BetFair withdraws / improves its brand-new matching-bet logic, which was (kind of) endorsed by the Chairman of the Midas Oracle Advisory Board.

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Via Dave, BetFair:

Changes to Betfair’s bet matching logic – update

Betfair Customer Services 19 Mar 10:47

We’ve been trialling a new process for matching customer bets recently which has prompted considerable debate among some of our customers. Some of that debate has been misinformed and we apologise for that. It is clearly our responsibility to ensure customers are given a clear understanding of what we are actually doing and, hopefully, this comprehensive communication and the forum Q&amp-A today will help explain what is happening.

The purpose of the recent change is to increase a customer’s chance of getting a bet matched. However, we recognise that the change we’ve made has been the subject of concern for some customers. In response to customer feedback, we will suspend matching bets across selections when an applicable market is turned in-play. For the time being, bets will be matched on in-play markets as they were prior to the change. Matching across selections will be reintroduced only when we can offer best execution or its equivalent. As we have explained before, the new bet matching process does not affect any Horse Racing markets.

Until recently Betfair’s bet matching process would only look to match customer back bets against lay bets on the same selection in the same market. There are often circumstances where we could improve on that, for example, where we have customer back bet requests on all selections but no suitable lay bets to match them against.

In the past those requests would have been initially unmatched, and may or may not have been subsequently matched by other customers. When Betfair first started, we used to perform this additional cross-matching service for customers. This was suspended in 2002 for purely technical reasons – we didn’t have a mechanism for matching across selections without having a negative impact on the performance of the site.

Betfair’s bet matching process is now more efficient and that allows us to reintroduce this functionality. Whilst leaving the existing logic that matches backs vs. lays unchanged, we’ve added functionality that matches bets across runners ONLY if those bets could not have been matched conventionally. At the moment, that doesn’t give us the option of providing a price improvement even where this would be theoretically possible. This is because matching across selections only happens after the conventional matching process that allows us to improve prices has completed.

We are working towards having a bet matching process in place that both allows customers to see the best prices they could have a bet cross-matched at, and to provide a price improvement where this is possible. However, that’s technically much more complex because it requires significant changes to the process that matches backs vs. lays. Understandably, before we could implement that there’s also a significant amount of testing required, both to ensure that the functionality works as expected and to ensure that the performance of the site isn’t affected, and this is taking longer than anticipated.

Clearly if bets are matched where a price improvement would theoretically be possible, but which the current process can’t provide, then matching those bets will result in Betfair accruing the difference. There’s been speculation that the motivation for the change is the short-term additional revenue for Betfair that not being able to provide price improvements would cause. That isn’t the case. The model for Betfair’s betting exchange remains to match customer bets where possible, to provide price improvements where possible, and to charge a commission on winning positions. The motivation for introducing this change is to make it easier for customers to get bets matched, and to reduce the load on the site by making it pointless for customers who use automated tools to bombard the site with traffic looking for arbitrage opportunities.

However, because we’re not currently in a position where we can improve prices when matching across selections, and to clearly demonstrate that the motivation for the change is to improve customers’ chances of having bets matched rather than any short-term profit, we’ve decided to make the following changes:

1. We have suspended, with immediate effect, matching bets across selections for in-play markets until best execution – or its equivalent – can be implemented.

2. We will shortly reintroduce bet matching across selections but ONLY where bets have been requested at prices that we couldn’t improve even if best execution was in place.

e.g. if a customer requests 2.0 to back a tennis player, and another requests 2.0 to match his opponent we will match those bets. However if we have customer requests to back those two players at 1.99 and 2.0 respectively we will not match them. Those bets will remain unmatched.

3. In the near future we will introduce functionality that both displays prices that could be matched across selections and matches them providing a price improvement wherever possible.

In every case, we will communicate any proposed change in advance of it being introduced onto the site.

Your feedback on this issue has been much appreciated and we continue to welcome your comments via the forum, our helpdesk or directly with members of our staff.

While the forum Q&amp-A is to answer questions specifically related to this topic we will hold regular forum Q&amp-A sessions covering a much wider range of topics in the very near future.

Sounds great.

Any thoughts, folks?

They didn&#8217-t clear up the issue of how and when BetFair operates on its own markets, though.

[See this post for more on “best execution”.]

One un-hired job candidate and one HammerSmith employee tell all about BetFair Maltas combo market maker (trading algorithm + human market makers) operating on the multiples.

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Graham “Sharp” Minds, in a comment on Midas Oracle:

I am one of the people who Ed Murray has referred to in this blog. I was interviewed at Hammersmith by Betfair during the summer. For the time being I am going to concentrate on what Betfair has finally admitted from the past, present and future plans that betfair outlined to me.

&#8220-Loki Lab Rat 18 Mar 08:20 I can answer this one quickly. There is a trading team based in Malta which manages the risk around the multiples product. They have software which tells them what the risk is associated with a potential result is and suggests what hedge bets can be placed to mitigate that risk at current exchange prices. They then place the hedge bets to manage the risk. They place the bets using the same software as everyone else using the site and respecting any in-play delays.&#8220-

There is 3 objectives for the &#8220-Maltese&#8221- trading team, &#8220-Maltese&#8221- is in quotation marks because betfair were unclear to me about who and what parts of the trading team were still going to be based in London and those who were going to be in Malta.


i) Hedging
ii) Trading
iii) Arbing

All 3 amount to the same thing, Betfair playing their own markets.

On each of the 3 points

i) Hedging, this is what Betfair has admitted to and has been doing to from day 1 of the multiples. Betfair admit to taking the other side of the bet for the mutiples, so I guess like any other bookmaker it is only natural they &#8220-hedge&#8221- their bets to reduce potential liabilites.

However unlike traditional bookmakers, who will lay off a multiple when one runs up, the bets taken by Betfair multiples are placed directly back into the exchanges before they &#8220-run-up&#8221-.

This is one of the reasons behind the mutliple groups, they look at the back/lays placed on the mutiples for the first match and then the bets are placed into the exchange to reduce the liabilites and to cream off the difference between the price they have offered and that offered on the exchanges.

ii) Trading, this is what betfair are attempting at the moment, albeit unsuccessfully from what I last heard. Betfair have admitted they change their hedging positions, this by definition is trading. however the most serious aspect of their trading, is the in-running trading.

If betfair have accepted liabilities X &amp- Y for events A and B being the outcome of a match, then why would liability X for A or Y for B be no longer acceptable during a match unless there was an advantage to be gained by trading betfair’s position in-running?

Afterall, on betfair’s exchange with a 100% book, whether that 100% book was an efficient or inefficient, the net expectation of betfairs position would remain the same if they were trading hedging positions blindly to &#8220-balance&#8221- the liabilities.

In the instance of an inefficient market, if betfair were blindly trading (i.e. not using odds compilers, traders or other means to form an opinion on the market) in-running then there would be no net gain as betfair would be equally likely to be on the efficient and inefficient prices and the differences would average out.

iii) Arbing, this is betfairs ultimate goal for the multiples. If this new cross-matching bot is being called a superbot, then this will be the hyperbot. A bot which will perfectly arb the mutiple bets into the exchange so betfair can make money from it’s mutiples operation risk free.

But if betfair are denying that they never form an opinion to a market and place bets accordingly and they have no plans to do this in the future either. Then why are they covertly recruiting academics from universities, odds compilers from the bookmakers and recognised traders from their own customer base?

If betfair are playing their own markets, then what is to stop them abusing the position they have by owning the exchange. Having worked for several bookmakers in the past, I have yet to know one who would voluntarily wait 5 secs to place their &#8220-hedges&#8221-, wait in the queue like everyone else, make trading decisions according to the flow of money or not use their &#8220-warm sources&#8221- wisely.

Via Dave, Loki Lab Rat:

I can answer this one quickly. There is a trading team based in Malta which manages the risk around the multiples product. They have software which tells them what the risk is associated with a potential result is and suggests what hedge bets can be placed to mitigate that risk at current exchange prices. They then place the hedge bets to manage the risk. They place the bets using the same software as everyone else using the site and respecting any in-play delays. The line about &#8216-opportunities in-play&#8217- refers to the match situation and is nothing to do with beating the delay.

For example, when just about every favourite won their international Euro 2008 qualifiers in early June last year (known as &#8216-Black Wednesday&#8217- in some quarters), Moldova scored late-ish against Greece to square the match. The multiples team heavily laid the draw as the match drew to a close as it was a much better potential result than a Greek win. That meant that when Greece did score with the last kick of the game, our losses were mitigated to some extent by the hedge bets placed in-running.

