The Betting King – The ATP Tour was his NASDAQ.
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Tag Archives: BetFair
Britons cant get enough of Yankees politics.
Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:
- WARREN BUFFETT: I said that the US dollar might be “worth less” in five to ten years —not that it might be “worthless”.
- The Year Of The Rat should bring $$$ to the prediction market industry and the event derivative traders.
- WordPress founder Matt Mullenweg is my hero and so he should be yours.
- InTrade-TradeSports has seen more than $50 million wagered on the U.S. presidential election.
- Prediction markets on who is going to win an election are more accurate then the final Gallup poll.
- LinkedIn will be data-mining its database of millions of users to find potential experts.
- TURNING POINT: BARACK OBAMA EVENT DERIVATIVE NOW AHEAD FOR BOTH DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION AND NOVEMBER’S ELECTION.
The true numbers of the BetFair blog readership
They do poorly, as of today. Not surprising, since their content is not interesting (to say the least, and to stay correct). The only traction in the feed readership stats (compiled by the Google Reader, the world’-s most popular feed reader), right now, is the portion of the BetFair blog that is written by a female professional Poker player (”-Annette 15″-). She is sponsored by BetFair Poker.
Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:
- WordPress founder Matt Mullenweg is my hero and so he should be yours.
- InTrade-TradeSports has seen more than $50 million wagered on the U.S. presidential election.
- Prediction markets on who is going to win an election are more accurate then the final Gallup poll.
- LinkedIn will be data-mining its database of millions of users to find potential experts.
- Britons can’t get enough of Yankee’s politics.
- TURNING POINT: BARACK OBAMA EVENT DERIVATIVE NOW AHEAD FOR BOTH DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION AND NOVEMBER’S ELECTION.
- Five reasons Hillary Clinton should be worried
BetFair Digital Odds = BetFair Probabilities
Odds that Hillary Clinton gets the 2008 Democratic nomination = 1.56 (digital odds taken at 9:15 AM EST)
To get the implied probability expressed in percentage:
- Take the number “-1″–
- Divided it by the digital odds (here “-1.56″-)-
- Then multiply the result by 100-
- 64.1% = ( 1 / 1.56 ) x 100
BetFair-generated implied probability is not far away from InTrade’-s 62.1%.
Psstt…- This present post was prompted by Niall O’-Connor, who puts all his faith in the BetFair instant “-over-round”- —-which indeed doesn’-t add up to the virgin and perfect “-100%”- that Niall is seeking (like the Monthy Python were seeking the Holy Grail). Good luck for your quest, Niall.
Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries!
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External Resource: Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities – (PDF file) – by Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz
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NEXT: Implied Probability of an Outcome –-BetFair Edition
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Heres an example of the total crap that the BetFair blog is publishing.
BetFair blog:
Pamela Anderson’-s Poker Guru
PAMELA Anderson says she is “-done with the marriage thing”-.Pammy is divorcing her third husband. The marriage lasted four months. Says Pammy: “-My mom wishes I was born gay”-. She adds: “-I am in the market for a good divorce attorney.”- And, who knows, maybe the attorney is the market for a wife. Of course, before her next marriage, Pammy has to complete her divorce from the man we call [?] Rick Salomon and Metro newspaper calls a “-poker guru”-. A guru is a recognized leader in a field, an acknowledged and influential advocate of a movement or idea. Rick Salomon is the man best known for appearing as “-him”- in the first Paris Hilton sex tape. He is not a poker guru. He is just someone who plays poker, sometimes…-
Don’-t be a Rick, play online…- [link to the BetFair Poker site]
The posting is anonymous, as always, on that crappy blog.
No external link to the original news source —-of course.
Pointless content, as usual. Why thinking before writing, when a vomit can do the trick?
As for rhetoric quality, my 6-year-old nephew could do better, if encouraged by a Hershey kiss.
Is there any adult in Hammersmith monitoring what the kids are doing on their computers?
Is professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams wise to write for that crappy blog? Justin Wolfers’- association with the Wall Street Journal seems more adequate for a university professor.
