most anticipated upcoming games by simply checking out the most valued game stocks or the most traded game stocks.

Users submit the games they want to trade. Users also submit articles, images, and videos about the games. The community votes through a unique “content bidding system” to measure the value of submitted content to the community. This makes it easier for users to learn about games by quickly seeing the most valuable content about the game available and allows traders to more easily value the game stocks up for trading.

The simExchange is also a great opportunity to learn about the stock market by trading stocks that gamers care about. Unlike many prediction markets, the simExchange follows real market mechanics, such as a double call auction order system. The simExchange allows players to actually short stocks.

Games Stocks:
– The stock price forecasts the game’s lifetime worldwide unit sales. 1 DKP corresponds to 10,000 copies sold.
– Game stocks are perpetual and are structured similar to real stocks.
– Users can submit the games they want listed on the simExchange for trading. Users bid on games to indicate demand for that game’s listing.
– Read more about the stock structure here.

Trading Features:
– A virtual stock market that follows real stock market mechanics such as a double call auction order book (CDA form prediction market).
– Users can place limit orders and short stocks
– Players learn to manage margin. Will receive margin calls and forced liquidation if leveraged position moves against them.
– Liquidity provided by automated and human market makers.

User Interface:
– AJAX interface enables user to dynamically pull up a stock’s order book by clicking on a stock. No need to enter stock prices.
– Option for basic trading (market orders with easy to understand bid and ask) or advanced trading featuring limit orders with Level II Order Book.
– Level II Order Book auto-updates best bids and asks orders.
– Portfolio, Quick Portfolio, and Order Status pages auto-update balance, margin, and positions.
– Find stocks by browsing genre or platform or searching title or summary content
– AJAX forms dynamically appear and change content

Content System:
– All game stocks are accompanied by a succinct but comprehensive summary so that traders do not need to leave the site to learn about the underlying game.
– Extensive resources provided by articles, images, and videos submitted by the community give traders quick access to the news that can move the stock.
– The community bids on content using the simExchange Content Bidding System to determine the value of the content to the community.
– The news aggregator is part of the overall simExchange game- players earn DKP from submitting valuable content and posting intelligent comments.

The simExchange is currently in public beta and I welcome anyone to join and share feedback.

If you would like to learn about the development of the simExchange, you can follow everything from the beginning by reading the simExchange Official Blog. The first post discussing how I came up with the idea starts here. We are also currently exploring ways to provide the simExchange technology to third-parties. You can always contact us through the form in the simExchange&#8217-s Help section.

17 New British Casinos

No Gravatar

Via Betting Market, the U.K. government:

After careful consideration of the proposals and all the relevant evidence against the remitted criteria, the Panel recommend that the area in which a regional casino should be licensed is the City of Manchester.

After careful consideration of the proposals and all the relevant evidence against the remitted criteria, the Panel recommend that the areas in which large casinos should be licensed are: Great YarmouthKingston-upon-HullLeedsMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesNewhamSolihull and Southampton.

After careful consideration of the proposals and all the relevant evidence against the remitted criteria, the Panel recommend that the areas in which small casinos should be licensed are: Bath [*] and North East SomersetDumfries and GallowayEast LindseyLutonScarboroughSwanseaTorbay and Wolverhampton.

[*] I love the City of Bath. It&#8217-s beautiful. There&#8217-s a good university, and there are Roman remains &#8212-the Roman &#8220-baths&#8221– naturally warm waters (hot springs). Plus, it&#8217-s not far away from Stonehenge. I recommend it.

&#8212-

OK, so the prediction market news of the day is that the super casino license (or &#8220-licence&#8221-, as they say) is granted to Manchester &#8212-while BetFair predicted Blackpool (62,5%). Let&#8217-s remember that Paris was the favorite to be the host city of the 2012 Olympics (it will be London):

Paris 2012 Olympics

&#8212-

TAKEAWAY: It&#8217-s very difficult to figure out what will be the decision of a small, secretive committee &#8212-whether it&#8217-s a group of aristocrats (International Olympic Committee) or a group of civil servants (U.K.&#8217-s Casino Advisory Panel).

Aloha, Poker Players Alliance

No Gravatar

As more prediction market enthusiasts in the U.S. reconcile themselves with eventual CFTC regulation, the Poker Players Alliance is making a bid to join the ranks of the privileged exemptions to UIGEA. Prediction markets have simply not been profitable enough to support a national lobby for a similar exemption. The CFTC route is cheaper and less controversial, though more restrictive.