The multiples product is run under Betfair&#8217-s Maltese bookmaking license and is regulated by the LGA there. Therefore the team has to be based in Malta. The operation is an arms-length operation &#8211- there is no special access to any functionality or data from the exchange.

Loki Lab Rat:

frog2, It is best I leave questions on cross matching for the Q &amp- A. I am not really that close to the project. I just thought I would answer the one on the multiples team to prevent any speculation getting out of hand.

Rab Bibater in a comment on Midas Oracle:

It is also pertinent that this team operates under Maltese jurisdiction- which of course puts it outside the scrutiny of the UK’s Gambling Commission!

However, I think there is also another issue that needs to be explored, and that is the general efficacy of a policy that allows Betfair’s own employees to trade on their exchange. Many people within Betfair have access to historical trading data unavailable to the broader betting public- such as what stables are backed and when- the significance of early money for particular horses etc- some are also able to access the betting records of individual persons. I specifically remember a comment made on Betfair radio concerning the boys in the office and how they had mopped up all the value regarding a particular horse from a gambling yard. The problem for Betfair, and one that is not likely to go away, is that nobody is sure any longer as to who it is they are actually trading against.

BetFair will answer some of Ed Murrays questions on Wednesday evening, March 19, 2008, between 6pm and 7pm (UK Time).

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Forum Q&amp-A Session

Betfair Customer Services 17 Mar 11:21

As announced last week we’ll be hosting a Q&amp-A session on the forum this Wednesday evening (19th March) between 6pm and 7pm (UK Time). The purpose of this Q&amp-A session is to answer questions regarding Betfair’s new bet matching logic. To help us get through as many questions as possible you can send them in advance to [email protected]. Unfortunately it is not possible for us to respond to each email individually but we will attempt to answer all questions raised via the live Q&amp-A session.

We realise that customers would appreciate the chance to have questions answered on other topics too, but we want to focus this initial session on just the new bet matching logic to ensure that we answer as many questions as possible. For those customers who have questions for Betfair that aren’t related to this topic we’ll be reintroducing regular forum Q&amp-A sessions over the coming weeks. We’ll post more information about those sessions nearer the time.

We hope you find this session helpful and informative.

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  • Robin Hanson wants to rule the world —just as CEOs and heads of states do for a living.
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  • BetFair Australia fought for free trade across Australian state boundaries… and won.

BetFair changes the logic of its bet matching.

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Starting Prices aside, trading at BetFair becomes a little more complicated.

BetFair:

Changes to Betfair&#8217-s bet matching logic

Betfair Customer Services 11 Mar 17:32

Betfair is trialling an improved bet matching process. This work is ongoing and will affect a limited but growing number of markets, although horse racing markets are at present not affected. As there has been speculation about what this change involves we wanted to explain what is happening.

Previously we would only attempt to match customer bet requests against unmatched bets of the opposing bet type (backs vs. lays) on the same runner in the same market. That part of the bet matching process remains unchanged. Where there is no opposing bet to match on the same selection, rather than just leaving a customer&#8217-s bet request unmatched, we will now attempt to match the bet request against unmatched bets on other runners.

For example in addition to matching back bets against lay bets we can from time to time match customer back bet requests across all selections, or customer lay bet requests across all selections. The effect of this change is that customer bet requests will stand a greater chance of being matched.

There will be circumstances where a customer bet request could be matched by either process. In this case priority will always be given to matching in the traditional way, back vs. lay, and the process for matching those bets is identical to the way this was done previously. Where a market is turned in-play and bets are subject to an in-play delay this also remains unaltered. Bets will only become available to be matched once the in-play delay has expired: backs vs. lays first followed by matching across selections where no other match was possible.

Previously if a customer requested a bet that we could not match against an opposing bet (back vs. lay) then that bet could only be matched at the price requested. Because we have not changed the existing matching process of back bets vs. lay bets that remains the case, although we expect to introduce price improvement where possible across selections too in future.

For customers with questions on how this change will affect them we will run a Q&amp-A session on the forum [*] at a date to be announced shortly.

[*] Quite needed.

Why the BetFair blog shoud move from MovableType to WordPress – Edition #3,961

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Matt Mullenweg has a post out comparing the 2 platforms and touting WordPress.

