Tag Archives: BetFair

One thing John Delaney and his Irish employees at InTrade-TradeSports can learn from the BetFair-TradeFair folks at HammerSmith.

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POLITENESS.

Tomorrow’s overnight cards

Betfair Customer Services 18 Jan 19:14
Please be aware that all our overnight cards for Saturday’s racing are currently suspended while we investigate a potential technical issue. Please accept our apologies for the inconvenience this will cause. At this stage it is unclear when they will be re-opened.

Betfair Customer Services 18 Jan 22:54
All tomorrow&#8217-s cards are now re-opened. Once again, please accept our apologies for any inconvenience caused.

Bombastic blogger Chris Masse could take some lessons from them, too. :-D

Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • Davos – World Economic Forum
  • CME Group = Chicago Mercantile Exchange + Chicago Board Of Trade
  • Democratic and Republican caucuses in Nevada + Republican primary in South Carolina
  • The BetFair blog is not a serious publication.
  • MICHIGAN PRIMARY @ BETFAIR: Niall O’Connor asks the very pertinent question.
  • BetFair compound chart on the Michigan primary
  • New Hampshire fiasco blamed on lack of InTrade traders’ diversity

The Future of the Prediction Markets

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No GravatarEven a prediction market fanboy feeds on the polls &#8212-first and foremost. Steve Dubner, the journalist and co-author of Freakonomics, is, along with his two blog colleagues (Steve Levitt and Justin Wolfers), a strong supporter of the prediction markets. They all have blogged enthusiastically on prediction markets, since the inception of their blog. Steve Levitt calls the InTrade-TradeSports people in Ireland his &#8220-friends&#8220-. Wow. The Freakonomics blog even has a &#8220-Prediction Markets&#8221- blogroll (i.e., a list of external weblinks to the best resources on prediction markets) &#8212-where, of course :-D , Midas Oracle is the cornerstone. :-D To sum it all up, Steve Dubner and his colleagues are true believers in the predictive power of the prediction markets. Good.

Until you analyze this Steve Dubner&#8217-s Freudian lapsus:

[&#8230-] (Fascinating aside: according to a recent Times poll cited in the article linked above, the Florida G.O.P. race is as of now a virtual deadlock between four candidates: Huckabee, Giuliani, McCain, and Romney. This will almost certainly shift as a result of interceding activity, but still, what a spectacle!)

Which forecasting tool does Steve Dubner use to get a sense of the political race du jour? Not the prediction markets&#8230- but the polls.

That speaks volume on the nature of the prediction markets, as forecasting tools.

  1. The polls and the surveys are the primary purveyors of crucial political information, which the political analysts (and&#8230- Steve Dubner :-D ) use to write their reports.
  2. The political prediction markets feed on polls, aggregate them (and other disparate pieces of information), and delivers &#8220-the consensus opinion in a much finer and dynamic way than all the amorphous media buzz&#8220-. They are secondary forecasting tools. They are taken seriously only by the free-market believers (like us) &#8230- but, as the Steve Dubner&#8217-s quote shows, even the prediction market true believers check the polls first.

I think that:

  1. Because of its nature, the prediction market prism, which quantifies the impact of the news, will never be the dominant forecasting tool.
  2. Prediction market journalism will remain on the fringe. It should be developed to serve a targeted audience &#8212-the free-market believers, the busy people, and the event derivative traders.
  3. Conditional prediction markets (a.k.a. decision-aid markets) will never be taken seriously by the decision makers and the public. Robin Hanson&#8217-s tool is very smart, though. Applications should be found within the community of free-market believers, rather.
  4. Enterprise prediction markets (a la Google, Inkling Markets, Consensus Point, etc.) are very interesting because they reflect inside information that can&#8217-t be conveyed by the corporations&#8217- internal media.
  5. The prediction market approach (embodied by InTrade) will always be weaker than the betting exchange approach (embodied by BetFair). I still believe, though, that each prediction exchange should employ both &#8212-which is not the case, right now.

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ADDENDUM: In fairnesses to Steve Dubner, it should be noted that, in the same post, he put up a blunt challenge to polling methodology:

[&#8230-] As for the discrepancy between the two polling questions, take note: that’s the difference between a fill-in-the-blank polling question (i.e., “Which is the most important problem …”) versus a leading polling question (”Do you view crime as a ‘very serious problem’?”). The next time you read a poll and think it may be hinky, ask yourself what question the pollsters actually asked. [&#8230-]

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Red Herring’s list of the top 100 North-American high-tech startups includes Inkling Markets —but not NewsFutures, Consensus Point, or Xpree.
  • Professor Koleman Strumpf explains the prediction markets to the countryland people.
  • Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset.
  • Time magazine interview the 2 BetFair-Tradefair co-founders, and not a single time do they pronounce the magic words, “prediction markets”.
  • One Deep Throat told me that this VC firm might have been connected with the Irish prediction exchange, at inception.
  • BetFair Rapid = BetFair’s standalone, local, PC-based, order-entry software for prediction markets
  • Michael Moore tells the Democratic people to go Barack Obama in Pennsylvania (a two-tier state), but the polls and the prediction markets tell us that that won’t do the trick.

The BetFair blog claims a worldwide victory.

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UPDATE: I just got it that Professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams&#8217-s story and the BetFair compound chart published on top of his story should be understood independently from each other, as this chart was pasted there by the BetFair blog editor.

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Winston Churchill

Professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams on the official BetFair blog:

[&#8230-] Those taking the same advice on Tuesday evening [2008-01-15 = date of the Michigan primary] were similarly well rewarded as well-backed Mitt Romney stormed into clear favouritism in the markets and a comfortable victory at the polls. After a blip in the New Hampshire Democratic primary the old certainties – that election favourites tend to win elections – was re-established.

As in the Republican New Hampshire primary, the polls and pundits had declared the race between Senator McCain and Governor Romney as a toss-up while the betting markets pointed to a comfortable victory in both cases for the eventual winners. Once again, in the battle of the polls, pundits and markets, the power of the betting markets to assimilate the collective knowledge and wisdom of the crowd had prevailed. [&#8230-]

No BetFair charts are provided. Bad prediction market journalism.

UPDATE: The compound chart was under my very nose:

Michigan BeFair

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UPDATE: I just got it that Professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams&#8217-s story and the BetFair compound chart published on top of his story should be understood independently from each other, as this chart was pasted there by the BetFair blog editor.

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UPDATE: The BetFair blog has added a new label on the infamous compound chart&#8230-

Compound chart - BetFair blog fiasco

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NEXT: Did the BetFair blog use trading data from InTrade to hint at BetFair&#8217-s accuracy??

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For your information, I re-publish below the InTrade charts of the last 3 primary races (Wyoming excluded). [BetFair and NewsFutures do not provide on their site the charts of expired contracts. I could ask them later, though.]

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Iowa

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The Democrats.

The Barack Obama event derivative was expired to 100.

Dem Iowa Obama

Dem Iowa Clinton

Dem Iowa Edwards

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The Republicans

The Mike Huckabee event derivative was expired to 100.

Rep Iowa Huckabee

Rep Iowa omney

Rep Iowa McCain

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New Hampshire

&#8212-

The Democrats

&#8212-

The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100.

Dem NH Clinton

Dem NH Obama

Dem NH Edwards

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The Republicans

&#8212-

The John McCain event derivative was expired to 100.

Rep NH McCain

Rep NH Romney

Rep NH Huckabee

Rep NH Giuliani

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Michigan

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The Democrats

The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100.

MI Dem Clinton

MI Dem Obama

MI Dem Edwards

MI Dem Field

&#8212-

The Republicans

The Mitt Romney event derivative was expired to 100.