Author Profile -Editor and Publisher of Midas Oracle .ORG .NET .COM —- Chris Masse’-s mugshot —- Contact Chris Masse —- Chris Masse’-s LinkedIn profile —- Chris Masse’-s FaceBook profile —- Chris Masse’-s Google profile —- Sophia-Antipolis, France, E.U. Read more from this author…-Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:
- A case of advertisement mistaken for content
- Michael Shermer’s The Mind of The Market
- A prediction market panel… where only 2 out of 5 are truly prediction market experts. What a nuclear joke. This poor line-up is the reflection of the poor state of the prediction market industry in the US… and the inherent mediocrity of the conference business.
- VentureBeat makes it like established veterans NewsFutures, Consensus Point and Inkling Markets are contemporary of just-out-of-the-egg Xpree.
- 13 lines for Justin Wolfers, but only 2 lines and one word for Eric Zitzewitz — Mat Fogarty, what were you thinking of?
- Ducted Wind Turbines (DFWT)
- The Betting King — The ATP Tour was his NASDAQ.
No more anonymized trading data, please. State your source(s).
I think that’-s the takeaway from the BetFair blog fiasco.
My questions are still unanswered this morning. What data was used to concoct that dithyrambic write-up about the predictive power of the “-betting markets”- on the 2008 US primaries and caucuses (and in particular the Michigan race)? BetFair? If so, please, send me the expired charts. InTrade? Another source? A cocktail of sources? Please, cite everything, so we can check.
I will blog about this issue, every day, till it is resolved —-one way or another. I’-m resilient.
I’-ll blog about this BetFair blog fiasco for the whole year of 2008, and more, “-to infinity and beyond”- (as said Buzz LightYear in Toy Story), if that’-s what it takes to get answers from Hammersmith and Nottingham. Those folks are as voluble as yellow canaries, usually, when it comes to touting their wares. Cat got their tongue? What data did they use for their dithyrambic blog post? Is that so confidential?
Did the BetFair blog use trading data from InTrade to hint at BetFairs accuracy??
Latest update on the BetFair blog fiasco
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I am alerted today that the BetFair blog has updated its infamous Michigan story with a new compound chart bearing a clearer label. It reads now:
Republican nomination – The race so far
I’-ll have some comments, below the chart, but first a technical note. The new chart posted is a 527-KB BMP image. I have replaced it with a 32-KB JPG image. The BetFair blog is not run professionally. Any web publisher knows that images should be reduced to the max. That’-s the ABC of web publishing. (And to add insult to injury, I noted previously the technical bizarrery that the two professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams’-s stories never appeared in the BetFair blog feed.)
For you information, I have updated all my previous blog posts on the topic with an addendum re-publishing this new chart.
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UPDATED ANALYSIS OF THE BETFAIR BLOG FIASCO:
- Professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams should have defined what he means by “-betting markets”-, in his story. In the past (see the addendum of that story), prof Leighton Vaughan-Williams used two types of cocktail —-one including all betting markets (traditional bookmaker odds and exchange odds), one including only the BetFair odds. He should publish an addendum to his story defining exactly what he means by “-betting markets”-, this time.
- The BetFair blog editor should not have pasted a BetFair compound chart behind the writer’-s back. It’-s a big no-no in editing. Again, another proof (in a long list) that the Betfair blog is not run professionally.
- If a chart were to be inserted on top of LVW’-s story (with his consent, we hope), it should have been the expired chart(s) of the Michigan primary, since that’-s the heart of LVW’-s story.
- The fact that the BetFair blog editor pasted (behind LVW’-s back) a BetFair chart lead the readers (like Niall Or’-Connor and me) to conclude that professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams means “-the BetFair betting markets”- when he writes about “-the betting markets”-. This is probably not the case, but nobody knows for sure —-see my point #1 for the need of an explainer on this.
