BetFair-TradeFair fights corruption, while TradeSports-InTrade does not.

No GravatarTennis Corruption - NYT

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BetFair-TradeFair is legal and has ethics, while TradeSports-InTrade is not and has none.

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Via Steve Roman who provides the recap and another excerpt, The New York Times:

[&#8230-] At the center of the investigation is Betfair, one of the largest so-called online sports exchanges, which matches bettors directly against each other, rather than against the house, as traditional bookmakers do. Betfair set off the current crisis when it voided $7 million in bets after Mr. Davydenko withdrew from a match against 74th-ranked Martin Vassallo Arguello of Argentina at the Prokom Open in August in Sopot, Poland. Mr. Davydenko retired because of an injury with Mr. Vassallo Arguello ahead, 2-6, 6-3, 2-1. During the match, Betfair notified the ATP that its security team had recognized irregular betting patterns.

[&#8230-] At Betfair, which is based in London, tennis ranks third behind horse racing and soccer among its one million customers, who together place five million bets each day. More than $60 million was handled for the Wimbledon’s men’s final, won by Roger Federer over Rafael Nadal.

Robin Marks, a Betfair spokesman, said the decision to void the bets from the match in Poland — the first time the company had ever done so — was an easy one. A large amount of money was coming in for the obscure match, Mr. Marks said, and the betting patterns made little sense: Mr. Davydenko went from an odds-on favorite to a significant underdog before the match started, and his odds drifted higher and more money came in for Mr. Vassallo Arguello even after Mr. Davydenko won the first set.

By the next morning, Betfair’s 40-person security team had unearthed additional information by combing its records and tracing unique Internet addresses. Betfair passed on that information in accordance with the ATP’s anti-corruption program, which was put in place in 2003 in the wake of a match-fixing scandal in cricket. Mr. Marks said Betfair has similar agreements with 28 other sports leagues on which it takes bets. He declined to specify what Betfair had found. “Why would the betting patterns change before a ball was even hit?” Mr. Marks said. “Why would more money come in against him when he had already won the first set? You come to the assumption that somebody knew something.” [&#8230-]

Previously: BetFair has an anti-fraud team whereas InTrade-TradeSports has none.

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Terrorism Futures
  • InTrade-TradeSports and BetFair-TradeFair should take a close look at Cantor Fitzgerald’s strategy to gain a share of the $100 billion U.S. gambling industry.
  • The secrecy-seeking Mark Davies is solely to blame for all this mess… but this vibrating BetFair spin doctor has managed to repair the PR damages quite brillantly, it shall be said.
  • A Betting Exchange = A Bookmaker —> !??
  • BetFair’s new bet matching logic + BetFair Malta’s trading on the multiples
  • Dick Cheney, the new Churchill?
  • BetFair Malta’s combo market maker (trading algorithm + human market makers) operating on the multiples

BetFair embrace decision markets.

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Betfair has launched a series of innovative betting markets which will provide clear indications of how public opinion views the on-going debate about climate change, by allowing people to speculate on climate indices developed to track the extent (or otherwise) of global warming.

Betfair’s exchange model will create a market price for climate change related outcomes, including the HSBC Investable Climate Change Index, the ECX CFI Futures Contract, and Highest and Lowest UK Temperature. The commission that Betfair earns from operating these markets will be ring-fenced and invested in the development of technologies to tackle the wider issue of climate change.

In what is a major blow to prediction markets supporters, the Betfair press release refers to aggregating market mechanisms as &#8220-decision markets&#8221-, rather than &#8220-prediction markets&#8221–

‘Decision markets’ have historically proved to be accurate gauges of political, economic and cultural change and better forecasters of the future than opinion polls and expert forecasts. Efficient market theory suggests that these climate markets will be the best aggregation of all the available information on the subject. This is the ideal place for experts, academics, businesses and interested parties to put money behind their views on long-range forecasts.

It remains to be seen how Chris Masse responds to the Betfair announcement.

[External Links: HSBC Climate Index + Carbon Futures + Highest and Lowest UK Temperature Futures]

While TradeSports-InTrades growth seems slow, BetFair-TradeFair is poised to experience a formidable expansion in the coming years.

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The Independent of Ireland:

Betting exchange Betfair is to steal a march on its rivals with the introduction of a new service which will boost liquidity and offer punters the chance to make bets at starting prices. Up to now, betting exchanges, such as Betfair, operated by matching bets on either side. But it will now offer a guarantee that punters can get on as much as they need, as long as they are willing to plump for starting price (SP) odds. However, the SPs offered will not be those quoted in betting shops, but prices fixed by the exchange.

A spokesman said the new service was expected to give the business a big boost. &#8220-Currently, 40% of all bets are settled at SPs and this type of business tended to pass us by up to now,&#8221- he said. Betfair is already the largest exchange operation, ahead of the Dermot Desmond-owned Betdaq business. Estimates put the market share of exchanges at around 5% and this development could significantly boost that figure, the spokesman said.

Well, best wishes to BetFair-TradeFair.

Previously: The BetFair Starting Prices… explained

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The marketing association between BetFair and TOTE Tasmania works better than expected.
  • The term “event markets” sucks —and the uncritical thinkers using this crappy term suck too.
  • CLIMBING HIS WAY TO THE TOP: Erik Snowberg is now Assistant Professor of Economics and Political Science at California Institute of Technology.
  • Unlike other countries, the United States of America defends the freedom to offend in speech.
  • The best research papers on prediction markets
  • 2008 Electoral Map
  • American Enterprise Institute’s Center For Regulatory And Market Studies (Policy Markets)

The BetFair Starting Prices… explained

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The Guardian (which has the best coverage on BetFair-TradeFair):

The Betfair betting exchange will launch its starting price betting service in the middle of next month, after it received the approval of a number of the exchange&#8217-s biggest-staking clients at a series of demonstrations over the last seven days.

