Nokias Enterprise Prediction Markets = Competitive Advantage

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Thus, the Nokia executives are pretty secretive about it. Bad luck for them, there&#8217-s a group blog on the Web that specializes on prediction markets and that digs deep. :-D So, here&#8217-s an inkling into Nokia&#8217-s enterprise prediction markets. The material was gathered from the World-Wide Web.

Maximilian Kammerer (Nokia&#8217-s Vice President CMO Global Customer Care) – (PDF file):

What technologies did you need for real-time information feedback among people working in 120 different countries?

KAMMERER: One sample element within the whole system is the Nokia Care Information Market. Like a stock exchange with a Web-based platform, people deal with information derivatives. They wager on the success of new strategies, innovations, solutions and projects. If their estimates change—the prices change. The price index creates an enormous transparency. The effectiveness of information markets relies on the fact that the collective intelligence is higher then every individual intelligence—even than that at management levels. Having understood that, our strategic decision-making is no longer purely based on historical data or expert opinions but on the intelligence of all concerned.

Translation: Nokia is embracing James Surowiscki&#8217-s wisdom of crowds. It&#8217-s my understanding that it&#8217-s the first time that that is said publicly by Nokia.

Now, let&#8217-s dig a bit. This interview was posted on the website of &#8220-1492&#8220-, a consulting firm from Austria. Now, the good question is&#8230- Which prediction market firm does supply &#8220-1492&#8243- with software and advice (which are resold to Nokia)? Suspense, suspense.

Gexid

Bernd

ANSWER: GEXID

Congrats to them.

As everybody knows in the field, prediction market firms very often have to sign NDAs before undertaking clients, which means that the public gets to know the names of those firms only when their clients allow this information to be published.

APPENDIX: Nokia is also listed as a client on Consensus Point&#8217-s website.

ROBIN HANSON TELLS THE TRUTH ON GOOGLES ENTERPRISE PREDICTION MARKETS.

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Robin Hanson:

Yes prediction markets are cool, Google is cool, and it is cool that Google had location data to show how location influences trading. But cool need not be useful. People are not asking the hard questions here: what value exactly is Google getting out of these markets, aside from helping them look cool?

Robin Hanson is a modern-day hero. Speaks the truth. Has a clear vision. Doesn&#8217-t mind to act as a contrarian, now and then. Like Winston Churchill. Is a real leader.

Related Links: Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence From Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – by Bo Cowgill (Google economic analyst), Justin Wolfers (University of Pennsylvania) and Eric Zitzewitz (Dartmouth College)

Robin Hanson is not convinced by the Google experiment with enterprise prediction markets -to say the least.

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Robin Hanson in a comment on Marginal Revolution:

This is important work for organizational sociology, but not for prediction markets, as this does little to help us find and field high value markets.

Finally, somebody who speaks the truth.

See also the comment of economist Michael Giberson.

Related Links: Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence From Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – by Bo Cowgill (Google economic analyst), Justin Wolfers (University of Pennsylvania) and Eric Zitzewitz (Dartmouth College)

Have Googles enterprise prediction markets been accurate?

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Justin Wolfers:

So we decided to move beyond asking, “Do prediction markets work?” and instead use them as a tool for better understanding how information flows within a (very cool) corporation.

I am more interested in the accuracy of the enterprise prediction markets than in corporate micro-geography issues.

Related Links: Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence From Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – by Bo Cowgill (Google economic analyst), Justin Wolfers (University of Pennsylvania) and Eric Zitzewitz (Dartmouth College)