MI Rep Romney

MI Rep McCain

MI Rep Giuliani

MI Rep Field

Source: InTrade

Author Profile&nbsp-Editor and Publisher of Midas Oracle .ORG .NET .COM &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s mugshot &#8212- Contact Chris Masse &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s LinkedIn profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s FaceBook profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s Google profile &#8212- Sophia-Antipolis, France, E.U. Read more from this author&#8230-

Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • Are David Pennock’s search engine prediction markets the worst marketing disaster since the New Coke?
  • Midas Oracle is incontestably [*] the best vertical portal to prediction markets.
  • Comment spam paid by Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures-Bet2Give
  • BetFair Games needs a Swedish provider to develop its gambling offerings.
  • When Markets Beat the Polls – Scientific American Magazine
  • Robin Hanson has some fanboy in India. Great. Tiny caveat: The parroting Indian writer does not acknowledge Robin Hanson by name.
  • Molecular Nanotechnology

The answer to any anti-prediction market backlash is quality, impartial, exchange-independent, science-based, diligent, pro-PM blogging.

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No GravatarIs John Delaney the greatest psychic of all times (past, present, and future)?

Deep Throat is very impressed by how accurate the InTrade-TradeSports CEO&#8217-s 2005 prediction turned out to be. According to Deep Throat, the great Irish oracle &#8220-accurately predicted back in early 2005 in a PM conference in NY that someday the markets will make a horribly wrong prediction and that the [prediction market] industry will take a lot of s**t for it.&#8221-

Hummm&#8230-.

Deep Throat is easily impressed. What about the prediction below, then:

  • One of these days, a powerful hurricane will land in one of the southern states, and make billions of dollars in damage.

Vague and obvious predictions are of little help, here. An interesting thought to have, collectively, is how to prepare well in advance to counter such a backlash &#8212-as it is sure to happen again in the coming years. Due to the readers&#8217- new behavior (using the Web to get their info), the conversational aspect of the Web (comments, bloggers responding to their peers), and the velocity of the bloggers (tempests in tea cups spread over one or two days, and then the bloggers move on), the answer is quality, impartial, exchange-independent, science-based, diligent, pro-PM blogging.

You will note that InTrade-TradeSports, BetFair, NewsFutures, and the other PM firms, are completely absent from the dialogue between anti and pro PMs. The BetFair blog has not published anything about the New Hampshire fiasco, and the InTrade bulletin has only put in writing, on a post, the post-NH market-generated probabilities &#8212-without adding any bit of analysis. Totally pointless and useless corporate publications.

As for me, I have worked hard to put our group blog, Midas Oracle, on the blogging scene. I will further this endeavor and announce new initiatives in the future &#8212-if I am able to do so.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • NUCLEAR SCANDAL: HubDub allow their traders to bet on celebrities’ death.
  • APRIL FOOL’S DAY: This year, again, CNET makes fun of the wisdom of crowds.
  • Play-money prediction exchange HubDub is a phenomenal success.
  • BetFair Australia’s spin doctor tells all about their payments to the horse race industry.
  • Meet Jeffrey Ma (at right on the photo), the ProTrade co-founder, and whose gambling life is the basis of the upcoming movie, 21.

Prediction markets are forecasting tools of convenience that feed on advanced indicators.

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Why were the political prediction markets so wrong about Barak Obama and Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire?

&#8230-asks Slate&#8217-s Daniel Gross &#8212-via Mister Usability (Alex Kirtland), who needs to go and get his own gravatar.

So, I&#8217-ve been watching the action in one of the political futures markets this evening, Intrade. And the action in this prediction market has reinforced my opinion that these are less futures markets than immediate-past markets. The price movement tends to respond to conventional wisdom and polling data- it doesn&#8217-t lead them.