Is there is room in the PPA&#8217-s tent for prediction market interests? Probably not, but it is worth looking into, especially since they are characterizing their request as a &#8220-skill game exemption&#8221-.

If not, while I don&#8217-t begrudge the PPA their relative progress, I would not be inclined to support their efforts to attain an exemption for the game. According to PPA President Michael Bocherek, &#8220-While we are working toward the short-term goal of a poker exemption, the PPA will also be laying the foundation for the eventual U.S. regulation of online poker. This is the only proven public policy for online gaming.&#8221-

Perhaps they ought to keep to their long-term goals, as in the short-term, poker is a game of chance.

You could say that these opinions are divisive, but I would counter that it&#8217-s up to the PPA to determine how specific their interests are. The more they act like a privilege-seeking special interest, the more my general libertarian support for all forms of legal gaming is trumped.

[Cross-posted from Risk Markets and Politics]

Previous blog posts by Jason Ruspini:

  • The CFTC safe-harbor option for event markets
  • CFTC regulation and election contracts
  • Asymmetry in Obama nomination market
  • Prediction Markets: Powerful enough to be dangerous?
  • 2009 tax futures yielding 1.5%
  • Intrade, with carry
  • Talking tax futures on BNN, Canada’s business channel

How about balanced budget contracts?

No Gravatar

Some think the US could have a balanced budget by 2008. If tax rates and economic growth rates remain unchanged, I would buy the 2008 contract in size.

If the Democrats roll back the capital gains and dividend tax cuts, then I would sell a little 2008.

Cross-posted from CaveatBettor.

Previous blog posts by Caveat Bettor:

  • Land-Ocean year-to-date temperatures 0.35 Celsius over baseline
  • Final InTrade v. Zogby Showdown Results
  • Intrade lists Global Warming Contracts!
  • Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday
  • Super Tuesday Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
  • The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
  • Zogby beats Intrade in predicting Nevada caucus winner Clinton.

Upgrading to Word Press 2.1

I&#8217-ll do the upgrading sometime this week &#8212-probably in the early morning (EST). New features:

Autosave makes sure you never lose a post again.
– Our new tabbed editor allows you to switch between WYSIWYG and code editing instantly while writing a post.
– The lossless XML import and export makes it easy for you to move your content between WordPress blogs.
Our completely redone visual editor also now includes spell checking.
– New search engine privacy option allows you take you to indicate your blog shouldn’t ping or be indexed by search engines like Google.
– You can set any “page” to be the front page of your site, and put the latest posts somewhere else, making it much easier to use WordPress as a content management system.
– Much more efficient database code, faster than previous versions. Domas Mituzas from MySQL went over all our queries with a fine-toothed comb.
– Links in your blogroll now support sub-categories and you can add categories on the fly.
– Redesigned login screen from the Shuttle project.
More AJAX to make custom fields, moderation, deletions, and more all faster. My favorite is the comments page, which new lets you approve or unapprove things instantly.
– Pages can now be drafts, or private.
– Our admin has been refreshed to load faster and be more visually consistent.
– The dashboard now instantly and brings RSS feeds asynchronously in the background.
– Comment feeds now include all the comments, not just the last 10.
– Better internationalization and support for right-to-left languages.
– The upload manager lets you easily manage all your uploads pictures, video, and audio.
– A new version of the Akismet plugin is bundled. [As long they don&#8217-t give me the option to de-activate Askimet for the comments, it won&#8217-t be useful for Midas Oracle. I installed another anti-spam plugin.]

That is all, folks. Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

Long-term housing derivatives?

No Gravatar

Tangentially related to the recurring long-term prediction markets discussion, I noticed at Economic Housing Derivatives that TFS London has launched a &#8220-Future House Price Index&#8221- extending to 2030.

A Reuters article says New indexes see UK house prices doubling by 2030:

The aim of the TFS FHP series of indexes, calculated using over-the-counter swaps based on the Halifax house price index (HPI) and traded by banks, was to raise the profile of British house price derivatives by expressing market expectations in more easily understandable terms.

I&#8217-m not at all certain whether banks are trading securities that expire in 2030 or this index is pure extrapolation. And despite the sensational &#8220-doubling&#8221- headline, the numbers (see the Economic Housing Derivatives post) seem to indicate a 2.7% annual increase, presumably not much above expected inflation.

CME housing futures go out no further than one year.

Something interesting, or move along?

Correction: The blog cited is called Housing Derivatives, not Economic Derivatives.