[&#8230-] WordPress is 100% open source, GPL. All plugins in the official directory are GPL or compatible, 100% open source. [&#8230-] WordPress MU is 100% open source, GPL, and if you wanted you could take it and build your own hosted platform like WordPress.com, like edublogs.org has with over 100,000 blogs. [&#8230-]

I have read with fascination all the comments there, on the original MT blog post, and else. I have spotted many webmasters explaining why and how they moved from MovableType to WordPress &#8212-but I have spotted none explaining why and how they moved from WordPress to MovableType.

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

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  • Based on the analysis of some 600,000 official Iraqi documents seized by US forces after the invasion and thousands of hours of interrogations of former officials in Saddam’s government now in US custody, there is no evidence Saddam Hussein had ties to Al Qaeda.
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Meet bettor/trader Harry Findlay.

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Harry Findlay

&#8220-Nowadays, some casinos even have two zeroes on the roulette wheel. Anyone playing them should be certified. But gambling on a Champions League match, a Premier League match, you can win.&#8221- This, he explains, is because modern betting exchanges take a far lower proportion of their punters&#8217- stakes in profit. &#8220-There is no margin, it&#8217-s about 2 per cent.&#8221-

&#8220-If I were leaving school now, the chances of ending up behind bars are the same as me skiing for Britain in the London Olympics. It only happened because of all the lies and kidology that used to go on with betting. Nobody can get [bets] on with bookmakers, because when you win you get closed down. Now it&#8217-s all up front. We&#8217-re now living in the real world. Press that button on Betfair and let&#8217-s see how good you are. Simple. There&#8217-s no myths or lies any more, it&#8217-s all fact.&#8221-

He also believes that direct, accountable trading via the internet betting exchanges is taking the carpet up on the cheats, and he colourfully repaints some of the turf&#8217-s most honoured names as arrant frauds. &#8220-At the end of the day, it don&#8217-t matter how big your house is,&#8221- he says. &#8220-Nurses and teachers working for nothing, they&#8217-re the real legends. If you cheat, what kind of buzz is there, conning all that lot?&#8221-

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  • The information technology that caught Eliot Spitzer
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How InTrade-TradeSports and BetFair-TradeFair should reach out

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Fred Wilson (a famous NY-based venture capitalist, a &#8220-VC&#8221-):

Really think about if you need that $15,000 a month PR firm. – There are some really good PR firms out there and if you can get one of them to work with your company, then it may be worth considering it. But a mediocre PR firm is not worth it for sure. I encourage our portfolio companies to hire a person inside the company to be an &#8220-evangelist&#8221-. That job includes blogging actively, reading and commenting and linking to other blogs, reaching out to the media and industry analysts and gurus, going to conferences and events, and generally getting the word out. That person can be young and not particularly expensive, certainly nowhere near $15,000 a month. And they have two things that a PR firm cannot offer. They work for you and they represent your company exclusively.

Exactly.

As of today, the BetFair blogging is appalling and works in reverse. The BetFair blog is a digital cockroach that repels the prediction market aficionados. Over the time, the BetFair blog will generate bad publicity for BetFair-TradeFair.

As for InTrade-TradeSports, their little &#8220-bulletin&#8221- is totally uninteresting. It&#8217-s not awful, but it&#8217-s not clever either. It&#8217-s money wasted.

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  • Collective Prediction – Combining human and machine intelligence in prediction economies
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  • Uh oh.
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The Sporting Exchange, owner of BetFair and TradeFair, is being considered for inclusion in the 2008 list of The Worlds Most Valuable Digital Startups.

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Wow. :-D

[I left a comment, there. Oh, and I see that WeatherBill made the list, too. :-D ]

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Is Justin Wolfers a libertarian? Probably not.
  • The information technology that caught Eliot Spitzer
  • Eric Zitzewitz’s 10 minutes of fame
  • Fun with conditional probabilities
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  • an American, petite, very pretty brunette, 5 feet 5 inches, and 105 pounds
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With 45,000 registered Irish customers, BetFair-TradeFair (not TradeSports-InTrade) is the dominant prediction exchange in Ireland.

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Link.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Prediction Markets
  • Meet professor Justin Wolfers.
  • Become “friend” with me on Google E-Mail so as to share feed items with me within Google Reader.
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  • Modern Life
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BetFair on Nine OClock News 2007-10-10

No GravatarYouTube video

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

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