Deep Throat sells Harry Potter short.

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If there is a 50/50 chance of the epilogue being interpreted as part of the novel (I think it would be higher) and a high chance of a sad epilogue (telling Harry Potter will die after a life well lived), then I don&#8217-t think I would want to be long on survival.

Signed: Deep Throat

Previous blog posts by Deep Throat:

  • Who will write to the CFTC?
  • Why do BetFair Games (regulated in Malta, E.U.) have a timer on games?
  • Deep Throat on the idle Prediction Market Industry Association (PMIA)
  • IN-PLAY BETTING: BetFair is already compliant with the Gambling Commission’s first pointer.
  • Rumor Mill — Wednesday morning
  • Conference on Prediction Markets
  • How BetFair did treat its customers on the day that the BetFair Starting Price system crashed down

PROFESSOR KOLEMAN STRUMPF STILL DOUBTS THAT THERE HAS BEEN MANIPULATION OF THE HILLARY CLINTON EVENT DERIVATIVES.

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Koleman Strumpf on the Hillary Clinton prediction markets:

I think the market behavior since the original posting still could be consistent with no manipulation.

(1) At the time of my original post (Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market?), Clinton’s conditional probability of getting nominated was 65%. It is now about 60%.

(2) Is there any news which might explain this drop? Sure– the market has decided that Obama is a much stronger contender for the nomination (and conversely Hillary is weaker). Namely, since the end of May, Hillary’s nomination contract fell from 51 to 43 and Obama has risen from 29 to 38. If the market thinks that the nomination is more unclear, then it is more likely there will be a protracted fight, and, even if Hillary gets the nod, she will be weaker and not be as likely to win the general contest.

Previous: Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? – by Koleman Strumpf + Win Justin’s Money? (re: Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux.) – by Koleman Strumpf

Betcha.com: On Steamroller Justice and Reports of our Demise

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Yesterday, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer ran a story entitled &#8220-Betting web site&#8217-s computers seized.&#8221- Within hours, bloggers and other news outlets picked up the story and translated it into something akin to &#8220-Betcha shut down.&#8221-

Problem: the translation isn&#8217-t true. (WARNING: if tails of government bureaucrats running roughshod over its citizens turns your stomach, stop reading here.)

What&#8217-s Happening
What happened was this. Last Friday, Betcha&#8217-s attorneys and I met with the state Gambling Commission to address their concerns. They had us drive to their offices in Lacey, WA, about an hour from Betcha&#8217-s offices. The meeting lasted all of about five minutes, with it ending in a deputy commissioner handing us a pre-printed Cease and Desist order. I&#8217-ll attached a PDF copy of it later, but the gist of it was &#8220-shut down or else.&#8221- Why she couldn&#8217-t have told us this over the phone I am not sure &#8212- I suspect it had something to do with making my Friday afternoon a very expensive one. (Tax dollars hard at work.) At almost the exact same moment, Seattle lawyer Lee Rousso was, coincidentally, filing a lawsuit in state court asking the court to declare the state&#8217-s anti-Internet gambling ban unconstitutional. Although the law has previously been criticized on First Amendment grounds [1|2], and the Commission has taken positions in the past that appear pretty tough to square with any notion of free speech (an example), Mr. Rousso&#8217-s challenge is based on the Commerce Clause &#8212- that is, the law seeks to protect the in-state Native American casinos from out-of-state competition, and is therefore unconstitutional.

On Monday, I arrived to the offices early to unlock the doors so the raiders wouldn&#8217-t bust them down. (Not cheap to replace a busted down door.) A few hours later, Commission enforcers, indeed, showed up and took everything. Our books, our posters, my business cards &#8212- everything. (The warrant wasn&#8217-t limited – among other things, it included &#8220-stamps,&#8221- &#8220-printers,&#8221- &#8220-scanners,&#8221- &#8220-jewelry,&#8221- &#8220-envelopes&#8221-, &#8220-napkins&#8221-, &#8220-cardboard coasters&#8221- and &#8220-keys.&#8221-) No one from Betcha was there &#8212- not a good way to start the week, being on the business end of a roving commission. Ironically, my wife stopped by during the raid and chatted up Rick Herrington, the chief Raider (read: head of Commission enforcement.) When my wife asked Mr. Herrington whether they&#8217-d be selling our equipment on eBay, he shrugged his shoulders, as if to say &#8220-maybe yes, maybe no.&#8221- He then told her &#8220-Nick should have come to us first about this.&#8221- This exchange I find revealing: it seems that the Commission is more interested in ruining me and Betcha than anything else. Why? Because we&#8217-re near their turf.

