Has BetFair a little part of responsibility in the collapse of the Kieren Fallon trial (which cost British taxpayers ?950,000)?

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BetFair actively report betting that appears to them out of the ordinary. And, if any sport regulator has concerns, then BetFair provide them with additional information. BetFair, of course, has no say in whether a criminal offense has been committed, and no input into the prosecution (the Crown Prosecution Service).

In the Fallon case (an Irish jockey suspected of collusion with some bettors), the British police investigated the incidents. BetFair provided testimony. But the British justice decided that mister Fallon shouldn&#8217-t be convicted.

This week, the British police aired an internal report about why they lost the case &#8212-their fault, they write. I won&#8217-t analyze the full case on Midas Oracle, but I just want to touch 2 things:

  1. The Times (of London) says that &#8220-any prosecution based on race-reading, that is proving a motive by [analyzing] a jockey&#8217-s ride, is doomed because it is open to so many interpretations.&#8221-
  2. The British Police &#8220-had an inadequate understanding of the nature of online betting exchanges and the process of laying a horse to lose, the mechanism by which the defendants were alleged to have attempted to profit from fixed races.&#8221-

This second point was very clear during the trial, and the media reported, at the time, that BetFair didn&#8217-t do a good job in making sure that the Police would understand all the facts and mechanisms involved. Below are the media excerpts that make that case.

The Guardian:

[…] [Acting detective inspector Mark Manning] began his investigation by visiting the offices of Betfair, the company through which the bets involved in the case were made. He was told that Fallon&#8217-s fellow defendant Miles Rodgers had risked a total of ?2m, but Manning misunderstood and left with the belief that Rodgers had made a net profit of that amount. By the time the trial opened more than three years later, it had become clear that Rodgers had made a net loss of over ?250,000 on the races concerned. […]

The Guardian:

[…] In part, the fault is Betfair&#8217-s, for failing to ensure that police investigators understood the meaning of the complex evidence they provided, and for passing pages of irrelevant data to the Crown that provided one of many early embarrassments for the prosecution. […]

The senior detective in charge of the investigation, Mark Manning, had met [Betfair lawyer David O’Reilly] at Betfair&#8217-s offices earlier that year [in 2004]. Manning left with a fundamental misunderstandingthat Rodgers had made a net profit of ?2m from his betting activities, when in fact this was the total amount that had been risked. By the time the trial began, it had become clear that the accounts controlled by Rodgers had in fact made a net loss of more than ?250,000 on the 27 races investigated.

Betfair provided more than 300 pages of data in evidence, showing the betting activities of Rodgers&#8217- accounts on these 27 races. O&#8217-Reilly, the first witness called, claimed in court that this data showed how Rodgers would take bets on certain horses at much bigger odds than were being offered by anyone else. Under cross-examination, however, O&#8217-Reilly was led to the realisation that the Betfair data for eight of the 27 races included details of bets made after the race had started, at which point larger odds could be justified by mid-race developments. Observers were shocked that Betfair could have made such a blunder in handling its own data.

The father of one of the accused (and now cleared) jockey:

The man from Betfair admitted at the start of the trial he had misled police as to the amounts that had been gambled and then they brought in an expert witness from Australia [Ray Murrihy, Racing NSW’s chief steward] who doesn&#8217-t know how things work here [in the U.K.].

Daily Mail:

The case highlighted the difficulty of proving, forensically and legally, that a jockey has tried and succeeded in stopping a horse from winning.

BBC News:

[…] At the end of the day, serious questions will be asked of both City of London Police and the Crown Prosecution Service as to why they agreed to proceed with a case that was so flawed and had little chance of success.

