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For comparison, InTrade:
The topic of this post is:
Betting &- Information
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#1. Don’-t trade on the VP predictions markets.
I have stong reservations about those VP prediction markets. Only 2 men in the world know what is going to happen: Barack Obama, and John McCain.
You can’-t divine their final thoughts.
Politicians often lie about their intentions —-they also change mind, frequently.
The decision to name one VP nominee could be made in secret —-without any early warnings.
Surprise is a card that Barack Obama and John McCain could play. Don’-t bet against their final will.
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#2. Don’-t believe in “-vice presidential selection committees”-.
Last time, in 2000, a man named Dick Cheney was appointed to head George W. Bush’-s vice presidential selection committee.
He was supposed to scout around to find and assess good candidates.
Surprise, surprise, that fake committee ended up putting Dick Cheney on the Republican ticket —-and the rest is history (Iraq war, etc.).
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#3. Don’-t bet on Hillary Clinton as VP.
She does not have the slightest chance.
It’-s highly unlikely that Barack Obama selects her on the Democratic ticket.
Hillary Clinton as VP nominee (and as VP) would present many quasi insurmountable problems.
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#4. Don’-t listen to betting bloggers who tell you that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket.
They are clueless.
Don’-t read clueless people. They are a waste of time.
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#5. Select well your primary, advanced indicators.
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#6. Choose your bets (and trades) carefully.
Just because an event derivative is cheap doesn’-t mean that it’-s a good bet.
Don’-t pluck down money on a bet unless you’-ve seriously researched the topic by yourself —-and possesses some expertise or experience in that field.
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FOLLOW-UP POST: 2 days after my ringing the alarm bell… THE FREE FALL
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InTrade
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Democratic Vice President Nominee
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Republican Vice President Nominee
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BetFair
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Next Vice President:
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Democratic Ticket
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Democratic Vice President Nominee
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Republican Vice President Nominee
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NewsFutures
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Barack Obama will pick a woman as running mate.
© NewsFutures
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Explainer On Prediction Markets
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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out…- Intelligence in, intelligence out…-
A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.
Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.
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Commenter “-Just Hinting”- gives us this link:
Dick Morris phone interview
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
Dick Morris:
It would be an act of terminal insanity for Barack Obama to name Hillary Clinton as his vice presidential candidate. […] Finally, having Hillary in the West Wing would be a nightmare.
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Dick Morris:
Instead of conceding defeat and campaigning for Obama, auditioning for the spot of loyal teammate, Hillary insists on keeping her options open and vies for the spotlight with Obama, exactly what you do not want a vice president to do. […]
But the more serious problem is the public record that Todd Purdum, an excellent journalist, laid out in his Vanity Fair piece. Bill’s relationships with billionaires, his pursuit of financial gain, his alliance with the emir of Dubai, and his acceptance of speaking fees and income from some of the least savory of types is not what you need to carry around with you in a presidential race. […]
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More Info: See Andrew Sullivan…- who views Hillary Clinton as a detestable lady…-
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So, stay away from the “-Hillary Clinton As VP”- prediction markets…- 
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Expired prediction markets
InTrade
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
UPDATE:
– To be kept updated on the prediction markets, go to the frontpage of Midas Oracle, or click on the InTrade tag.
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Here are the expired contracts about the Democratic vice presidential nominee (Joe Biden).
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Here is the expired contract about the Repuiblican vice presidential nominee (Sarah Palin).
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ORIGINAL POST:
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Unlike Bo Cowgill, I have stong reservations about those VP prediction markets. Read this WSJ post, for more.
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InTrade
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Democratic Vice President Nominee
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Republican Vice President Nominee
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BetFair
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Next Vice President:
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Democratic Vice President Nominee
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Republican Vice President Nominee
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NewsFutures
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Barack Obama will pick a woman as running mate.
© NewsFutures
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Explainer On Prediction Markets
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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out…- Intelligence in, intelligence out…-
A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.
Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.
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Oregon’-s Democratic Primary
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InTrade
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BetFair
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Kentucky’-s Democratic Primary
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InTrade
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BetFair
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NewsFutures
Some delegates from FL or MI will be seated at the Democratic Convention.
© NewsFutures
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First look at individual states for the 2008 US presidential elections
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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual
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2008 US Presidential Elections
Source: Dynamic, compound prediction market charts from InTrade
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Next US President
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Winning Party
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Female President?
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Democratic Candidate
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Republican Candidate
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Source: BetFair Politics Zone
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Barack Obama to win the Democratic nomination
© NewsFutures
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Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic nomination
© NewsFutures
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Next US President Will Be Democratic.
