WORLDS #1 PREDICTION MARKET GURU IMPLIES THAT THE PREDICTION MARKETS ARE NOT MATURE ENOUGH.
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Tag Archives: InTrade
Is Intrade out on a limb?
As I write this, Intrade gives the advantage to McCain over Obama and has the Republican party even with the Democratic party to win the election, whereas all the other prediction markets, meaning IEM, Betfair, and the NewsFutures play-money kind still favor a Democrat in the White House. That disconnect prompted Chris to wonder aloud whether Intrade is faster than the other markets to incorporate the latest polls, perhaps because of its “-bigger liquidity”-.
That’-s an interesting reaction on several levels.
First, reactivity and accuracy are not to be confused for one another. Given that market prices are supposed to be more accurate and more stable that fickle U.S. raw polls (Berg et al, 2008), one should not necessarily be impressed by the market that is quickest to mirror the latest polls. I very much doubt that traders in the “-other”- markets have not heard about the latest polls giving McCain an edge. Rightly or wrongly – it is too soon to tell – they just gave those polls less weight that the Intrade traders apparently did.
Second, the argument from “-bigger liquidity”- is not receivable. Recently, Paul Tetlock analyzed Tradesports data in depth and found that more liquidity may in fact make the market dumber. He concludes: “-In both sports and financial prediction markets, the calibration of prices to event probabilities does not improve with increases in liquidity- and the forecasting resolution of market prices actually worsens with increases in liquidity.”-
My personal theory is that Intrade has a hair-trigger Republican bias which is not found in the other markets, because Intrade appeals to, and is marketed to, the more Republican-leaning segments of the U.S. population. In my opinion, the Intrade/Tradesports Republican bias was already evident in the 2004 election, as this analysis shows.
Of course, I may be completely wrong. In any case, I find today’-s dual disconnect between the polls and most of the markets, on the one hand, and between Intrade and the other markets, on the other hand, to be two very interesting data points that should be duly recorded so we can come back to them later, with hindsight.
2008 US Elections Prediction: John McCain is now the favorite at InTrade, while all the other prediction exchanges still have Barack Obama ahead. Is InTrade quicker to incorporate the latest polls because of the bigger liquidity of its prediction markets?
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#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets
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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out…- Intelligence in, intelligence out…-
A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.
Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.
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More Info:
– The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts
– Prediction Market Science
– The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets
– All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets
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#2. Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets
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Put your mouse on your selected chart, right-click, and open the link in another browser tab to get directed to the prediction market page of your favorite exchange.
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2008 US Elections
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InTrade
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2008 US Electoral College
2008 Electoral Map Prediction = InTrade – Electoral College Prediction Markets = Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland = electoralmarkets.com
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– This is a dynamic chart, which is up to date. Click on the image, and open the website in another browser tab to get the bigger version.
Intrade 2008.PRES.McCAIN > PRESIDENT.REP2008
How frequent are arbitrage opportunities such as the following?
In addition to title, the reverse is true of OBAMA/DEM.
Do traders really think there’-s some probability of McCain being elected as an idependent and Obama being replaced as the Democrat nominee?
Multi-millionaire, Republican, professor of economics Greg Mankiw uses Jason Ruspinis tax prediction markets at InTrade to assess the probability that a hypothetical John McCain presidency starting in 2009 assumes a raise in federal taxes.
Via Marginal Revolution
P(tax hike / McCain) = 74%.
APPENDIX: Robin Hanson does not know yet who he is going to vote for, in November 2008…- and feels that no scholar can help him.
Questions to InTrade CEO John Delaney about InTrade .NET and InTrade .COM
– InTrade .NET is a play-money prediction exchange while InTrade .COM is a real-money prediction exchange. Is there an automated market maker linking the InTrade .NET prices (or bids) with the InTrade .COM prices?
– Why is it that you ask the consumers of InTrade .NET to sign the terms of use of InTrade .COM, which mentions that: “-2.2.4 You may lose money on Exchange trades.”-? – [Thanks to Deep Throat for that remark.]
– InTrade .NET has a very good charting system. Will the same charting system be implemented at InTrade .COM whose charts are absolutely awful? (See this comparison between the InTrade .COM charts and the InTrade .COM v2 charts.) I insist to say that this should be a priority.
– Will InTrade .NET have chart widgets, just like InTrade .COM and InTrade .COM v2 both have?
– Will InTrade .NET have closed contracts (which are very useful in the accuracy discussions), just like InTrade .COM and InTrade .COM v2 both have?
– Finally, it is stated on the InTrade .COM frontpage (in a text promoting InTrade .NET) that:
When Intrade.net goes out of beta it will become the new default but the current version of Intrade.com will be retained indefinitely.
How should we understand that? Does this mean that you are going to merge your play-money and real-money prediction exchanges? (Might not be a bad idea provided that full information is given on each prediction market.)
UPDATE: Deep Throat tells me that their techies are testing their new user interface on InTrade .NET, which deals with with play money, and then if everything works out well, they may implement the same user interface on InTrade .COM, which deals with real money —-while maintaining the legacy InTrade .COM on a dedicated server, for the nostalgic users.
2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: The 2008 US elections thru the prism of the prediction markets – 2008 US presidential and congressional elections – US President Prediction + US Congress Prediction – Barack Obama vs. John McCain
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#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets
–
Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out…- Intelligence in, intelligence out…-
A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.
Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.
–
More Info:
– The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts
– Prediction Market Science
– The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets
– All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets
–
–
#2. Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets
–
Put your mouse on your selected chart, right-click, and open the link in another browser tab to get directed to the prediction market page of your favorite exchange.
–
–
InTrade
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2008 US Electoral College
2008 Electoral Map Prediction = InTrade – Electoral College Prediction Markets = Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland = electoralmarkets.com
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– This is a dynamic chart, which is up to date. Click on the image, and open the website in another browser tab to get the bigger version.
Midas Oracle is the only publication that defends the event derivative traders (even when they are too sarcastic, boisterous, or annoying) -at the risk of infuriating the prediction market big brass.
New Yahoo! News election dashboard
Cross-posted on Oddhead Blog.
The Yahoo! News Political Dashboard has re-launched for the general election stretch run of the 2008 US Presidential election.
From the main map you can see the status of the election in every state according to either polls or Intrade prediction market odds. Hover your mouse over a state to see current numbers or click on a state to see historical trends. On the side, you can see search trends, blogs, news, and demographic breakdowns at national and state levels.
You can also “-create your own scenario”- by picking who will win in every state. You can save and share your prediction and compare against markets, polls, history, or celebrities. More on ycorpblog.
Readers will be happy to see more thorough and prominent integration of prediction market prices compared to the primary election dashboard. Is that good enough to quiet Chris’-s whining?
In the PM view, states are colored either bright red or bright blue, regardless of how close the race is in that state. To see a visualization that blends colors to reflect the tightness of the race, see electoralmarkets.com.
Yahoo! News also offers a candidate badge that you can display on your blog declaring your choice. The badge features national-level polls, prediction markets, search buzz, and money raised.
One Wall Street / Chicago fanboy hopes that political prediction markets will soon be proposed by the established derivative exchanges, who work more professionally than InTrade (in his view).
