Tag Archives: Midas Oracle

Folks, you are reading this within Google Reader, ARENT YOU??

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How to use the Midas Oracle feeds&#8230-

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • A second look at HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets”
  • Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
  • US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
  • If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
  • THE CFTC’s SECRET AGENDA —UNVEILED.
  • “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
  • Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.

The Midas Oracle Project

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Einstein

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  1. the richer and most technically sophisticated form of prediction market journalism
  2. a very popular form of prediction market journalism

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Sounds like a too lofty dual goal- your feeling is right. My idea is to find an adequation between this (too) lofty dual goal and the class of organizations that could fund that. I have had a crazy idea, which I submitted to MG and some others, and it might not be that crazy after all. In the coming days, I&#8217-ll reach out to more Midas Oracle people.

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Besides informing you of my intention, the purpose of this post is to create the &#8220-Midas Oracle Project&#8221- category and tag. Stay tuned&#8230-

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To the good people who have registered by themselves on Midas Oracle

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The combination of one too strong anti-spam plugin and one faulty registration plugin lead our database system to delete many of the brand-new accounts.

If you registered by yourself on Midas Oracle, these past weeks, you might check your status and discover that, oh horror, your existence was suppressed.

If so, renew your registration. (Please, fill in your full name.) Apologies.

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How Can I Get In/Out Of Midas Oracle?

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Prediction market journalism should not be practiced by… the prediction market people… but by the vertical experts -with the help of the prediction market people.

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Last Wednesday, I published a post about the Obama-Clinton, with charts from the main prediction exchanges (InTrade, BetFair and NewsFutures). Today, I looked into the web stats reports. The post ranks #37 [*] in the list of the most popular pieces published since last Wednesday. In other words, it was an un-popular story. Nobody gives the first fig about Chris Masse writing on US politics.

Political prediction markets should be a tool used by trusted political experts reporting on the horse races and other issues. It&#8217-s in that perspective that I&#8217-m going to mind the future of Midas Oracle.

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[*] Surprisingly, Koleman Strumpf&#8217-s story ranks #5. Not that I&#8217-m jealous. :-D

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • A second look at HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets”
  • Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
  • US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
  • If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
  • THE CFTC’s SECRET AGENDA —UNVEILED.
  • “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
  • Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.

NOTE TO SELF: Set up customized e-mail alerts for brand-new, hot Midas Oracle stuff.

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Felix Salmon:

And while Barry might not like the overall quality of the writers at Seeking Alpha, the quality of the readers (as opposed to the commenters, who are an unrepresentative sample) is pretty high, for one big reason: Seeking Alpha&#8217-s email alerts. Most executives simply have no time to surf the web for content, which is one reason why it took a long time for econoblogs to take off. But a lot of them have signed up for SA&#8217-s email service, which sends them a bunch of posts on their particular company or industry on a regular basis. And I&#8217-m often very surprised at the number of times that high-powered people get in touch with me after I end up in one of those emails.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • 50% of our prediction market luminaries have a MacBook.
  • STRAIGHT FROM OUR TRUISM DEPARTMENT: Money buys happiness.
  • Ron Paul (R) and Barney Frank (D) ally together to attack “the practical hurdles of the federal law, known as the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, rather than its legitimacy”.
  • Clicking on the “SPHERE: RELATED CONTENT” button, at the bottom of each Midas Oracle post, will bring you a list of external webspots.
  • FRIGHTENING: Jed Christiansen’s prediction market blog was briefly overtaken by web spammers, who inserted invisible links to their commercial sites so as to game the Google PageRank system.
  • InTrade ditch market-leader Bloomberg for low-cost, second-tier data provider eSignal.
  • Drawing a parallel between our reluctance to seek advice and the experts’ reluctance to take the market-generated probabilistic predictions in an un-discriminating, un-critical fashion

Midas Oracle is now powered by WordPress 2.5 -and you should be too.

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  1. Just updated to WordPress 2.5. (See a screencast here.)
  2. I waited one week before upgrading, so as to take the time to monitor the WP 2.5 compatibility with our plugins.
  3. To upgrade, I used the &#8220-Wordpress Automatic Upgrade&#8221- plugin. The automatic process failed, but the step-by-step process worked fine. Overall, I&#8217-m happy. This plugin is a time saver.
  4. WordPress 2.5.1 is due for May 2008. In the meantime, if you spot some gremlins, let me know.
  5. Speaking of gremlins, WP 2.5 has now a better compatibility with Safari, so maybe Tom W. Bell will come down here to tell us what he thinks of the new US anti-gambling regulations.
  6. The Midas Oracle post/page authors will spot a totally reconfigured &#8220-Write Post / Page&#8221- area.
  7. They have added a bunch of &#8220-media buttons&#8221- (to insert pictures, sounds, videos, etc.) and an &#8220-embedded media&#8221- button (which you&#8217-ll find if you click first on the &#8220-Kitchen Sink&#8221-). I have yet to fully experiment all that.
  8. There is now a &#8220-full screen mode&#8221- for the writing area.
  9. They have hidden the 2 blockquotes button under the &#8220-Kitchen Sink&#8221- sub-menu.

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UPDATE: Gartner is out today saying that open-source software will take over the free world, eventually &#8212-and that includes Chapman University and Tom W. Bell&#8230- :-D

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Matt Mullenweg

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Problem 17: Prediction Markets — USMA D/Math Problem of the Week — Submission Deadline: April 3, 2008 at 1600
  • Would be fun to have the equivalent for event derivatives.
  • “We’ll be eight degrees hotter in 30 or 40 years and basically none of the crops will grow.” “Most of the people will have died and the rest of us will be cannibals,” said Turner, 69. “Civilization will have broken down. The few people left will be living in a failed state —like Somalia or Sudan— and living conditions will be intolerable.”
  • QUESTION TO THE READERS: Could anyone guess what Nassim Nicholas Taleb would think of the prediction markets?
  • YouTube Videos on Prediction Markets

Robin Hanson wants to rule the world -just as CEOs and heads of states do for a living.