© NewsFutures
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Next US President Will Be Republican.
© NewsFutures
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Explainer On Prediction Markets
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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out…- Intelligence in, intelligence out…-
A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.
Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.
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More Info:
– The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts
– Prediction Market Science
– The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets
– All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets
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Don’-t you love the Web? Within 15 minutes after my posting my absolute and definitive refusal to publish any bits about the VP prediction markets, I received a long rebuttal by Google’-s Bo Cowgill —-whose great prediction market paper is still for you to download (PDF file), by the way.
Okay, Okay, Okay.
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InTrade
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Democratic Vice President Nominee
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Republican Vice President Nominee
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BetFair
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Next Vice President:
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Democratic Vice President Nominee
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Republican Vice President Nominee
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NewsFutures
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Barack Obama will pick a woman as running mate.
© NewsFutures
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Explainer On Prediction Markets
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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out…- Intelligence in, intelligence out…-
A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.
Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
Superdelegate chicanery notwithstanding, Obama has won his party’-s nomination, so my head-to-head contest between a major pollster (Zogby) and major prediction market (Intrade) will be coming to a close.
Unsurprising to those who know a little bit about the scholarship, economics, and/or track record of prediction markets, the traders of Intrade provided us much better data this election season than the respondents to the Zogby polls.
| Standings | |||||
| Wins | Losses | Ties | Pct | Contender | Avg Eve Prob |
| 7 | 3 | 11 | 59.5% | Intrade | 71.3% |
| 3 | 7 | 11 | 40.5% | Zogby | 40.7% |
| Schedule | ||||||||||
| Score | Date | State | Party | Intrade | Zogby | Winner | Intrade Pct | Zogby Pct | ||
| 7-3-11 | 6-May | IN | Dem | Clinton | 2-way-tie | Clinton | 85% | 42% | ||
| 6-3-11 | 6-May | NC | Dem | Obama | Obama | Obama | 90% | 50% | ||
| 6-3-10 | 22-Apr | PA | Dem | Clinton | Clinton | Clinton | 82% | 47% | ||
| 6-3-9 | 4-Mar | OH | Dem | Clinton | 2-way-tie | Clinton | 70% | 45% | ||
| 5-3-9 | 4-Mar | TX | Dem | Obama | 2-way-tie | Clinton | 57% | 44% | ||
| 5-2-9 | 5-Feb | NJ | Rep | McCain | McCain | McCain | 96% | 52% | ||
| 5-2-8 | 5-Feb | NJ | Dem | Clinton | 2-way-tie | Clinton | 67% | 43% | ||
| 4-2-8 | 5-Feb | NY | Rep | McCain | McCain | McCain | 98% | 53% | ||
| 4-2-7 | 5-Feb | GA | Dem | Obama | Obama | Obama | 96% | 48% | ||
| 4-2-6 | 5-Feb | MO | Dem | Obama | Obama | Obama | 63% | 47% | ||
| 4-2-5 | 5-Feb | CA | Rep | McCain | Romney | McCain | 56% | 40% | ||
| 3-2-5 | 5-Feb | CA | Dem | Obama | Obama | Clinton | 52% | 46% | ||
| 3-2-4 | 29-Jan | FL | Rep | McCain | 2-way-tie | McCain | 51% | 33% | ||
| 2-2-4 | 26-Jan | SC | Dem | Obama | Obama | Obama | 90% | 38% | ||
| 2-2-3 | 19-Jan | SC | Rep | McCain | McCain | McCain | 56% | 29% | ||
| 2-2-2 | 19-Jan | NV | Dem | Obama | Clinton | Clinton | 54% | 42% | ||
| 2-1-2 | 15-Jan | MI | Rep | McCain | 2-way tie | Romney | 54% | 27% | ||
| 2-0-2 | 8-Jan | NH | Dem | Obama | Obama | Clinton | 91% | 39% | ||
| 2-0-1 | 8-Jan | NH | Rep | McCain | McCain | McCain | 82% | 34% | ||
| 2-0-0 | 3-Jan | IA | Dem | Obama | 3-way tie | Obama | 54% | 28% | ||
| 1-0-0 | 3-Jan | IA | Rep | Huckabee | 2-way tie | Huckabee | 53% | 28% | ||
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Lord willing, I will have another showdown season, but will most likely choose another pollster. Whereas Intrade listed contracts and probabilities for every state primary, Zogby only provided election eve updates for only 21 of the 87 held to date. Rasmussen stands out as a worthy pollster, but I would be happy with any candidate referrals from my readers as well.
Cross-posted from Caveat Bettor.
Previous blog posts by Caveat Bettor: