Tag Archives: Iran

INTRADE TRADERS, BEWARE. – Primary indicators from Iran might not be reliable: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad doctors pictures using PhotoShop.

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UPDATE:

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The FaceBook profiles of the 2 most important men of the field of prediction markets
  • THE HUMAN GADFLY WHOSE OBJECTIONS ROBIN HANSON IS DUCKING…???…
  • Google now considers Midas Oracle as a major blog.
  • Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets
  • Join our group at LinkedIn to have your “Prediction Markets” badge on your profile. It’s ‘chic’. (“Groups” info should be set as “visible”, in your profile options.) We are 63 this early Saturday morning —keeps growing.
  • If you have been using PayPal to fund your InTrade, TradeSports or BetFair account, please, check that horror story.
  • 48 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 52 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).

Voodoo analysis of prediction market contracts

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I wonder if the following is a joke:

Events these past few weeks make an airstrike on Iran more likely. The Intrade contract reinforces this view. While the probability remains moderate at 32%, the chart shows a market that is strengthening.

Here is stock-type technical analysis applied to this contract. There is a large &#8220-cup&#8221- going back to the contract&#8217-s inception. The low was 10 in January of this year. Since then, there is an unmistakeable rise. Following standard technical analysis, the drop from 50 to 10 was 40 points. That gives a calculated resistance level at 30. That level was broken this past week on high volume. This confirms the strength. The 40 level presents the next resistance level.

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Price for US/Israeli Overt Air Strike against Iran (Rule 1.8 Applies) at intrade.com

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The last post mentioning technical analysis at Midas Oracle contains a joke.