Predictalot = combinatorial prediction markets (a la Robin Hanson)
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Tag Archives: betting markets
HSX-founder Max Keiser on the Cantor Exchange – [VIDEO]
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Jason Ruspini tells me that CNBC reports that the CFTC “-lifted its stay”- on the Cantor Exchange application yesterday. CNBC is going to interview Rich Jaycobs, today.
PS: You can play for free at:
Robin Hansons blah blah on futarchy (using conditional prediction markets to govern a country) – [VIDEO]
Robin Hanson debates a Mencius Moldbug on prediction markets, decision markets, and…- futarchy:
Foresight 2010 debate: Futarchy from Monica Anderson on Vimeo.
Download this post to watch the video —-if your feed reader does not show it to you.
CrowdCast is an enterprise software platform that helps companies make better forecasts by tapping the knowledge stored in their employees.
New NewsFutures prediction exchange in France
http://predipol.newsfutures.com/ —- play-money
And Today’-s Le Figaro features prediction markets, Emile tells me…- 
«Du coup, assure Emile Servan-Schreiber, on ne lit plus les articles de la meme maniere, un peu comme un analyste financier qui traque l’-info pour ensuite s’-en servir dans ses recommandations d’-investissement.»
Experts trading on prediction markets
Top tier sports, national elections, and Hollywood releases are all arenas in which all the information one might analyze is already pretty much public. There are many methods for predicting these outcomes, and I wouldn’t argue that prediction markets have a huge advantage in these arenas. The markets where I expect PMs to have an advantage are where there are experts who, given an incentive, could share (or discover) information that’s not already public, and where you don’t already have an enormous crowd trying to figure out the answer. Certainly it’s fun to bet on your team or party, or to develop expertise on how the public will react to particular movies, but it’s not clear to me that we get better predictions in those areas.
This is also one of my criticisms of the Servan-Schreiber paper. While I believe there are probably markets in which the availability of serious money to be won could attract people who’d be willing to spend research in order to get a better answer, NFL sports isn’t an arena where spending thousands of dollars will help you uncover facts that aren’t already in the mainstream media.
When we talk about CEO markets, or product release dates, or market penetration numbers, we’re talking about [prediction] markets in which the information isn’t already out there, and some people will spend time and effort to ferret out relevant facts for reputation (we see this often on Foresight Exchange) or money.
Vernon Smith is bullish on event derivative markets (a.k.a. prediction markets).
Vernon Smith (via):
So far as new applications of derivatives markets I think one possibility is we may see more people making, creating derivatives markets, betting markets on policy, public policy outcomes. We’-ve already seen that with regard to the Federal Reserve. There is a market now in which people are able to make, take positions on the likelihood of a change in the Federal Reserve Bank policy at their next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, so and these markets are concerned with the question of what the Federal Reserve Bank rate will be set at. So I think we may very well see more of these kinds of markets and this could very well provide some indication of how the participants in these markets evaluate some of the policy proposals that governments are making.
Watch the video (download this post if your feed reader does not show it to you):
Debate is raging between Robin Hanson and the futarchy critics
– Robin Hanson comments on Paul Hewitt’-s blog.
– Paul Hewitt comments on Eric Crampton’-s blog.
– Paul Hewitt comments on Robin Hanson’-s blog. Many exchanges with Robin Hanson. Read it all.
– Paul Hewitt:
[…] My point is that the case for prediction markets has not been made, at all. There is a tiny bit of proof that they are as good as alternative methods, and in a very few cases, very slightly better. Also, you need to be aware that even the slightly better prediction markets had the benefit of the alternative forecasting institution available to it. That is, the official forecasters at HP were also participants in the ever-so-slightly better prediction markets. […]
–->- I personally stay away from any discussion about conditional prediction markets (and futarchy). I prefer focusing on the ’-simple’- prediction markets.
Felix Salmon is cautiously bullish on prediction markets.
QUESTION: Tell me what you think of the (public, real-money) “-prediction markets”- (a.k.a. betting markets) without citing the names of either Robin Hanson or Justin Wolfers. Thanks. Are they useful, really? If not, then why are econ bloggers in love with them?
FELIX SALMON (#):
I used to be a bigger fan of them, before I discovered their enormous transaction costs:
http://www.felixsalmon.com/004529.html
If and when somebody makes an easy legal and cheap prediction market, I think it will be very useful indeed. For the time being, they’-re interesting and fun.
Prediction market blogger quits InTrade.
New Year Update
Posted by Jesse Livermore on Sunday, January 3, 2010
I’-ve been gone for a while. There just hasn’-t been that much happening on Intrade, and I’-ve been focusing on neuroscience.
Intrade has definitely gotten tougher over the past year. I think the 2008 election drew in a lot of people who weren’-t very good at politics or gambling. By now those people have either lost their money or gotten better. Hopefully the 2010 elections will draw in a new crop.
In the mean time, Intrade’-s management has not done a great job in developing the brand. My impression is that volume is off by more than 50% compared to last year. Chief difficulties:
– Absolutely no advertising whatsoever.
– Diminished interest in politics in an off-year.
– Getting money onto the site requires a lot of determination and a visit to a gas station to buy a Netspend card.
Future updates on this blog will be less-than-daily, basically when I have an opinion about politics that I feel like sharing.