Throughout the day and into the early evening, while polls were still open, Democratic investors, mimicking the post-Iowa c.w. and polls, believed Obama was highly likely to be the Democratic nominee. The Obama contract was trading in the lows 70s, meaning investors believed he had a 70 percent chance of being the nominee, while Hillary Clinton contracts were in the 20s. […] At 6 p.m., this market had written Hillary Clinton&#8217-s entire presidential campaign off. At 9:30 p.m., it was calling a dead heat. What caused investors to change their minds so drastically in the space of a couple of hours? A few data points that went against the day&#8217-s prevailing conventional wisdom and polls. […]

See also Niall O&#8217-Connor&#8217-s assessment:

I am looking forward to the post New Hampshire Caucus, when all you prediction market advocates crawl out from under your stones. For the record at one point the market on Intrade and Betfair was suggesting that Obama had a 95% probability of winning the caucas- whilst Intrade had him at 77% to win the nomination.A case perhaps of both the foolery of crowds and, the market biting back.

New Hampshire will go down as the Black Wednesday of prediction markets and unless there is now objective transparent debate (as opposed to the usual biased sabre rattling) – prediction markets will be dead in the water.

My answer to Dan Gross&#8217- legitimate question and to Niall O&#8217-Connor&#8217-s snarky comment:

  1. Prediction markets are forecasting tools of convenience that feed on advanced indicators. When those advanced indicators are wrong, the prediction markets are wrong.
  2. If you prefer the polls or the pundits, your call &#8212-but polls and pundits were also wrong, this time, right? Required reading for mister Niall O&#8217-Connor: &#8220-New Hampshire&#8217-s Polling Fiasco&#8221- + &#8220-Analysis: pundits eat crow&#8220-.
  3. The ultimate forecasting tool would be a way to reverse our psychological arrow of time &#8212-so as to remember the future instead of the past. Only science-fiction writers and some imbecile ( :-D ) believe in that.
  4. The prediction market approach is to stick with the markets, on the long term. Take their successes. Take their failures. Unlike Donald Luskin and Markos Moulitsas, Chris Masse will not turn against the prediction markets when they fail punctually. What counts is the long series.
  5. My first point should be included in the prediction markets approach definition, in my view, but others (like economist Michael Giberson) might have different opinions.
  6. With respect to my first point, I bet that the prediction markets will never replace the polls as the forecasting tool of choice for political analysts &#8212-on that particular point (but not on a myriad of others), I break away from Justin Wolfers&#8217- irrational exuberance and I side with Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures (my preferred play-money prediction exchange). Prediction market reporting will have a function, indeed (as suggests Justin Wolfers), but not the dominant function.
  7. Going forward, prediction market journalism should emphasize relative accuracy (as opposed to absolute accuracy) &#8212-that is, comparing prediction markets with polls and pundits, which is what Robin Hanson has said from day one. Our good friend Niall O&#8217-Connor has difficulty to compute that, apparently. He should eat more fish. :-D

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Justin Wolfers:

“In a few years, we may regard the second half of the 20th century as the aberration in which the press used polls rather than markets to track political races,” Justin Wolfers, a business professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, wrote in an e-mail message. “And in the 21st century, we may return to the habits of the early 20th century, reporting on political races through the lens of prediction markets rather than polls.”

Emile Servan-Scheiber:

1) The traders themselves are the first to look at the polls to inform their trades. So the polls are here to stay.

2) Our recent experience in Western Europe seems to indicate that the superior accuracy of markets over polls when predicting elections may be a U.S. artifact that isn’t so easily reproducible elsewhere. I’ve discussed this with Forrest Nelson of IEM [Iowa Electronic Markets], and apparently, ever since the Truman-Dewey polling debacle of 1948, U.S. pollsters have adopted a policy of reporting mostly raw numbers rather than projections based on sophisticated secret formulas, so they can’t be accused of manipulating opinion. However, raw numbers are notoriously unreliable when based on small samples, and Western European pollsters never report them, preferring instead to publish projections based on historically-informed statistical formulas. What we’ve observed in France and Holland is that it it’s very hard to beat the accuracy of such projections.

