MIDAS ORACLE PROCLAIMS REPUBLICAN NICOLAS SARKOZY AS THE FRENCH PRESIDENT-ELECT.

No Gravatar

#1. Results of the first round: Republican Nicolas Sarkozy (31.2%), Socialist Segolene Royal (25.9%) &#8212-updated

Results First Round French Presidential Election

Then come Centrist Francois Bayrou (18.6%), Right-Wing Extremist Jean-Marie Le Pen (10.4%) and then the &#8220-small&#8221- candidates.

#2. The second round will be in two weeks: Republican Nicolas Sarkozy vs. Socialist Segolene Royal

All the polls have shown that the Republican Nicolas Sarkozy will beat her easily.

&#8212-

PREDICTION MARKETS: The market-generated probability of the Socialist candidate has increased. Easy to understand why. There was an uncertainty about the Socialist candidate: &#8220-Will she make it to the second round?&#8221-. Now this uncertainty is over. Blogger Mike Smithson makes it like it is big news, but that&#8217-s bullshit.

French Republican Nicolas Sarkozy: 77% at BetFair.

&#8212-

The Economist (Apr 12th 2007):

No French presidential election in 50 years has looked as unpredictable as this year’s, the first round of which takes place on April 22nd. […]

Complete bullshit. Give us the market-generated probabilities, instead of the &#8220-sentiment&#8221- of the journalos.

Previous: WHY THE ECONOMIST SHOULD ADD MARKET-GENERATED PROBABILITIES NEXT TO ITS CONTENT. + NEXT SUNDAY, THE FRENCH WILL ELECT REPUBLICAN NICOLAS SARKOZY AS THEIR PRESIDENT.

&#8212-

TAKEAWAY: French President Nicolas Sarkozy will reform the French economy &#8212-France is a socialist country, right now.

UPDATE: Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures has published an update about the 2007 French presidential election on the French group blog &#8220-AgoraVox&#8221-.