How Bets Among Employees Can Guide a Company’-s Future –- Internal prediction markets enable colleagues to wager on the fate of crucial projects and the success of products in the pipeline. –- Technology Review
Justin Wolfers is asked the question, but I would have a different answer than his.
The reason prediction markets are not widely used in business is that their many boosters (Robin Hanson, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, etc.) have exaggerated their usefulness. Just because they are objective in their wisdom does not mean that they are very useful.
Objectivity is over-rated. This is a painful lesson for the handful of young startups who swallowed the prediction market myth. Next step: the dead pool.
NewsFutures has become Lumenogic.
“-Collective intelligence for senior leadership”-…- —- the word in bold tells us a lot.
Part 4 is about prediction markets and InTrade.
Part 4 is about InTrade’-s prediction markets:
A commenter on his blog (Bill):
Why not experiment at GMU?
Have the students run the university using Futarchy principals. They pick the goals, then you use markets.
You can even start on a smaller scale, a class.
Report back on your experiment.
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You could turnA Bernardo Huberman‘-s study around and say that the HSX traders are not yet using Twitter as a source to the full extent possible.