[I don’t make mine Emile Servan-Schreiber’s second point, but that’s a minor.]

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InTrade&#8217-s expired prediction markets:

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New Hampshire

&#8212-

The Democrats

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The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100.

Dem NH Clinton

Dem NH Obama

Dem NH Edwards

&#8212-

The Republicans

&#8212-

The John McCain event derivative was expired to 100.

Rep NH McCain

Rep NH Romney

Rep NH Huckabee

Rep NH Giuliani

&#8212-

Iowa

&#8212-

The Democrats.

The Barack Obama event derivative was expired to 100.

Dem Iowa Obama

Dem Iowa Clinton

Dem Iowa Edwards

&#8212-

The Republicans

The Mike Huckabee event derivative was expired to 100.

Rep Iowa Huckabee

Rep Iowa omney

Rep Iowa McCain

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Source: InTrade

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[A more complete prediction market reporting should have included expired contracts from NewsFutures and BetFair. Sorry for that. Note that InTrade-TradeSports is the only exchange to offer a “closed contacts” section.]

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NEXT: Prediction Markets 101 + Who did best in explaining the prediction markets to the lynching crowd? + After the New Hampshire fiasco, 16 people came to defend the prediction markets, so far. + The prediction markets deserve a fair trial. + Prediction Markets = the greatest time-saving invention of this century

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An Inconvenient Truth – Al Gores movie

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I just saw the DVD &#8212-and so did George Tziralis&#8217- brother.

An Inconvenient Truth - Al Gore’s movie

The main points:

  1. The Keeling curve, measuring CO2 from the Mauna Loa Observatory. [See chart below.]
  2. The retreat of numerous glaciers is shown in before-and-after photographs (see Retreat of glaciers since 1850).
  3. A study by researchers at the Physics Institute at the University of Bern and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica presenting data from Antarctic ice cores showing carbon dioxide concentrations higher than at any time during the past 650,000 years.
  4. Temperature record since 1880 showing that the ten hottest years ever measured in this atmospheric record have all occurred in the last fourteen years.
  5. A 2004 survey by Naomi Oreskes of 928 peer-reviewed scientific articles on global climate change published between 1993 and 2003. The survey, published as an editorial in the journal Science, found that every article either supported the human-caused global warming consensus or did not comment on it.

Keeling Curve

Real Climate:

[…] How well does the film handle the science? Admirably, I thought. It is remarkably up to date, with reference to some of the very latest research. Discussion of recent changes in Antarctica and Greenland are expertly laid out. He also does a very good job in talking about the relationship between sea surface temperature and hurricane intensity. As one might expect, he uses the Katrina disaster to underscore the point that climate change may have serious impacts on society, but he doesn&#8217-t highlight the connection any more than is appropriate [].

There are a few scientific errors that are important in the film. […]

For the most part, I think Gore gets the science right, just as he did in Earth in the Balance. The small errors don&#8217-t detract from Gore&#8217-s main point, which is that we in the United States have the technological and institutional ability to have a significant impact on the future trajectory of climate change. This is not entirely a scientific issue — indeed, Gore repeatedly makes the point that it is a moral issue — but Gore draws heavily on Pacala and Socolow&#8217-s recent work to show that the technology is there [].

I&#8217-ll admit that I have been a bit of a skeptic about our ability to take any substantive action, especially here in the U.S. Gore&#8217-s aim is to change that viewpoint, and the colleagues I saw the movie with all seem to agree that [Al Gore] is successful.

In short: this film is worth seeing. It opens in early June.

External Link: Al Gore&#8217-s critics.

