Aljazeera TV promotes the lie that prediction markets are eerily accurate, sucking up to InTrades PR and Hansons spinning. – [VIDEO]
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Tag Archives: event derivative markets
Opponents of real-money prediction markets are strong and powerful.
Prediction Markets APIs
Are our betting exchanges’- APIs programmable?
Fred Wilson insists on read/write APIs (#5).
Any comments?
Speculating and hedging on BetFairs sports prediction markets
BetFairs Mark Davies (the Prince of betting exchange PR) has just gotten a second omelet in the face.
First, the Financial Times —-and, now, Freakonomics.
The journalistic rule should be that, if you cite one prediction exchange, you should cite the one that is the most liquid on the market you are writing about. For UK politics, it is clearly BetFair.
BetFair has clearly a PR problem.
The UK political prediction markets are starting to get fun.
The British Republicans (“-the Tories”-) have dipped a bit more at BetFair, yesterday, and everybody is wondering why. (See the first comment in the second link.) Expect Max Keiser to weight in. We are going to have fun this spring, I kind of feel that in the air. 
UPDATE: Bad poll for the Tories.
The Motion Picture Association Of America (MPAA) comes out as fiercely against movie business futures.
MAT FOGARTY FOR PRESIDENT
The sudden dip in March 16s InTrade ObamaCare prediction market was an intentional coup.
Allegedly, an idiot pressed the wrong button on March 16s InTrade ObamaCare prediction market. Do you buy it?
Here’s the most likely scenario as to what happened here:
Somebody had a decent short position. Say they had about 65 shares (the volume bars indicate that this was likely a <- 100 share transaction, ie, <- $5 worth of commissions for Intrade, so mentioning commissions / greed as a motivator is pure ignorance). They wanted to put up a buy of 65 shares at say 5%, so that if the price ever dips that low, they can close their short position and wind up with a nice profit. And then, big mistake, they hit sell instead of buy. The market plummets. Mystery solved. It’-s called human error.