Reverse engineering of a nasty BetFair rumor that made rounds on Midas Oracle and elsewhere

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  1. The Sporting Exchange (BetFair-TradeFair) is a gaming company that operates on many countries.
  2. It would happen, occasionally, that one country&#8217-s laws would allow fixed-odds bookmakers &#8212-but not betting exchanges.
  3. BetFair would still want to operate in that country &#8211-as a bookmaker, not as a prediction exchange&#8211- to have its name out there &#8212-with the long-term goal of reverting it to a full exchange, once the laws will have been modified, later on, in the future.
  4. To do so, in the summer of 2007, BetFair began to hire people to provide prices and manage risk for that Internet sportsbook. That sportsbook has no connection whatsoever with the UK betting exchange.
  5. One un-hired job candidate told everyone who would listen that BetFair was preparing to do some hidden market-making on their betting exchange &#8212-hiring a &#8220-team of traders&#8221-.
  6. BetFair wouldn&#8217-t deny those allegations, out of fear of hinting its competitors.
  7. The sportbook, which was at the origin of that market-making rumor, is BetFair Italy &#8212-which has opened shop recently.

BetFair Malta and Jadestone output yet another simplistic prediction game: TaiKai.

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BetFair TaiKai

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets
  • Science
  • Why did prediction markets do well in the pre-polling era, professor Strumpf?
  • Mozilla FireFox users, do you have trouble downloading academic papers (as PDF files) from SSRN?
  • “Impact Matrix. Used to collect and gauge the likelihood and business impact of various events in the very long term.”
  • Ends and Means of Prediction Markets — Tom W. Bell Edition
  • How to run enterprise prediction markets… legally

FINALLY, THE PREDICTION MARKETS ARRIVE IN GREAT BRITAIN.

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The image above is static &#8212-it&#8217-s a screen shot of the chart widget, not the chart widget itself. (I haven&#8217-t had access to their code, see, so I am not able to embed it here for you.) To view their updated widget, right-click on the image above, and open the link into a new browser tab.

  1. First time I see a big UK newspaper associates &#8220-BetFair&#8221- with the term &#8220-prediction markets&#8221-.
  2. Their explainer is quite acceptable.
  3. That is a great step for BetFair. Congrats.
  4. I&#8217-d explain things differently &#8212-and I dislike that they suggest that the prediction markets can greatly outperform the polls, described as not &#8220-accurate enough&#8221-. Pollsters do the best they can, it seems to me.
  5. The output that BetFair hands out and the journalists seek are probabilities (expressed in percentages) &#8212-not those damn decimal/digital odds.
  6. The chart widget they use is crappy. I already discussed it. It has usability problems with FireFox. It does not go into feeds. And it&#8217-s not readable enough. Look at the alternative, just below. (The only reason those idiots of journalists are using that crappy widget is that BetFair customized it for them, by putting their fucking newspaper trademark on top of the widget.)
  7. Anyway, the dead-tree, print newspapers are dying, and the future belongs to blog networks. :-D

The chart below is better&#8230- more readable&#8230- and it goes into feeds&#8230- – But those idiots at the Telegraph won&#8217-t show it to you because it is not pinned with the &#8220-Telegraph&#8221- trademark.

Please, BetFair, do give us the possibility to have a wider time period for the chart data.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • A second look at HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets”
  • Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
  • US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
  • If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
  • THE CFTC’s SECRET AGENDA —UNVEILED.
  • “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
  • Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.

BetFair Malta outputs a simplistic prediction game (about the 2008 European soccer tournament). Im not impressed at all.

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  1. Simplistic enough. Sounds more like a promotion trick than a real game.
  2. The Sporting Exchange has outsourced the development of this game (and others) to a Swedish team.
  3. The Swedish people won a &#8220-multi-year&#8221- contract. I don&#8217-t understand which partner is responsible for the creation of future games. Probably both, but it&#8217-s not clear. To get new game ideas, I would rather bid for them around the planet (just like book publishers and movie producers are looking out for good scripts) &#8212-as opposed to have a &#8220-multi-year&#8221- contract with someone, even a talented someone. (And in the case under my very nose, I can&#8217-t see any talent, here.)
  4. In both Internet Explorer and Mozilla FireFox, there are usability problems, as you can see in the screen shot. This BetFair site (just like their corporate site) was not designed to be fluid. A shame.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Become “friend” with me on Google E-Mail so as to share feed items with me within Google Reader.
  • Nigel Eccles’ flawed “vision” about HubDub shows that he hasn’t any.
  • How does InTrade deal with insider trading?
  • Modern Life
  • “The Beacon” is an excellent blog published by The Independent Institute.
  • The John Edwards Non-Affair… is making Memeorandum (twice), again.
  • Prediction Markets = marketplaces for information trading… and for separating the wheat from the chaff.