Previously: The London School of Economics chose InTrade-TradeSports over BetFair-TradeFair for floating event derivatives on global warming. + InTrade’s global warming prediction markets are more socially interesting than BetFair’s ones. + BetFair’s Global Warming Prediction Markets &#8212- CFM&#8217-s Views

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • A second look at HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets”
  • Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
  • US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
  • If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
  • THE CFTC’s SECRET AGENDA —UNVEILED.
  • “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
  • Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.

InTrade are aware; BetFair are not.

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No GravatarDavid Pennock, the Yahoo! research scientist, in April 2007:

One of the great things about InTrade (recently split from TradeSports) is that they are open to suggestions from wide-eyed academics. [&#8230-]

Exactly.

Previously: The London School of Economics chose InTrade-TradeSports over BetFair-TradeFair for floating event derivatives on global warming.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • If Midas Oracle were to meet, would we use Huddle, and why?
  • WORLD’S SUCH A SMALL PLACE: Smarkets meet HubDub.
  • 50% of our prediction market luminaries have a MacBook.
  • STRAIGHT FROM OUR TRUISM DEPARTMENT: Money buys happiness.
  • Ron Paul (R) and Barney Frank (D) ally together to attack “the practical hurdles of the federal law, known as the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, rather than its legitimacy”.
  • Clicking on the “SPHERE: RELATED CONTENT” button, at the bottom of each Midas Oracle post, will bring you a list of external webspots.
  • FRIGHTENING: Jed Christiansen’s prediction market blog was briefly overtaken by web spammers, who inserted invisible links to their commercial sites so as to game the Google PageRank system.

Do sports prediction markets corrupt sport? No.

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Mark Davies (&#8221-managing director of corporate affairs at BetFair&#8221- = their spin doctor) in The Guardian:

Does the existence of betting exchanges corrupt sport?

NO

In the world of finance, it has always been far easier for employees to have a negative impact on a company&#8217-s share price than a positive one. Even a chief executive would be hard pushed to cause a price rise on any given day, but anyone with physical access to the company can very easily cause a fall. No one would suggest people should only be able to buy shares, and not sell them. Instead, regulators ensure that sanctions against corruption tip the balance heavily against trying it. Make the penalty draconian, and you deal with corruption at its heart.

Betting on sport is no different. The only people who can corrupt sport are those taking part – a fact unchanged by the existence of betting exchanges. If you prevent people from succumbing to the temptation, would-be corrupters have no one to help them . You and I cannot rig a race just because we can bet against its outcome: we need someone who can affect the result. If that person might lose a livelihood, would they risk it for a fast buck?

Attack corruption at source, and it does not matter where the bet was placed. Nevertheless, some still long for the days when more traditional bookmakers held every card (an interesting notion considering what has historically been their dubious reputation)- others prefer a Tote monopoly- and some believe that banning bets against outcomes would constrain corrupters.

This series of arguments is based on the naive belief that a black market does not exist. This is absurd. Asian syndicates behind apparently rigged football matches (like those who turned floodlights out at grounds in the late 1990s) are no more dependent on Britain&#8217-s legitimate market than Colombian drugs barons are on sales of aspirin at Boots. The difference between legal, regulated, transparent betting – nowhere more so than on the leading betting exchange [= BetFair], where every transaction is open to scrutiny from 29 different sporting regulators – and the murky, illegal market, is the difference between chalk and cheese.

Black markets thrive where legal ones offer poor value. Now that the exchanges offer the best value, those previously tempted by odds on the black market are returning to the legal fold. Corruption-free sport comes from total transparency. The exchanges are the only part of the market that offer it. People get hung up on &#8220-betting to lose&#8221-.

Leave aside the obvious: bets to win (most clearly demonstrated in two outcome sports like tennis or snooker) are direct bets on the opposite outcome to lose. &#8220-Betting to lose&#8221- is just betting at value: if the price unfairly reflects the realistic chance of something happening, why should you not bet against it?

