CFTC has approved the Cantor Exchange…-
…-but won’-t approve its movie box-office prediction markets.
CFTC approves the Cantor Exchange, but wont approve its movie box-office prediction markets.
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Tag Archives: event derivatives
Odds on hung parliament in UK shorten after TV debate
So what effect did the UK‘-s first ever televised prime ministerial debate featuring Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg have on the political betting market?
Before the debate, the betting market on Betfair regarding who if anybody would secure an overall majority was as follows- Conservative Majority 1.75- No Overall Majority 2.68- Labour Majority 17.0.
After the debate, the market was betting as follows: Conservative Majority 1.83- No Overall Majority 2.54- Labour Majority 17.5.
Consensus opinion held that the Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg had performed best, and, there is little doubt that this debate represented a significant turning points as regards the publics perception of him. If he performs as well in the next two debates, this will have serious implications as regards the probability of a hung parliament. Accordingly, one would anticipate that the odds on No Overall Majority are likely to shorten further ahead of the actual election.
CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton on the Trend Exchange and the Cantor Exchanges movie box-office prediction markets
CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton on the movie box-office futures:
Via Max Keiser…- who has this to say:
I’m glad Chilton brought this up.
When I was CEO of HSX – I shared a board seat with members who were also on the board of Lionsgate Films.
Lionsgate was constantly moving the prices of their films (or films they had an interest in, or a friend’s film) on HSX as a way to manipulate perception and marketing dollar spends.
This conflict blew up in the now famous Access Hollywood incident-
http://www.villagevoice.com/1999-11-16/news/access-denied/
I was stopped from reporting the real numbers on HSX on Access Hollywood and prices from that moment forward were controlled by people who whose interests lay with the studios.
I went to war with the rest of the board to defend my creation, and my technology, and all the IP that is HSX/Cantorx – board members included Citibank and NBC who sided with the studios – in allowing the prices on HSX to be moved per ‘marketing’ requests made by the studios. This lead to a blowout on the board and my leaving HSX as a result.
Shortly thereafter, the same dissident board members engineered the deal with Cantor for HSX – that has yet to be consummated. None of the investors who put $40 mn. into HSX have ever seen a penny from Cantor. There is no paper trail that links Cantor to HSX. Cantor claims everything was lost on 9/11.
Now – they hope to take the studio/wall st. collusion to the next level via Cantor Exchange. Bart Chilton is right to be suspicious of this. Will they really due their due diligence? Doubtful. This is Wall St. we’re talking about.
Personally, I put 95% of my wealth in gold bullion 8 years ago – so to be clear – another blowup of another exchange will only drive the price of gold higher – so I am half-wanting to see this catastrophe unfold.
Why the CFTC wont approve the Cantor Exchange and the Trend Exchanges prediction markets on movie box office
Product approval (see below) is a different question from exchange approval (blogged previously by Mike Giberson).
CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton called it a a€?popcorn prediction market,a€? […]
Hollywood studios that participate by hedging their filmsa€™ prospects will doom ticket sales, said Peter Guber, chairman and CEO of independent production company Mandalay Pictures LLC.
a€?The word will get out in three seconds and the picture will be a complete catastrophe,a€? said Guber, who was chairman and CEO of Sony Pictures Entertainment in the early 1990s. […]
a€?We have serious concerns regarding the trading of media contracts and we support a very thorough review of all of these first-of-a-kind products,a€? CFTC Commissioner Scott Oa€™Malia said in an e-mailed statement.
U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln, an Arkansas Democrat, today added language banning trade in movie futures to a broader derivatives bill she is writing. Lincoln is chairman of the Agriculture Committee that oversees the commodity commission. […]
Activity on the exchanges would bring about a€?risky and manipulativea€? behavior, said Patrick Leahy, the Vermont Democrat who heads the Senate Judiciary Committee, and Senator Orrin Hatch, a Utah Republican.
a€?Ia€™m worried about manipulation,a€? Chilton said in an interview on Bloomberg Television before the vote.
Movie business person will confess to Max Keiser that he/she traded on insider information.
Why Hollywood Doesnt Want You Betting on Hollywood
Aljazeera TV promotes the lie that prediction markets are eerily accurate, sucking up to InTrades PR and Hansons spinning. – [VIDEO]
Prediction Market Video – [VIDEO]
“It is clear that the MPAA is not familiar with the futures markets or the regulatory framework within which they operate.
The Futures Industry Association:
No one can argue that the movie-making business is without risk or that there is no need for effective risk management tools. The potential introduction of innovative instruments for managing that risk should be applauded rather than criticized.
Via Max Keiser