Here’-s the latest discussion.
The sudden dip in March 16s InTrade ObamaCare prediction market was an intentional coup.
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Tag Archives: Betting
Allegedly, an idiot pressed the wrong button on March 16s InTrade ObamaCare prediction market. Do you buy it?
Here’s the most likely scenario as to what happened here:
Somebody had a decent short position. Say they had about 65 shares (the volume bars indicate that this was likely a <- 100 share transaction, ie, <- $5 worth of commissions for Intrade, so mentioning commissions / greed as a motivator is pure ignorance). They wanted to put up a buy of 65 shares at say 5%, so that if the price ever dips that low, they can close their short position and wind up with a nice profit. And then, big mistake, they hit sell instead of buy. The market plummets. Mystery solved. It’-s called human error.
Bookmaker laying a la BetFair
At Ladbrokes, you can now bet on an anti event —-so to speak.
Via Mark Davies —-who rejoices.
Dear MO reader: Why you should try Predictalot
Why should you try Predictalot?
- Gamers: Make almost any prediction you can think of about March Madness, the NCAA men’-s basketball tournament.
- Sports fans: Check the crowd’-s odds: Is St. Mary’-s the next Cinderella?
- Economists: Play with a true combinatorial prediction market with 9.2 quintillion outcomes and a single pool of liquidity, unlike almost any other of today’-s financial and prediction markets.
- Geeks: Ponder some of the interesting computer science challenges, including approximating #P-hard problems and an eerily similar sampling problem as faced by physicists.
- Everybody’-s doing it.
- Barack Obama might do it, according to VentureBeat on NYTimes.com: “-President Barack Obama will likely be busy this week [but]…- maybe he’ll be able to sneak a peek at Predictalot on his BlackBerry between meetings.”-
Smarkets want you to believe that they are going after a much bigger betting market than BetFairs one.
Their CTO (Hunter Morris) is the first to present in the video. Watch out for his slide on casual and social betting.
Startups Rally –- Part I –- Elevator Pitches (4 of 4) from Plugg Conference on Vimeo.
Download this post if your feed player does not show you the video above.
External Link: Smarkets
If you are into rugby betting…
Internet Gambling Regulation, Consumer Protection and Enforcement Act
The BetFair and InTrade websites are going to be blocked in France…
…- unless they fork over “-in between 52,000 euros and 215,000 euros”- for a 5-year period.
Is that regulation or extortion? 
Expressing betting prices as percentages
Can I choose my style of odds?
We show percentage odds by default, but you can select the odds display of your choice from the top of every page. We offer American, fractional, decimal and percentage odds. Because we allow fans to set their own odds you may see some strange looking fractional or American odds, we recommend percentage odds as we think they are the most flexible and readable choice.
Does anybody (in Great Britain or elsewhere) disagree with that? Explain your view in the comments.
I do agree with Smarkets.
Betfair the Masonic Lodge
The relationship between William Hill and the betting exchanges has not been a good one. On January 29, 2003, David Harding on the subject of Betfair’s impact on the the over-round said- “Some racecourse markets now return overrounds of only 1.2 to 1.3 per cent per runner. That is not sustainable. I cannot have a price mechanism for 50% of my business being desecrated.
In a recent interview with Betview magazine Ralph Topping, Hills’ current head had this to say of Betfair-
“‘I call Betfair the choirboys of the betting industry – “look at us we’re so innocent” – actually the exchanges are the biggest Masonic lodge there is. They’re a massive secret society where illegal gambling is taking place. What would throw a spanner in the works is if William Hill came up with an exchange model which could be offered in our betting shops or through our telephone business.”
A fascinating portrayal of one of the most transparent betting companies in the world.
EDITOR’-S NOTE: BetFair’-s Mark Davies has his own take on the Topping statement.