Tag Archives: HubDub

Too much seed money could kill HubDub -and the other prediction market startups.

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QUESTION: Why did Monitor 110 fail?

ANSWER: Too much money.

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  1. The lack of a single, &#8220-the buck stops here&#8221- leader until too late in the game-
  2. No separation between the technology organization and the product organization-
  3. Too much PR, too early-
  4. Too much money-
  5. Not close enough to the customer-
  6. Slow to adapt to market reality-
  7. Disagreement on strategy both within the Company and with the Board.

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Personally, my view is that the concept should be excellent.

Being first on a market helps.

Hiring visionaries and leaders helps.

Picking up and developing the right technology helps.

But the key is the concept.

Nigel Eccles got the concept right.

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Why the HubDub model is superior to the InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair, HSX and NewsFuturess ones

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Because HubDub is the only prediction exchange whose prediction market webpages are indexed highly by Google.

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That query leads to that prediction market webpage.

That query leads to that prediction market webpage.

That query leads to that prediction market webpage.

That query leads to that prediction market webpage.

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In the 4 cases above, you can spot HubDub in the top 10 Google results.

I speculate that HubDub is going to harvest hundreds of thousands of Google visits in the next 12 months.

Which is probably higher that the BetFair blog will get from Google &#8212-and there is a low conversion rate (from the BetFair blog to the BetFair prediction market webpages), probably. With the HubDub model, the conversion rate is always 100%.

Nigel Eccles, this time, I am impressed.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Testing the new HubDub chart widgets
  • Why InTrade CEO John Delaney, TradeSports acting CEO John Delaney, BetFair CEO David Yu, HubDub CEO Nigel Eccles and NewsFutures CEO Emile Servan-Schreiber should supplicate me to develop my prediction market journalism project
  • The John Edwards Non-Affair: How on Earth did they get this photo, what does this photo prove, and which prediction markets should we trade on to profit from this alledged scandal?
  • Nick Davis’ effort to clean up British horse racing
  • Free Money On The Table At InTrade
  • Google Web Search shows that I am the only blogger in the world to talk about “prediction market journalism”.
  • Marginal Revolution vs. Freakonomics vs. Overcoming Bias vs. Midas Oracle

HubDub = Prediction Exchange + News Aggregator + Social Networking System

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By how much will Porsche&#8217-s profit be higher than its turnover?

Interesting new prediction market at HubDub.

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What I have just realized is that the most sociable of the HubDub traders (like the one who created the question above) can drive many of their &#8220-friends&#8221- to their newly created prediction market(s). I used to think that only a blogger would do that &#8212-I was wrong. HubDub has a performing social networking system that works in symbiosis with its prediction exchange. Very efficient.

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The more I dive into HubDub the more I find it smart and well structured.

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HubDub will get quoted in the future, just like the Hollywood Stock Exchange is, today… – PROBABILITY = 33%, AT BEST.

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HubDub CEO Nigel Eccles:

I fully appreciate the work that Emile and others have done but just because something hasn’t worked before doesn’t mean it can’t happen. […] Sometimes ideas take time and a fresh perspective before they achieve their full potential. […]

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My thoughts:

  1. The future is present today as a seed. If we examine today&#8217-s seed under a microscope, we can see part of the future. The fact is that the prices/probabilities from NewsFutures&#8217- play-money prediction markets are NEVER quoted by journalists and bloggers. They quote only InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair and the Hollywood Stock Exchange.
  2. &#8220-Time&#8221- can change that, indeed, provided that HubDub multiplies volumes by a factor of one million &#8212-which is what I wish for them.
  3. I don&#8217-t see the &#8220-fresh perspective&#8221- that HubDub would be bringing to the table. HubDub resembles a lot to NewsFutures. (The differences in terms of market design, automated market maker, and breath of topics, are a minor.) HubDub is a generalist, play-money prediction exchange, just like NewsFutures is.

