Jason Ruspini is against the Tobin Tax.

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Jason Ruspini:

Stock market winnings are taxed. It&#8217-s called capital gains, and the rate for short term trading of stocks is the normal income rate for individuals.

Of course, this tax will be felt for ordinary investors that hold mutual funds. If the average mutual fund has 100% annual turnover, a 1% tax becomes 2% in additional fees per year, or almost 50% over 20 years. You are arguing for making retirement more difficult.

Most fundamentally though, high frequency trading did not cause the crisis. If anything there was too little, not too much, pricing of mortgage securities. Think about it: even if high frequency trading increases daily volatility, that is not the kind of volatility people care about. People care about booms and busts in asset prices. They care about volatility at the monthly and annual level, which short term trading naturally has less to do with. Higher frequency traders buy AND sell.

Do not confuse flash trading with high frequency trading. Do not confuse problems related &#8220-short-termism&#8221- incentive effects with short term trading. Do not confuse volatility over short time frames with longer term volatility that actually affects peoples&#8217- lives.

A transaction tax might reduce volatility over short time frames, but it will probably increase the serial correlation of markets &#8212- their momentum &#8212- which may increase volatility at longer, more relevant, time frames. If trading is more expensive, booms and busts will be more prolonged.

Jesse Livermore’s 7 Trading Lessons

The late Jesse Livermore is considered one of the best traders of all time. His exploits have been chronicled in several books, with the most widely read being Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre, originally published in 1923.

Livermore was wealthy and broke several times over during his tumultuous life, which ended in his suicide. His ability to make and lose millions garnered him many lessons which the trading community have enshrined over the decades since his death. Yet these lessons and rules remain as pertinent today as they were in the early twentieth century.

We’ll take a look at several of his trading rules to remind us why we must have a plan in place before trading a dollar of our hard-earned money.

(I must give credit to the Lefevre book mentioned above, as well as Jesse Livermore: World’s Greatest Stock Trader by Richard Smitten, for the following ideas.)

Lesson Number One: Cut your losses quickly.

Nowhere is this rule more apparent than in the modern-day crash our markets experienced in the fall of 2008. For those market participants who “bought, held, and hoped,” the gut-wrenching drop left them paralyzed, disillusioned, and angry at the market. They felt like they had no control and no choice as the losses spiraled down the rabbit hole. The primary culprits of this death trap are hopeful thinking and fearful paranoia.

As a market slides lower, a trader will rationalize his losing position by either doubling down (buying more at these now-cheaper prices) or at the very least, holding on because “there’s just no way this market can go lower.” If merely this one simple rule was implemented to “cut your losses,” the vast majority of traders would be light years ahead of the crowd.

As soon as a trade is contemplated, a trader must know at what point in time he’ll be proven wrong and exit a position. If a trader doesn’t know his exit before he takes the entry, he might as well go to the racetrack or casino where at least the odds can be quantified. Trading without an exit plan is like driving a car without insurance. You might go years without a major crash, but when the crash occurs (and it will), you want to be protected from a major financial disaster.

Lesson Number Two: Confirm your judgment before going all in.

Livermore was famous for throwing out a small position and waiting for his thesis to be confirmed. Once the stock was traveling in the direction he desired, Livermore would pile on rapidly to maximize the returns. He admitted that his biggest mistake was holding on to a position as it ran against him, and then selling out when the pain got too great.

Livermore learned to remedy this dilemma by taking on a small line at first, and only adding when he was proven correct. There are several decent ways to buy more in a winning position (pyramiding up, buying in thirds at predetermined prices, being 100% in no more than 5% above the initial entry) but the take home is to buy in the direction of your winning trade — and never when it goes against you.

Lesson Number Three: Watch leading stocks for the best action.

One hundred years, ago Mr. Livermore didn’t have near as many issues to track, yet he made it his mission to follow the market makers and big players when their money flooded into a specific stock or commodity. Livermore knew that trending issues were where the big money would be made, and to fight this reality was a loser’s game.

Today, traders have the ability to track sectors, ETFs, and the footprints of the best mutual-fund managers to ascertain where the heavy hitters are moving their capital. Superstars such as Google (GOOG), Goldman Sachs (GS), and General Electric (GE) can also show their hand when looking at the bigger picture of overall market health. Traders ignore these tells at their own peril.

Lesson Number Four: Let profits ride until price action dictates otherwise.