Betfair has spent two years developing a robust system to allow bets to be placed at its own SP. As a result, three extra columns will soon be added to its display for every win market on its British and Irish racing service: one for bets on a horse at the Betfair SP, one for &#8220-lay&#8221- bets against it at SP, and a &#8220-guide&#8221- price in the middle showing what the SP is likely to be.

The SP market and the normal exchange market will be separate, in an attempt to ensure that it is extremely difficult to manipulate the SP. Betfair also hopes to offset any reduction in overall liquidity – which is vital to any exchange – by attracting new clients.

The great majority of off-course bets are still settled at the official SP, derived from on-course betting markets, while even on the internet, around 55% of racing bets are settled at SP. The Betfair SP, derived from a market with a negligible profit margin, will allow punters to make a direct comparison between the bookmakers&#8217- odds and those on offer on the exchange.

SP bets will have some differences from &#8220-normal&#8221- bets on Betfair. Whereas normal bets can be cancelled until the moment when a rival gambler accepts the other side of the bet, SP bets cannot be cancelled once placed. Punters can, however, specify a minimum price at which they are willing to back, and a maximum price for lay bets.

In time, SP betting is likely to extend to the exchange&#8217-s place-only markets, and to many other sports in which the SP concept has never been used before.

&#8220-This has the potential to be the most significant step forward for Betfair since the exchange was launched,&#8221- Stephen Burn, Betfair&#8217-s director of horse racing, said yesterday. &#8220-Racing is scratching the surface. In time, we hope that we will be able to add it across football, tennis and so on. We could even return an SP on the next general election.&#8221-

Niall O&#8217-Connor has more.

NEXT: More on BetFair&#8217-s Starting Prices.

Meet David Jack, the managing director of TradeFair.

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David Jack is on the right&#8230- (here with Andrew &#8220-Bert&#8221- Black, the BetFair co-founder).

David Jack, the managing director of TradeFair

David Jack (Managing Director of TradeFair, a BetFair spin-off)

Previously: Binaries and Spreads: BetFair spins off TradeFair.

NEXT: Why does Tradefair care about Prediction Markets – by TradeFair&#8217-s David Jack – 2007-12-06

Binaries and Spreads: BetFair spins off TradeFair.

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Via &#8220-jwolstenholme&#8221- and via Niall O&#8217-Connor, who got the scoop, here&#8217-s UK-based TradeFair (Binaries and Spreads):

TradeFair

&#8211-&gt- David Jack (Managing Director of TradeFair) &#8212- (Thanks to Niall for the LinkedIn link.)

The Global Betting Exchange

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The company behind BETDAQ will launch a new exchange in the near future. It is backed by significant players in the global sports trading market. It will offer breath of markets and level of liquidity unsurpassed in the betting exchange sphere. It wil target the retail exchange bettor. It will not be purple in colour.

Main investor: Dermot Desmond

Alleged investor: J. P. McManus

Other investors: [One or two surprises to come…]

Signed: Deep Throat

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The Global Betting Exchange

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Note to the Midas Oracle readers: Actually, there are two brand-new, real-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) that will pop up onto the prediction market scene soon. (That is, Global Betting Exchange is only one of them.)

Once again, the BetFair legal department censors the traders.

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BetFair forum:

Postings in relation to ‘race-fixing’ trial
Betfair Customer Services 09 Oct 10:39

Whilst the criminal trial involving 3 jockeys and others is sub judice (i.e. being considered in court), comment on the case is inappropriate and could even be an offence in itself leading to contempt of court proceeding against those commenting. This is particularly true given the criminal charges being considered where publicly discussing such cases sub judice may constitute interference with due process (not least because jurors may be exposed to such public discussion).

As a consequence whilst this matter remains sub judice, forum postings discussing the matter will be removed as and when they come to Betfair’s attention. This also means we will have to revoke forum posting rights of customers who persist in commenting on the case on Betfair’s forums.

BetFair traders, come on Midas Oracle to post your comments on the Fallon case. Here, we do not censor anyone.

UPDATE: They talk about the Fallon case in the Chamber of Lords. (See next page.)

The Racing Post and TimeForm/BetFair are two competitors in the UK horseracing data publication business.

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The Racing Post and TimeForm compete in the same space- they make money from horse racing data. The Racing Post through its newspaper- TimeForm through its database publications. On the Web, they compete head to head in many respects &#8212-and both give away a certain proportion of their content for free.

The Racing Post model is heavily skewed towards the old betting market model- fixed odds bookmakers- price comparison etc- while BetFair (the new owner of TimeForm) is based on the Web. On top of that, BetFair does not need The Racing Post that much, whereas The Racing Post needs BetFair. The fact that BetFair&#8217-s prices are dynamic (and, 99% of the time, the best prices on offer) fucks up The Racing Post&#8217-s model.

Signed: Deep Throat

External Links: BetFair (the owner of TimeForm) + The Racing Post

Previously: In the UK, BetFair is pushing the bookmakers into the betting museum.

BetFair will soon announce plans to publish their own starting prices.

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Probably, in response to this.

In horse racing, starting prices (SP) are the odds prevailing in the on-course fixed-odds betting market at the time a race begins. The method by which they are set for each runner varies in different countries but is generally by consensus of an appointed panel on the basis of their observations of the fluctuation in prices.

Signed: Deep Throat