- Now, if professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams means “-the BetFair betting market”- (I assign a low probability on this scenario), then the story looks bad. The story is bullish on the fact that the Mitt Romney event derivative (for the Michigan primary) was predictive. The election-day chart that I published yesterday evening (and republished below) shows Mitt Romney being the favorite starting at 3:00 PM EST on election day…- Kind of a stretch to claim victory for the BetFair betting markets. I’-m still waiting for BetFair to send me the full, historical chart on the Michigan primary.
- BetFair should publish all expired charts —-just like InTrade-TradeSports are doing. See my new page, re-publishing some important expired prediction market charts. That way, any controversy could be settled more quickly.
- With all due respect to him, it looks bad on professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams for giving his writings to a corporate blog where the publisher and editor’-s names are not listed anywhere, and whose overall content quality is feeble —-to say the least. Especially since we read the testimony of a furious Betair blog writer, who described the BetFair blog editor as anonymous, incompetent and tyrannical.
- Besides Niall O’-Connor’-s critical comments, professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams’-s story on the BetFair blog has attracted a negative comment, calling his argument “-questionable to say the least“-, and asking (as I am doing on this current post) for more data to be published in an addendum.
- It looks bad on the BetFair management for publishing completely crappy stories like that. It damages the BetFair brand. I should tell my readers, though, that the BetFair-TradeFair managers (like Michel Robb, Tony Clare, Mark Davies, David Jack, Robin Marks, etc.) are highly professional, efficient, law-abiding, forward-looking, helpful, ethical, polite, and respectful. It is a real pity that the BetFair blog tarnishes BetFair’-s reputation.
- Betair should focus on being a prediction market resource for journalists and bloggers. As of today, they still don’-t provide on their website dynamic charts and expired charts.
- As I repeated many times on Midas Oracle, prediction market journalism is hard, complex and costly. It can’-t be done by any living organism (hermaphrodite or not
) simply equipped with a computer and an Internet connection.
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As an addendum, I re-publish here the election-day Michigan chart (on the Republican side). As I said, I’-m still waiting for BetFair to send me the full, historical chart. You can see, on this Republican-side chart, Mitt Romney (in red) as the Comeback Kid —-starting at 3:00PM EST on election day (that’-s 8:00 PM, British time, on the chart).
For your information, here’-s what professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams wrote. As I said, an explainer from him is needed to determine whether he means the “-betting markets”- in general (with, or without, BetFair included?) or the “-BetFair betting markets”-.
Professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams on the official BetFair blog:
[…] Those taking the same advice on Tuesday evening [2008-01-15 = date of the Michigan primary] were similarly well rewarded as well-backed Mitt Romney stormed into clear favouritism in the markets and a comfortable victory at the polls. After a blip in the New Hampshire Democratic primary the old certainties – that election favourites tend to win elections – was re-established.
As in the Republican New Hampshire primary, the polls and pundits had declared the race between Senator McCain and Governor Romney as a toss-up while the betting markets pointed to a comfortable victory in both cases for the eventual winners. Once again, in the battle of the polls, pundits and markets, the power of the betting markets to assimilate the collective knowledge and wisdom of the crowd had prevailed. […]
As for the InTrade “-betting markets”-, if that’-s what professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams means (solely, or among others), they show a strong support for Mitt Romney in the last 2 days (which includes election day). Kind of a stretch to claim a victory for the “-betting markets”-. Also, it would be funny to have the (anynomized) InTrade data interpreted on the blog of another exchange (BetFair, a competitor of InTrade-TradeSports) to hint about the alleged strength and accuracy of the BetFair “-betting markets”-. That would be the last drop that breaks the water bucket. Another reason why professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams should come forward to explain what he means by “-betting markets”- in his story. Does he mean the “-InTrade betting markets”-???
(FYI, the Mitt Romney event derivative was expired to 100.)
Psstt…- Sounds like a vertical line is lacking on this chart…- Look at the right end…- Bizarre.
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NEXT: No more anonymized trading data, please. State your source(s).