Perhaps the most famous quote attributed to Livermore is, “It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.” Traders are wired to be “doing something,” and this can cause churning, over-trading, getting out of positions too soon, and making your broker the wealthy one. The famous Turtle Traders were trend traders who made few trades and had learned the importance of staying in a winning trade.

For today’s traders, there are multiple variations to keep you in a trade. It’s not so important which method you implement, but that you do recognize when to hold a winner for maximum potential, and when a trend has changed character and it’s time to ring the register.

One method that satisfies the desire for profit and subdues the fear of a losing trade is to take one half of your profit off at a predetermined level, put a stop at breakeven on the rest, and let it play out without micromanaging the position. Even day and swing traders will benefit from letting a partial position play out when all indicators hint that more upside might be in the cards. Always remember this rule is letting a profitable position run, but it’s not a license to bury one’s head on a losing position.

Lesson Number Five: Buy all-time new highs.

Traders love a bargain — trying to bottom feed, buying in on limit orders instead of market to save a penny, buying on dips, and various other trickery to try and catch the swing low of a trade. These same traders can also recount when saving a penny cost them a dollar, buying that dip was only the start of a long downtrend, and buying new lows only led to lower prices and more misery.

Livermore understood that when a trader buys new highs, that for that moment in time, the only holders are happy holders. Blue skies are above and there are no longer-term investors waiting to sell once they get back to break even. The psychological merits of buying all-time or 52-week highs are immense and shouldn’t be discounted as a part of your overall strategy.

Lesson Number Six: Use pivot points to determine trends.

Livermore famously called them “pivotal points” and today they’re better known as swing highs and swing lows. When going long, traders are continually looking for confirmation by assessing the strength of a move. Higher highs and higher lows are a solid indicator that a current uptrend is merely taking a slight pause, and the odds of higher prices are in their favor. These same pivot points are integral to drawing support and resistance lines to give traders their line in the sand. Taken together, trend lines and pivot points can enlighten a trader to a change in momentum, which may change the character of a trade.

Lesson Number Seven: Control your emotions.

Easier said than done in everyday life, let alone in one’s trading account, controlling those emotional demons that lurk under the surface may be the most difficult task for traders (beginners and seasoned alike) to master. You finally hit a quick 10-point winner, and the euphoria and pride rush in to give you a virtual high-five. You hold on past your mental stop-loss and watch your equity bleed like a leaking faucet, which in turn causes you to seethe with frustration, whether on the outside or internally. If there’s one absolute rule, it’s that every trader has to confront the role they allow their emotions to play in their trading life.

Livermore chronicles the times when he was trading for revenge, to get back his lost stake, or merely to prove he was right. By his own admission, these were terrible reasons to put on a trade, and he was at his finest when he blocked out the noise of his day and just watched the tape.

Our goal as traders should be to also make a critical yet honest assessment of the areas we can improve so the bottom line will support our claims of truly being seasoned traders. Adhering to the time-tested rules of Jesse Livermore would be a great start for anyone.

Ben Shannon on his misguided SELL stock market call delivered just before the stock market rally

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Ben Shannon on his &#8220-SELL&#8221- market call

Previously: Wiser Than The Stock Market &#8212- NOT

UPDATE: Andrew Page + Henry Blodget

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Wiser Than The Stock Market – NOT

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Ben Shannon (alias &#8220-Jesse Livermore&#8221-, who blogs at &#8220-Wiser Than The Crowd&#8221-) claims on his blog to have an uncanny ability at forecasting the future and profiting from it, whether it is speculating on InTrade&#8217-s prediction markets or on the US stock market. Here is his stock market call from July 10, 2009:

SELL SELL SELL

REALITY CHECK:

The stock market is up about 12% since Ben Shannon&#8217-s &#8220-sell sell sell&#8221- call on July 10th.

Spot the 10th on the chart&#8230- Ben Shannon sold the exact bottom immediately before the rally.

ben-shannon-stock-market

Thanks to Deep Throat for the tip.

UPDATE: Ben Shannon on his &#8220-SELL&#8221- market call

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Peter Schiff on Max Keisers The Oracle

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With this 6th episode, The Oracle is finally out of beta. The show is now well structured.

It is both informative and entertaining &#8212-and it has rhythm and style.