As troubling was how the conversation continued. According to my wife, Mr. Herrington repeated several times &#8220-he&#8217-s breaking the law, he&#8217-s breaking the law.&#8221- When she told him that that was a judge&#8217-s decision, he replied &#8220-doesn&#8217-t matter, he&#8217-s still breaking the law.&#8221- (If that&#8217-s not guilty until proven innocent, I don&#8217-t know what is.)

On Tuesday, we petitioned a state court in Olympia to enjoin the Commission from this &#8220-seize and threaten now, ask questions later&#8221- approach. It almost never happens that a court will enjoin law enforcement from enforcing its version of the law, no matter how warped that version may be. This is an extraordinary remedy and we didn&#8217-t get it yesterday, although it wasn&#8217-t for lack of fantastic work by our lawyer.

The hearing wasn&#8217-t without substantial incident and irony. Apparently, although several people at both the Commission and Attorney General&#8217-s office had been served with our papers via fax, e-mail, and PDF, someone at the Commission did not receive an original copy of one of the documents, as required by the state service statute. As a result, we could not proceed until we could prove someone at the Commission had been served with an original copy of this document. We then had to race across Olympia to the Commission&#8217-s office in a nearby town to serve the one of the Commissioners himself &#8212- personally. (Not a single person in the legal department was working on that glorious 94-degree Tuesday &#8212- go figure.) The irony &#8212- exactitude matters big time to the Commission when it comes to serving paperwork that they already had. But precision in reading a criminal statute that may result in me doing years in the Gray Bar Hotel, not to mention wiping out a fair bit of investor capital and no less than seven years of man work &#8212- nah.

What&#8217-s Next
In terms of next steps, the situation is this. We are pursuing an action to get a court to declare Betcha legal. If the law and/or the Constitution matters in Washington (open question, that), I am confident Betcha will prevail. In the meantime, however, we face a Cease and Desist Order from a Commission that appears hell-bent on destroying Betcha at all costs. We&#8217-re going to review it in detail later today and decide on a course of action. We may have to take the betting-for-money part of the site down until we get on the other side of the steamroller.

You can rest assured, however, about our resolve. The government bureaucracy has been running roughshod over the citizens of this country for far too long. (Check out this book or BoilingFrog.com, among other sites, for some examples.) Prosecutors make up facts, legislators make it a crime to play poker in your own home, bureaucrats rewrite the laws, logic and the dictionary &#8212- and we&#8217-re all left at their mercy. The frog is boiling and the water&#8217-s getting hotter every day. I pledge to the friends and users of Betcha.com that I will do my part to turn the heat down. If that means rotting in jail, so be it.

Cross-posted from the Betcha.com blog

What should be Done about Manipulation of Prediction Markets?

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In “Is Manipulation Good for a Prediction Market,” Eric Zitzewitz seeks to counter my view that “Deep Pocketed Manipulators are a Prediction Market’s Friend” by suggesting that even if my argument is correct, manipulators still may be a net bad for prediction markets.

I argued that a manipulator ends up subsidizing the participation of informed traders in the market by putting money on uneconomic positions. Eric responded with three reasons that manipulation nonetheless may tend to undermine prediction markets. In brief (and in my words), he said:

  1. People have a distaste for behaviors which violate the spirit of the activity.
  2. The possibility of manipulation, and therefore a biased indicator, will lead decision makers to rely on less efficient methods for information gathering.
  3. Manipulation makes it harder to understand what is happening in the market – manipulation is harder to decode than noise – because the manipulator actively tries to trick the market.

I suspect Eric is right that many people will instinctively oppose manipulation– even when a manipulator&#8217-s actions comply with the explicit rules of the market, the conduct seems to violate the spirit of the enterprise. The manipulators aren&#8217-t betting that they can out predict you, they don&#8217-t care about out-predicting you, they are just using the market in the attempt to buy a signal for which they have a private value. This violation of the spirit of the enterprise probably strikes most people as just wrong.

I think the best response to instinctive opposition to manipulators is &#8220-get over it&#8221-. Hold your nose if you have to, but take as much of the manipulator’s money as you can. (If it troubles you to take advantage of manipulators this way, consider the public good you are doing by imposing a tax on undesirable behavior.)

Another obvious and useful response is to become more skilled at reading market prices, so as to not be readily fooled. In the face of a dramatic price change, consult other exchanges or the prices in related markets in order to gain context. Deploying such sophistication increases the cost and diminishes the usefulness of price manipulation.

The second and third points Eric makes suggests that the possibility of manipulation will reduce the value of prediction markets and lead decision makers to rely on noisier, but less manipulable tools for information gathering. (E.g., use expert forecasts instead of manipulable prediction markets.) In these cases, manipulation leads to real economic losses.

Useful responses here constitute a research program for the academics and market developers: what effects do various rules have on the potential for manipulation? what effects do the rules have on market efficiency? can manipulation be detected by analysis of trading patterns (perhaps something a prediction market could implement itself), or would more extensive investigations be necessary (likely beyond the capacity of a prediction market)?

Prediction markets, when they work well, create something of value: a price that can serve as a useful probability forecast of future events or conditions. If anyone relies on these prices to make decisions of economic significance, that reliance will create incentives for third parties to influence the prices. On these grounds I think the potential for manipulation is inherent in the enterprise.

So what? To some extent the natural balancing effects of the market will tend to counter manipulation, because manipulation provides a subsidy to participation by informed traders, and informed trading counters manipulation. This process is unlikely to be transparent, however, given that manipulation only works if it is disguised. The best response to the residual prospect of manipulation seems to be to resort to informed-rather-than-naive interpretation of prediction market prices, and research into market rules which may enhance usefulness of prediction markets.

Shifting from stocks to futures

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This article was originally written for the simExchange community to inform them that there will be no weekly IPOs for new game stocks this week.

There will be no stock IPOs on the simExchange for the week of July 9. Part of the reason is to shift trading activity to the futures contracts. As you may have noticed, the simExchange has been emphasizing the futures contracts lately with redesigns to the site.

The reason we have been putting more attention on the futures contracts is that after collaborating with the NPD Group, people in the video game industry, and those who cover it on Wall Street, we have learned that short-term unit sales data is much more relevant to the video game industry. Lifetime global sales are hard to judge and not as informative to the industry because it does not detail when the sales will occur (within a publisher&#8217-s fiscal quarter) and at what price the games will be sold (to forecast revenue). The NPD Group has been very kind to provide us unit sales data to settle our futures contracts to make short-term forecasts possible for the US market.

In the future, we will be using stocks to better judge which games we want to list as futures each month to concentrate trading and provide more accurate forecasts.

This article is cross posted from No IPOs for the week of July 9 on The simExchange Official Blog.

Volumes on InTrade are way up from 2004.

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Just thought this might interest some of you:

  • Total volume in 2004 Democratic nomination markets: $5.2 million (data is taken from a talk I gave in San Diego)
  • Volume in 2008 Dem and GOP nomination markets (with 7 months to go before the primaries start): $24 million

Update:

  • CFM asks below whether the higher cumulative volumes on the 2008 contracts just reflect lots of trading in 2005 and early 2006.  I didn&#8217-t have an answer at the time, but if one recalculates the cumulative volume in the nomination markets as of today (10/24/07), it is $30.2 million, up about $6 million from early July.
  • So more volume in the last 3.5 months than in the entire history of the 2004 markets.  Of course, there are two nomination fights this time around, but there are also still months to go before the primaries.
  • This, together with the fact that there are many more political markets on Intrade competing for liquidity, suggests that InTrade&#8217-s politics markets are alive and well.

Insider Trading + Prediction Markets

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InTrade&#8217-s John Delaney interviewed by Freakonomics:

Q. How does Intrade deal with insider trading?

A. Insider trading is one of the wicked problems, perhaps. Intrade is about providing the best predictive information. If insiders have information, then getting that information reflected in the market increases the quality of the information. I know this is not the conventional view concerning insider trading, and I am not arguing wholesale adoption or acceptance of insider trading. But we all know that, in the real world, insiders trade on inside information. We have even had markets on insider trading. Our view is to get the best information available into the market while we make sure there is some fair protection for outsiders.

I will have a third blog post on this John Delaney interview, later on, where I will make some comments.

Intrade: Obama and Clinton at near-parity

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Full disclosure: I trade real money in all markets mentioned.

Both preceding and after the utterly uninformed pronouncements from the past week or so that Hillary was &#8220-the one to beat,&#8221- that she was &#8220-in a league with Tiger Woods and Roger Federer: no. 1,&#8221- the futures markets have voiced a somewhat different opinion.

Hillary, past 120 days:

hrc_jul6.png

Obama, July 6:

obama_jul6.png

There was an unfortunate misperception that Hillary became an overwhelmingly dominant frontrunner on the betting markets, exemplified by the two articles to which I linked. The only time interval in which that was even arguably true was during Obama&#8217-s dip in early June.

Anyway, basically, Obama&#8217-s second-quarter fundraising prowess constitutes the second time in a row in which he&#8217-s demolished the Clintons at their own game. (The meaning of Q1 numbers is much less clear, because lots of politicians, such as John Edwards in 2003 and Mitt Romney in 2007, wrung their personal networks for as much as they possibly could in the first quarter. The second quarter calls for more breadth and depth in one&#8217-s donor base.)

Poll numbers do not mean too much at this point- Joe Lieberman was still winning the Democratic primary at this point in 2003, although nobody took him very seriously. Hillary Clinton has Lieberman-esque name recognition, but her campaign suffers from a yawning enthusiasm gap and a weaker, more reluctant donor network.

From this point on, Obama can expect to be taken at least a little more seriously by the decaying, but still all too relevant MSM. More positive coverage will translate into better poll numbers, which will further undermine Hillary&#8217-s campaign.

With Gore having issued something akin to a &#8220-Sherman statement&#8221- yesterday, and Edwards utterly unable to move the debate beyond the price tag of his last haircut and his own work for the Fortress hedge fund, the Democratic primary is coalescing into a Hillary-Obama slugfest.

The 2014 Winter Games goes to… a Russian Black Sea resort, Sochi.

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The Times of London

The prediction markets were not accurate. The readers of Midas Oracle won&#8217-t be surprised by this total debacle, as I did publish a blog post in April 2007 lambasting the incompetents who entertained the idea that betting markets could be predictive on this one. They can&#8217-t.

The bizarre twist in this story is that our George Tziralis was over there, in Guatemala City, attending that damn 119th IOC session. Guess what&#8230- George Tziralis had put his faith on&#8230- Sochi. Congrats, man. First time I see a prediction market expert beating the betting markets. George, you&#8217-re great.

InTrade-TradeSports:

Sochi

Pyeongchang

Salzburg

Harry Potter actor Dan Radcliffe nude on Midas Oracle

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Equus

Next: Harry Potter actor Dan Radcliffe nude on Midas Oracle&#8230- AGAIN

Previous: Deep Throat sells Harry Potter short. + The contract of the Harry Potter event derivative at NewsFutures may be flawed. + The Harry Potter litmus test

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The FaceBook profiles of the 2 most important men of the field of prediction markets
  • THE HUMAN GADFLY WHOSE OBJECTIONS ROBIN HANSON IS DUCKING…???…
  • Google now considers Midas Oracle as a major blog.
  • Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets
  • Join our group at LinkedIn to have your “Prediction Markets” badge on your profile. It’s ‘chic’. (“Groups” info should be set as “visible”, in your profile options.) We are 63 this early Saturday morning —keeps growing.
  • If you have been using PayPal to fund your InTrade, TradeSports or BetFair account, please, check that horror story.
  • 48 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 52 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).