Here is a beauty from InTrade, 12 hours ago: Bids and Asks at the same price. Looks like the ‘-ol InTrade price-matching mechanism is working great.
Signed: Deep Throat
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Editor’-s Note: Here’-s a new screen shot, taken this Saturday early morning (US Easter: 2:50 am).
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Jason Ruspini:
Actually it’s working fine. This means the same trader has a bid and offer at the same price. Otherwise traders would be able to manufacture bogus volume by trading with themselves.
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BetFair’-s prediction markets, on which country will get the most medals —-it’-s China, but the U.S. is not far behind.
InTrade’-s prediction markets, on the boring boycott thing.
TradeSports is AWOL.
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A proposal: Will the Olympics get derailed by air pollution?
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
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Does anybody know whether full prediction market journalism can be practiced on America’-s soil? Or do we have to go offshore to be able to link to InTrade?
What does the law say?
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InTrade:
New Market: Amendment to UIGEA
Monday, Apr 14, 2008
We have listed a contract on an amendment to the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act being passed before the end of 2010, and that Rep. Barney Frank will be a sponser of the bill. This contract can be found under Legal —- Internet Gaming.
Contract Rules:
This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if a bill amending the provisions of the US code implementing UIGEA will pass by 11:59:59pm ET on the date specified in the contract, AND Rep. Barney Frank is among the bill’-s sponsors
The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if a bill amending the provisions of the US code implementing UIGEA DOES NOT pass by 11:59:59pm ET on the date specified in the contract, or it does pass and Rep. Barney Frank is NOT among the bill’-s sponsors
Expiry will be based on the official passage of any bill, as reported by three independent and reliable media sources. For expiry purposes the Library of Congress? Thomas system will be used as the definitive source of information.
A bill will be considered “-passed”- once it has been passed by congress (House and Senate) and sent to the President for signing. What the President does with the bill will not affect expiry.
The UIGEA is the “-Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act”-.
Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.7 Unforeseen Circumstances.
The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate.
Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account – Exchange Rule 1.4
Please contact the exchange by emailing [email protected] if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.
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Why is Barney Frank’-s footprint so important, in that contract? Makes no sense at all to personalize the issue. John Delaney is the most illogical man I have ever met.
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
Unless you’-re just just surfacing from an Afghan cave, you can easily guess who that “-David”- could be…- 
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
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Via Yahoo! Research scientist David Pennock (pictured in the video, with, in the background, a whiteboard full of complex mathematical equations, which impressed the young New York Post journalist)…- this New York Post video (embedded just below).
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John Delaney’-s statement that people (did he say “-pundits”- or “-people”-?…-) were predicting a John Kerry victory in November of 2004 (while InTrade was predicting that George W. Bush would be re-elected) should be backed by supportive evidence. It’-s difficult to quantify the chatter in newspapers, magazines, TVs, blogs, etc. Did someone do that for the 2004 presidential elections? I know that the polls were favoring Bush, slightly, but I don’-t know whether the political buzz was quantified scientifically, really.
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I have created a “-Prediction Market Videos”- category in my “-Links”- page. I have listed there the InTrade and the Jed Christiansen webspots at YouTube.
Any other link(s) to suggest, folks?
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Jed Christiansen: What is a prediction market?
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Jed Christiansen: How can I use a prediction market for my business?
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- When will Bertie Ahern officially cease to be Taoiseach of the Republic of Ireland? Unmatched bets will not be cancelled at any time. Users are responsible for their own positions. Users should be aware that they are NOT allowed to bet on this event if they are physically present in Austria or Germany.
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BetFair static chart (resignation to happen before January 2009):
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As a matter of experiment, I am going to try to paste just below a hot-linked BetFair chart…- to see if that works (that is, if BetFair accepts that bloggers do hot-link to their live charts). If you don’-t see the “-Bye Bye Bertie”- chart appearing in the line just below, don’-t mind.
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UPDATE: The experiment is successful. BetFair do accept that bloggers hot-link to their live charts. Great news. (My readers may remember that I did that same experiment with InTrade’-s advanced charts, some weeks ago, and that the experiment failed. But I’-ll re-do that InTrade experiment, a bit later.)
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Via HubDub, The Independent
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
I didn’-t know that. (They also own Investopedia.)
And now Forbes are selling ad spaces for Real Clear Politics and 400 other politics blogs, thru their “-Forbes Audience Network”-. They sent me an e-mail, last year, to get us in their network. But a close look at their proposed contract showed that they would offer only 40% for Midas Oracle —-whereas the other ad networks would offer 60%.
By the way, I’-ll tell you later about my master plan to develop Midas Oracle…-
UPDATE: More info from Paid Content and Silicon Alley Insider (Ad Networks Are For Losers)…-
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UPDATE:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
http://www.realclearmarkets.com/
http://www.realclearsports.com/
Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
Via Bo Cowgill of Google, via Foreign Policy, John McCain:
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They would do anything to sell politics, these days.
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Foreign Policy:
It’-s a clever marketing ploy by team McCain, but why stop there? Why not have the candidate take positions in predictions markets such as Intrade? Wouldn’-t we rather know how prescient Senator McCain is about the odds of bird flu striking the United States by the end of September, the chances Pervez Musharraf will step down as Pakistan’-s president anytime soon, or the likelihood of a peace treaty between Israel and the Palestinians by January 2009? Put your money where your mouth is, senator.
InTrade-TradeSports and BetFair-TradeFair should let traders opt to make public their positions, and they should create dynamic prediction registries and leagues.
Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