  • The TV show has 3 parts, as you all know, and each of these 3 parts focuses on one single issue. Excellent.
  • The interview of the main guest (this time, Peter Schiff) is well conducted and long enough so we can capture many insights &#8212-not just snippets.
  • The main guest is now a person of global stature &#8212-as opposed to the French, German and Arab guests (with strong foreign accents) we had to endure in the previous episodes.
  • Stacy Herbert (&#8221-The Queen Of Facts&#8221-) has finally been tamed. It was about time. (Women.) She now focuses on one single issue, introducing the issue of each of the 3 parts of the show.
  • Her &#8220-headlines&#8221- are now usable &#8212-they are now well readable on the TV screen. (She puts black headlines on a white screen, whereas The McLaughlin Group would rather put white headlines on a black screen. Both techniques are usable. It is a question of taste.)
  • She gave us a very good chart in part one. I want her to show one chart in each of the 3 segments of the show. I WANT CHARTS, STACY.
  • I never met Max Keiser in person. He was described to me as a friendly, low-key fella. But as soon as the red light flashes on the camera, he becomes another man &#8212-a funny, sometimes hilarious, financial animal, who immediately becomes the center of the attention. There is that expression in English that sums it up: &#8216-he is stealing the show&#8217-, literally. He expresses his contrarian arguments in a Daffy Duck-like voice, with some kind of exuberant body language rarely seen on TV &#8212-the fella is a spectacle by himself.
  • I hope that The Oracle (the disco machine that beams out the predictions) will be re-introduced in the show. It was a good gimmick.
  • I also hope they will feature prediction market charts, later on. :-D
  • Overall, the show is a very good piece of infotainment. I never quite saw this on TV before. There is the hilarity, but there is also the seriousness of dealing with the global banking, financial and economic crisis &#8212-quite not a laughing matter in the first place. Quite a mix.

Enough blogging.

Now, watch the show. :-D

The definitive proof that HubDub is an indispensable prediction exchange. [*]

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As I told you, I am blogging as often as possible on the other blog (Midas Oracle .COM) about the 2008 US presidential elections as seen thru the eyes of the prediction markets. As I wrote there this morning, I have just found out a truly interesting set of prediction markets at HubDub. (I wasn&#8217-t able to find its equivalent on InTrade, BetFair, or NewsFutures.) It&#8217-s trying to predict where the Dow Jones will be, come November 4, 2008. (As you may remember, the deeper the financial crisis, the more likely it is that Barack Obama will be elected president of the United States.)

As of this morning, the Dow Jones is barely above the 8,000 level (8,175.77), and the futures say that the stock market will rebound, at least in the first hours. However, I am bearish. I would bet that the Dow Jones will stay around the current level (or lower) until Election Day. In other words, I am betting on the red, on the chart below.

At what level will the Dow Jones Industrial Average close on Election Day?

[*] And if Emile (whom we highly respect, overall) is pissed off by that statement, then, great, that&#8217-s a cool unintended collateral consequence. :-D

VIDEO: The financial markets hacker who will impress Jason Ruspini

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http://moneytech.blip.tv/#955325

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Robin Hanson fanboy and InTrade trader Patri Freidman’s outing —as one of the “sexiest geeks alive”
  • Is the mechanism outputting Justin Wolfers as the most cited prediction market researcher completely rotten?
  • COLD FUSION: Before you go trading on InTrade, do solve that, first —if you can.
  • Kudos to BetFair’s e-mail marketing team?
  • Conditional prediction markets about oil price and SegWay sales… Like the idea, Robin Hanson?
  • Justin Wolfers [*] is the most cited prediction market economist
  • The Orb @ Texas Tech University

THE SILICON ALLEY BLOG COMES TO THE RESCUE OF THE PREDICTION MARKETS.

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Silicon Alley&#8217-s Jonathan Kennedy:

[…] In denouncing prediction markets as &#8220-wrong,&#8221- however, many pundits miss the point. Prediction markets do not provide accurate predictions of the future. (How could they? They simply represent the consensus guess of a group of people who aren&#8217-t prophets). They merely provide the most-informed guess as to what that future is likely to be.

As numerous &#8220-collective wisdom&#8221- studies have shown, the consensus guess is always better than the majority of the individual guesses that are factored into it (not sometimes&#8211-always). The collective wisdom, moreover, is often more accurate than that of ANY individual. Why? Because the market collectively incorporates far more information than is available to any one individual.

Like the stock market, prediction markets don&#8217-t get it right every time. They do, however, provide a useful window into the collective expectations of others&#8211-one that is often the best available estimate of the future. And they do sometimes get it right. Just as they did with Mr. McCain.

Bravo, mister Jonathan Kennedy.

&#8212-

Take that, Barry Ritholtz. :-D

In an upcoming post, we will review the strengths and weaknesses of these thinly traded prediction markets&#8230-

We are holding our breath, Barry. Hurry up.