Value bets, placed for or against, are perfectly legitimate- acting to impact a given outcome adversely is corrupt. But banning the former through fear of the latter is like banning cutlery because some people use knives to harm. It is not the knives doing the damage, but the criminals using them. Legal betting does not corrupt sport- people do – and they are more likely to do it when they think they w ill not get caught. Measures to protect sport are not best aimed at open, transparent, and audited betting markets but through its participants, where the corruption can occur.

Excellent.

TradeFairs David Jack = the $20 million man

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Hidden this morning deep into The Sunday Times:

Betfair, the online sports-betting firm, has invested ?10m to launch Tradefair, a new subsidiary company specialising in bets on the financial markets. It believes that the market for financial betting could exceed ?400m. [*] Tradefair will operate independently of its parent. [**]

?10 million = $20.3 million = €13.9 million &#8212- [Thanks to David Pennock’s Yahoo! Currency Converter. :-D ]

[*] BetFair and TradeFair traders share the same BetFair account, as I understand it.

[**] I suppose (based on BetFair&#8217-s share of the UK betting market) that TradeFair wants 5% of that (for a start) &#8212-so that would be ?20 million. &#8212- But we don&#8217-t know what that ?400 million figure came from, in the first place. David Jack&#8217-s wet dreams? For the UK market only (in an increasingly global environment for exchanges)? For what year exactly? 2008? 2026? Mystery. Of course, no source is cited.

Previously: Binaries and Spreads: BetFair spins off TradeFair. + Meet David Jack, the managing director of TradeFair. + TradeFair Binaries User Guide – What is Trading? + BetFair’s Global Warming Prediction Markets — CFM’s Views + Why does Tradefair care about Prediction Markets – by TradeFair&#8217-s David &#8220-$20 million&#8221- Jack – 2007-12-06

Fallon Betfair Trial Collapses

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Mr Justice Forbes said today that Australian horse race expert Mr Murrihy in his witness statement had been critical of the riding in 13 of the races and that there was a prima facie case against the jockeys. However, he added:

Remarkably, it was only in cross-examination that the very significant limitations and shortcomings in the evidence he was able to give became clear.

In court, Mr Murrihy had said &#8216-it was not incumbent that I verse myself in UK or other jurisdiction rules&#8217-.

Mr Murrihy also said in evidence:

I have not said I was an expert in respect of UK races.

The judge said in his ruling today:

This is an extraordinary admission given that he was purporting to give evidence about 27 races run in the UK according to UK racing rules&#8230-. In my opinion, that was tantamount to Mr Murrihy disqualifying himself in giving evidence in relation to the suspect races. In my opinion it is now clear that Mr Murrihy&#8217-s evidence was subject to a number of significant limitations and shortcomings which were not evident from his witness statements and his evidence in chief. It is abundantly clear that his evidence fell far, far short of establishing a prima facie breach of UK racing rules. I have reached the conclusion that even if it was appropriate to admit Mr Murrihy&#8217-s expert opinion, its probative value is so limited that very little value can be attached to it.

The judge said there was insufficient evidence on which a jury could conclude that the jockeys, and therefore all the defendants, were guilty.

The British Horseracing Authority said after the case:

The restrictions placed on the three jockeys involved in the proceedings expired at the conclusion of the proceedings. Kieren Fallon, who is licensed by the Irish Turf Club, is therefore able to ride in Great Britain, and Fergal Lynch and Darren Williams are able to re-apply for their jockey licences.

Fallon&#8217-s spokesman immediately called for two inquiries into the case – one into the police testimony, the other into why the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) proceeded with the trial. He estimated the trial cost taxpayers ?10m.

Fallon, 41, from County Clare, Ireland, and two other jockeys, Fergal Lynch and Darren Williams, were charged with conspiracy to defraud customers of Betfair, the world&#8217-s biggest online gambling service. The former owner and racing syndicate director, Miles Rodgers, was also charged with conspiracy to defraud and with an offence under the Proceeds of Crime Act.

[External Link: BBC News]