Robin Hanson debates a Mencius Moldbug on prediction markets, decision markets, and…- futarchy:
Foresight 2010 debate: Futarchy from Monica Anderson on Vimeo.
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Singapore is the safest.
2:15 into
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– Robin Hanson comments on Paul Hewitt’-s blog.
– Paul Hewitt comments on Eric Crampton’-s blog.
– Paul Hewitt comments on Robin Hanson’-s blog. Many exchanges with Robin Hanson. Read it all.
– Paul Hewitt:
[…] My point is that the case for prediction markets has not been made, at all. There is a tiny bit of proof that they are as good as alternative methods, and in a very few cases, very slightly better. Also, you need to be aware that even the slightly better prediction markets had the benefit of the alternative forecasting institution available to it. That is, the official forecasters at HP were also participants in the ever-so-slightly better prediction markets. […]
–->- I personally stay away from any discussion about conditional prediction markets (and futarchy). I prefer focusing on the ’-simple’- prediction markets.
Cato Handbook for Policymakers
Washington Post:
A soup-to-nuts agenda to reduce spending, kill programs, terminate whole agencies and dramatically restrict the power of the federal government.
Excellent.
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Lewis Sheperd (the Chief Technology Officer of Microsoft’s Institute for Advanced Technology in Governments):
Indeed, it appears to me that [prediction markets] are growing not from corporate or government use, but mostly organically from within academia, stock-futures circles and political-junkie communities. I’-m reading the interesting variety of writers and prediction-marketeers at Midas Oracle, which brings together widely ranging posts from faculty members at Harvard and other universities, daytraders, and even a few “amateurs.”
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Lewis Sheperd notes in his post that a number of for-profit companies (like Google and General Electric) are using private prediction markets (a.k.a. enterprise prediction markets). Non-for-profit organizations (like governmental agencies) would do great, too, using the same forecasting tool —-an “-information aggregation mechanism”- (IAM), more exactly.
Robin Hanson, instead of boring us with philosophy, go evangelizing that newbie.
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UPDATE: Yes, he is willing to learn. 
See his comment.
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