Hilarious.
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HubDubs Nigel Eccles ridiculizes Paul Kedroskys post bashing the prediction markets after the Sarah Palin upset.
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Tag Archives: Nigel Eccles
Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.
InTrade-TradeSports CEO John Delaney (a.k.a. “-The Sponge”-) has siphoned the best concepts premiered by HubDub, and, in particular, has copied WORD FOR WORD some of the HubDub webpages.
Example: The 3 selling points of the InTrade .NET login/registration webpage are similar to those of HubDub.
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HubDub:
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InTrade. NET:
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John Delaney = The Sponge
Nigel Eccles = The Leader
InTrade DOT NET – www.intrade.net
This post is a very short review of their new website. I might publish a deeper review, later on.
The log line is that InTrade CEO John Delaney has ingested all the innovations that HubDub has brought to the prediction market scene since January 2007 (e.g., long and rich prediction market webpages that are indexed by the search engines, and use of social networking to boost trading) and has asked his technological team to clone those innovations for InTrade. This is great. I also appreciate that their charting system is satisfying. (The advanced charts seem to be of the right size, I have noticed. Neither too small, nor too big.)
On the negative side, the execution is not as good as it should be —-and I’-m polite. But to be fair with them, they say their website is still in “-beta”- —-so let’-s give them time to improve their work.
Overall, it’-s a good move, and it shows, as I have said for months, that Nigel Eccles of HubDub is having a profound impact on the prediction market industry.
UPDATE: I forgot to mention that InTrade.net presents probabilities expressed in percentage, not prices, which they also took from HubDub.
HubDubs Nigel Eccles (pictured below, smiling widely like if he had just performed a good prank) explains to his fellow citizens (well, sorry, the Britons call themselves subjects) in great details what he did to surpass Emile Servan-Schreibers NewsFutures in less than 9 months.
Presumptuous
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Jed Christiansen will never be a cheerleader for the prediction market industry as long as he holds those wrong views about betting on sports.
InTrade-TradeSports CEO John Delaney and HubDub CEO Nigel Eccles might be seen as “-prediction market gurus”-, at least by some —-I doubt very strongly that many industry people will add Jed in the list, after they have read the conformist bullshit that he sent to the CFTC.
We are still waiting Jed’-s reaction on Sean Park’-s comment. Cat got your tongue, Jed? At other times, we couldn’-t stop you.
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HubDub will get quoted in the future, just like the Hollywood Stock Exchange is, today… – PROBABILITY = 33%, AT BEST.
HubDub CEO Nigel Eccles:
I fully appreciate the work that Emile and others have done but just because something hasn’t worked before doesn’t mean it can’t happen. […] Sometimes ideas take time and a fresh perspective before they achieve their full potential. […]
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My thoughts:
- The future is present today as a seed. If we examine today’-s seed under a microscope, we can see part of the future. The fact is that the prices/probabilities from NewsFutures’- play-money prediction markets are NEVER quoted by journalists and bloggers. They quote only InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair and the Hollywood Stock Exchange.
- “-Time”- can change that, indeed, provided that HubDub multiplies volumes by a factor of one million —-which is what I wish for them.
- I don’-t see the “-fresh perspective”- that HubDub would be bringing to the table. HubDub resembles a lot to NewsFutures. (The differences in terms of market design, automated market maker, and breath of topics, are a minor.) HubDub is a generalist, play-money prediction exchange, just like NewsFutures is.
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HubDub CEO Nigel Eccles teaches you startup lessons.
Video
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Challenge #1: Get that “-Bambi Francisco”- to pronounce your last name correctly. 
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- The FaceBook profiles of the 2 most important men of the field of prediction markets
- THE HUMAN GADFLY WHOSE OBJECTIONS ROBIN HANSON IS DUCKING…???…
- Google now considers Midas Oracle as a major blog.
- Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets
- Join our group at LinkedIn to have your “Prediction Markets” badge on your profile. It’s ‘chic’. (“Groups” info should be set as “visible”, in your profile options.) We are 63 this early Saturday morning —keeps growing.
- If you have been using PayPal to fund your InTrade, TradeSports or BetFair account, please, check that horror story.
- 48 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 52 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).
Americans love rankings, but Americans hate to be assessed subjectively.
I am afraid that Nigel Eccles’- answer to The Numbers Guy does not go deep enough into the arguments.
The Numbers Guy (and his interviewees) made some points that Nigel does not address.
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See his Video Response.
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PS: Nigel, Seesmic is a piece of shit. The video does not go into the feeds (unlike YouTube or Blip.TV.)
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Background Info: The Numbers Guy: HubDub’-s PunditWatch is not as rigorous as Philip Tetlock was.
More Info: Interview via OPMs
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- The FaceBook profiles of the 2 most important men of the field of prediction markets
- THE HUMAN GADFLY WHOSE OBJECTIONS ROBIN HANSON IS DUCKING…???…
- Google now considers Midas Oracle as a major blog.
- Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets
- Join our group at LinkedIn to have your “Prediction Markets” badge on your profile. It’s ‘chic’. (“Groups” info should be set as “visible”, in your profile options.) We are 63 this early Saturday morning —keeps growing.
- If you have been using PayPal to fund your InTrade, TradeSports or BetFair account, please, check that horror story.
- 48 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 52 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).
The Numbers Guy
…- says that HubDub’-s PunditWatch is not as rigorous as Philip Tetlock was.
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UPDATE: Interview + Video Response
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- The CFTC is going to close the comments in 9 days. We have 9 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
- Forrest Nelson valids Emile Servan-Schreiber.
- Averaging One’s Guesses
- Americans love rankings, but Americans hate to be assessed subjectively.
- A libertarian view on the Internet betting and gambling industry in the United States of America
- The CFTC is going to close the comments in 10 days. We have 10 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
- The CFTC Readings Of The Day —Thursday Morning Edition
HubDubs Nigel Eccles is the man.
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- He didn’-t sign Bob’-s petitions.
- He is experienced.
- He is well versed into prediction markets and journalism.
- Just after HubDub’-s inception, he realized they fucked up their chart widgets. Five months later, they managed to correct that birth defect.
- He is a guy humble enough to ask for pointers and feedback —-and he does listen up (see the point #4).
- He is quite friendly.
- HubDub is already a success.
- HubDub serves a purpose for people: it mixes news and prediction markets in a novel way, which should give ideas to InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair, TradeFair, NewsFutures, etc.
- In some kind of small ways, Nigel Eccles is pioneering “-the future of journalism“-.
- If newspaper and magazine websites were to be interested in prediction markets, HubDub should be in the short list.
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Three things that Scottish guy hasn’-t computed yet, though:
- You have to look down into the small prints, towards the bottom of their frontpage, to get the info that they have a blog. (((They master well mass e-mailing, on the other hand.)))
- He hasn’-t cracked open prediction market journalism (a la Justin Wolfers), yet —-but I’-m confident that is coming.
- He looks like a baby-face schmuck on that pic.
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