The Emperor of enterprise prediction markets is naked.
Robin Hanson:
I can confirm that this disinterest is real. For example, when I try to sell firms on internal prediction markets wherein employees forecast things like sales and project completion dates, such firms usually don’t doubt my claims that such forecasts are cheap and more accurate. Nevertheless, they usually aren’t interested.
Topics of interest include but are not limited to:
human computation
social computing
crowdsourcing
wisdom of crowds (e.g., prediction markets)
group memory and problem-solving
deliberative democracy
animal collective behavior
mechanism design
organizational design
public policy design
ethics of collective intelligence (e.g., “-digital sweatshops”-)
computational models of group search and optimization
emergence of intelligence
new technologies for making groups smarter
Thomas Malone is a smart man, and his institution is a great idea. But I can’-t stand that:
Solving Climate Change with CrowdSourcing
I am fed up with the academics who are overselling the wisdom of crowds. Enough already.
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How Bets Among Employees Can Guide a Company’-s Future –- Internal prediction markets enable colleagues to wager on the fate of crucial projects and the success of products in the pipeline. –- Technology Review
Justin Wolfers is asked the question, but I would have a different answer than his.
The reason prediction markets are not widely used in business is that their many boosters (Robin Hanson, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, etc.) have exaggerated their usefulness. Just because they are objective in their wisdom does not mean that they are very useful.
Objectivity is over-rated. This is a painful lesson for the handful of young startups who swallowed the prediction market myth. Next step: the dead pool.
NewsFutures has become Lumenogic.
“-Collective intelligence for senior leadership”-…- —- the word in bold tells us a lot.
Part 4 is about prediction markets and InTrade.
Part 4 is about InTrade’-s prediction markets:
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