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Our Master Of All Universes moans that the Free World&#8217-s private and public decision makers rarely or never ask him for advice &#8212-even though he sits on many &#8220-Boards Of Advisors&#8221- (like NewsFutures&#8216- one), which are, by definition, set up to provide advice &#8212-or so he thought, at inception. How come CEOs and heads of states are not imploring him for advice to help them run the word, he asks. He blogs that advisers are probably paid primarily for the prestige value that they lend to the company.

Which leads me to realize that I pay zero French franc for having economist Michael Giberson on our Scientific Advisory Board, which is quite about what his prestige is worth in the field of prediction markets, as of today. :-D That might change in the future, though &#8212-especially if I continue to flatter him publicly in posts like this present one. He might suffer from ego inflation and charge me for using his so-called &#8220-prestige value&#8221-. All economists, be damned. They are as greedy as the people they study.

Did you know that Real Clear Politics (a political news aggregator in bed with InTrade) is now owned by Forbes?

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No GravatarI didn&#8217-t know that. (They also own Investopedia.)

And now Forbes are selling ad spaces for Real Clear Politics and 400 other politics blogs, thru their &#8220-Forbes Audience Network&#8221-. They sent me an e-mail, last year, to get us in their network. But a close look at their proposed contract showed that they would offer only 40% for Midas Oracle &#8212-whereas the other ad networks would offer 60%.

By the way, I&#8217-ll tell you later about my master plan to develop Midas Oracle&#8230-

UPDATE: More info from Paid Content and Silicon Alley Insider (Ad Networks Are For Losers)&#8230-

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UPDATE:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

http://www.realclearmarkets.com/

http://www.realclearsports.com/

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Last year’s best April Fool’s Day Joke had something to do with the Wisdom Of Crowds.
  • Will HedgeStreet USA, the hypothetical InTrade USA, and the hypothetical TradeFair USA, be regulated in the future by a merged SEC+CFTC regulatory structure?
  • WORST THAN ELIOT SPITZER (if it were possible): Formula One boss, Max Mosley, had sado-masochist sex with 5 prostitutes, for 5 hours (!!), reenacting a concentration camp scene (!!) in which he played the role of both Nazi guard and inmate.
  • Is BetFair Poker a booby trap for the gullible novices? Does The Sporting Exchange (the operator of the BetFair brands) help gangs plucking down innocent recreational poker players?? To get an inkling, don’t read The Guardian, seeded by the BetFair spin doctor- read Midas Oracle.
  • The video that the technologically retarded BetFair spin doctor should watch.

Why Midas Oracle (and not TV news shows or print newspapers) will dominate the future.

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Henry Blodget:

We still occasionally encounter people who argue that physical newspapers and TV news shows have a vital roll to play in the dissemination of news. These folks usually work for physical newspapers and TV networks, of course. [&#8230-]

Ha! ha! ha! :-D

48% said their primary source of news is the Internet (up 20% from only a year ago).
86% of Americans regard web sites as an important source of news.
36% regard &#8220-blogs&#8221- as an important source of news.
87% of Americans think &#8220-professional journalism&#8221- will remain vitally important.
77% think &#8220-citizen journalism&#8221- will be important
59% think &#8220-blogs&#8221- will be important.

More at Zogby.

BetFair-TradeFair, Betdaq, TradeSports-InTrade, MatchBook, NewsFutures, HSX, et al., should begin to take prediction market blogs seriously.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Red Herring’s list of the top 100 North-American high-tech startups includes Inkling Markets —but not NewsFutures, Consensus Point, or Xpree.
  • Professor Koleman Strumpf explains the prediction markets to the countryland people.
  • Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset.
  • Time magazine interview the 2 BetFair-Tradefair co-founders, and not a single time do they pronounce the magic words, “prediction markets”.
  • One Deep Throat told me that this VC firm might have been connected with the Irish prediction exchange, at inception.
  • BetFair Rapid = BetFair’s standalone, local, PC-based, order-entry software for prediction markets
  • Michael Moore tells the Democratic people to go Barack Obama in Pennsylvania (a two-tier state), but the polls and the prediction markets tell us that that won’t do the trick.

Changes to Midas Oracle

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  1. Anyone can comment &#8212-no need to be a registered member. It has been working fine. Spammers have been kept at bay by the math test. (They can&#8217-t count, apparently. :-D )
  2. Anyone can register himself/herself to become a member. A math test will deter spammers.
  3. The last part of some of my posts will be seen only by registered members &#8212-at times. You&#8217-ll be told to login or register to see the full post.
  4. I will send out an e-mail newsletter to the registered members &#8212-at times. This will be performed directly from the Midas Oracle system. Your e-mail addresses won&#8217-t be shared with an external service.

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That&#8217-s what you&#8217-ll see at the top of the sidebar:

NRM

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Once logged in, here&#8217-s what you&#8217-ll see:

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Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • TechCrunch is 221 times bigger than Midas Oracle.
  • Earthquake measuring 9.0 or more on Richter scale to occur anywhere on or before December 31, 2008
  • Why Midas Oracle (and not TV news shows or print newspapers) will dominate the future.
  • The Six Degrees Of Separation
  • Alpha Thesis
  • Meet Michael Arrington of TechCrunch.
  • Hedge your taxes –and forecast them too.