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HubDub CEO Nigel Eccles teaches you startup lessons.

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Video

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Challenge #1: Get that &#8220-Bambi Francisco&#8221- to pronounce your last name correctly. :-D

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The FaceBook profiles of the 2 most important men of the field of prediction markets
  • THE HUMAN GADFLY WHOSE OBJECTIONS ROBIN HANSON IS DUCKING…???…
  • Google now considers Midas Oracle as a major blog.
  • Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets
  • Join our group at LinkedIn to have your “Prediction Markets” badge on your profile. It’s ‘chic’. (“Groups” info should be set as “visible”, in your profile options.) We are 63 this early Saturday morning —keeps growing.
  • If you have been using PayPal to fund your InTrade, TradeSports or BetFair account, please, check that horror story.
  • 48 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 52 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).

HubDub question

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I did bet $20 on the &#8220-yes&#8221- side of the CFTC prediction market. But now, I want to sell those this &#8220-yes&#8221- contract and buy a &#8220-no&#8221- contract instead.

How can I do that on HubDub? Thanks.

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UPDATE: Jed Christiansen gives me the explainer in the comment, below. Thanks. It worked fine. I am now negative on this prediction.

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Americans love rankings, but Americans hate to be assessed subjectively.

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I am afraid that Nigel Eccles&#8217- answer to The Numbers Guy does not go deep enough into the arguments.

The Numbers Guy (and his interviewees) made some points that Nigel does not address.

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See his Video Response.


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PS: Nigel, Seesmic is a piece of shit. The video does not go into the feeds (unlike YouTube or Blip.TV.)

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Background Info: The Numbers Guy: HubDub&#8217-s PunditWatch is not as rigorous as Philip Tetlock was.

More Info: Interview via OPMs

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The FaceBook profiles of the 2 most important men of the field of prediction markets
  • THE HUMAN GADFLY WHOSE OBJECTIONS ROBIN HANSON IS DUCKING…???…
  • Google now considers Midas Oracle as a major blog.
  • Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets
  • Join our group at LinkedIn to have your “Prediction Markets” badge on your profile. It’s ‘chic’. (“Groups” info should be set as “visible”, in your profile options.) We are 63 this early Saturday morning —keeps growing.
  • If you have been using PayPal to fund your InTrade, TradeSports or BetFair account, please, check that horror story.
  • 48 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 52 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).

The Numbers Guy

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&#8230- says that HubDub&#8217-s PunditWatch is not as rigorous as Philip Tetlock was.

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UPDATE: Interview + Video Response

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 9 days. We have 9 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • Forrest Nelson valids Emile Servan-Schreiber.
  • Averaging One’s Guesses
  • Americans love rankings, but Americans hate to be assessed subjectively.
  • A libertarian view on the Internet betting and gambling industry in the United States of America
  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 10 days. We have 10 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • The CFTC Readings Of The Day —Thursday Morning Edition

Barack Obama is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic party.

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Cocky HubDub has just expired the contract. InTrade and BetFair did not. InTrade will expire the Democratic candidate contract when the Democratic party declares their nominee at their convention. BetFair does not state anything. Maybe they&#8217-re too shy to tell. :-D

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UPDATE: Read Andrew Sulivan&#8217-s analysis of Hillary Clinton&#8217-s speech.

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UPDATE: NewsFutures did not expired its Democratic candidate contract either.

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UPDATE: Brad Stewart tells us in a comment that Reality Markets did not expire its contract, too.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • No Trades (other than at the start) —-> Not a reliable predictor, as of today
  • How you should read Midas Oracle
  • The best prediction exchanges
  • “There will be no media consumption left in ten years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.”
  • Hillary Clinton won’t be on the Democratic ticket. — It’s not going to happen. — N-E-V-E-R. — Not a chance. — Period.
  • Suggestion for WordPress — Subscribers’ Capabilities
  • This is why I said that those who believe that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket are “clueless”.