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The Michigan primary as seen thru the BetFair prediction markets
Thanks to Michael Robb from BetFair, I can show you the charts of the last day of trading on Michigan’-s election day. You can see, on the Republican chart, Mitt Romney (in red) as the Comeback Kid —-starting at 3:00PM EST (that’-s 8:00 PM, British time, on the chart).
Here is the full, historical, compound chart that I already published:
Is that the Michigan primary, really? Bizarre.There is something I don’-t get. Compare with the InTrade charts.
Fat fingers at BetFair? Did they mess with the legend? Or is this compound chart about another primary? (Which one, then??) Bizarre, bizarre.
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TAKEAWAY ABOUT THE BETFAIR BLOG FIASCO:
- It looks bad for the BetFair blog editor, who pasted that compound chart on top of professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams’-s story. One week later, it is still impossible for me to comprehend what that compound chart is supposed to represent, and what it is doing on that page. Big mystery.
- It is a shame that the BetFair blog hasn’-t published an update note stating that that compound chart was pasted there by the editor (behind prof LVW’-s back) and explaining what the writer meant by “-betting markets”-. Still a puzzle.
- With all due respect to him, it looks bad on professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams for giving his writings to a corporate blog where the publisher and editor’-s names are not listed anywhere, and whose overall content quality is feeble —-to say the least.
- And, by the way, how come professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams’-s posts are always excluded from the general BetFair blog feed? Is that a technical glitch? Or is it by design? Bizarre.
- The BetFair blog is not a serious publication. Period. I wonder whether I should link again to it, in the future. Probably not.
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UPDATE: The BetFair blog has added a new label on the infamous compound chart…-
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NEXT: Did the BetFair blog use trading data from InTrade to hint at BetFair’-s accuracy??
Democratic and Republican caucuses in Nevada + Republican primary in South Carolina
Here are the event derivative charts of expired InTrade contracts.
[Psstt…- I have high hopes about being able to publish the charts of expired BetFair contracts, too, soon. ]
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Democratic and Republican caucuses in Nevada
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Democratic caucus in Nevada (the Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired at 100):
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Republican caucus in Nevada (the Mitt Romney event derivative was expired at 100):
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Republican primary in South Carolina
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Republican primary in South Carolina (the John McCain event derivative was expired to 100):
“-Field”- = Mike Husckabee
Source: InTrade
Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:
- Super Bowl XLII
- The Glorious Incertitude Of Sports
- TradeSports Cost Of Transaction
- The prediction market industry needs people who have balls.
- Is it good to have a prediction market melting pot of academics and businesses?
- Is it time to buy some Michael Bloomberg event derivatives?
- Professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams excluded from the BetFair blog feed
The BetFair blog is not a serious publication.
I just got it that professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams’-s story published on the official BetFair blog and the BetFair compound chart published on top of his story should be understood independently from each other, as the BetFair chart was pasted there by the BetFair blog editor.
(I have updated all my previous posts on the topic with the explainer above.)
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TAKEAWAY:
- Professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams talked about “-betting markets”- in his story. Those “-betting markets”- were not defined precisely on that page.
- The BetFair compound chart, pasted by the BetFair blog editor on top of Professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams’- story, has lead readers (like the ultra-vigilant Niall O’-Connor) to believe that “-betting markets”- meant the BetFair betting markets.
- It was probably not the case, in the writer’-s mind. To be sure, though, an explainer should be issued by the BetFair blog.
- The BetFair blog editor has an omelette on his/her face.
- I told you many times that the Betfair blog is a piece of crap.
- A writer for this blog told us so, too.
- As I said many times, web journalism is not for anybody. It’-s a specialty trade. It requires vertical skills. And, more precisely, prediction market journalism, in our digital times, is difficult and complex. It’-s sad to see that the BetFair-TradeFair executives haven’-t computed that.
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UPDATE: The BetFair blog has added a new label on the infamous compound chart…-
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NEXT: Did the BetFair blog use trading data from InTrade to hint at BetFair’-s accuracy??