75,000 people turned out to hear Barack Obama at Waterfront Park, Portland, Oregon, U.S.A.

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Record Obama Crowd, the Size of a City

Oregon&#8217-s Democratic Primary

InTrade

Price for Oregon Democratic Primary. May 20th at intrade.com

BetFair

Kentucky&#8217-s Democratic Primary

InTrade

Price for Kentucky Democratic Primary. May 20th at intrade.com

BetFair

NewsFutures

Some delegates from FL or MI will be seated at the Democratic Convention.

© NewsFutures

First look at individual states for the 2008 US presidential elections

2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

Price for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) at intrade.com

2008 US Presidential Elections

Source: Dynamic, compound prediction market charts from InTrade

Next US President

Next US President

Winning Party

Winning Party

Female President?

Female President?

Democratic Candidate

Democratic Candidate

Republican Candidate

Republican Candidate

Source: BetFair Politics Zone

Barack Obama to win the Democratic nomination


© NewsFutures

Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic nomination


© NewsFutures

Next US President Will Be Democratic.


© NewsFutures

Next US President Will Be Republican.


© NewsFutures

Explainer On Prediction Markets

Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out&#8230- Intelligence in, intelligence out&#8230-

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

More Info:

– The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

– Prediction Market Science

– The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

– All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

The BetFair-Fallon debacle cost British taxpayers ?950,000.

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Jesus.

Thank God I don&#8217-t pay my taxes in the UK. I&#8217-d be furious at BetFair and at the British Police.

NEXT: Has BetFair a little part of responsibility in the collapse of the Kieren Fallon trial?

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • A second look at HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets”
  • Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
  • US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
  • If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
  • THE CFTC’s SECRET AGENDA —UNVEILED.
  • “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
  • Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.

The UKs Gambling Commission is after BetFair and Betdaq for in-running (in-play) betting.

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– Do you have any information about the customer profile in the in-running betting market (ie is it made up predominantly of specialist, knowledgeable betting customers)? &#8230- sources of information and time delays- availability of high-speed broadband- computer software packages that are specifically designed to assist in-running betting customers (known as ‘bots’).
– Do betting customers with traditional bookmakers and betting exchanges also take part in spread betting and is it a direct competitor to in-running betting?

UK&#8217-s Gambling Commission – PDF file

Via Adonis

UPDATE: IN-PLAY BETTING: BetFair is already compliant with the Gambling Commission&#8217-s first pointer.

Why I dont believe in VP prediction markets

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Because the decision to select a running mate is a decision made in secrecy, with many (personal or else) factors we are not aware of, and many things we are not fully informed about. Barack Obama and John McCain&#8217-s minds are not that open &#8212-whatever you can read in the Press from the so-called campaign insiders. That&#8217-s the typical kind of prediction markets that traders and probability seekers should not approach.

So, I won&#8217-t cover InTrade and BetFair&#8217-s VP prediction markets, here.

STRAIGHT FROM OUR U-TURN DEPARTMENT: Here are the VP prediction markets -all of them.

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Don&#8217-t you love the Web? Within 15 minutes after my posting my absolute and definitive refusal to publish any bits about the VP prediction markets, I received a long rebuttal by Google&#8217-s Bo Cowgill &#8212-whose great prediction market paper is still for you to download (PDF file), by the way.

Okay, Okay, Okay.


InTrade

Democratic Vice President Nominee

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Republican Vice President Nominee

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

BetFair

Next Vice President:

Democratic Vice President Nominee

Republican Vice President Nominee

NewsFutures

Barack Obama will pick a woman as running mate.

© NewsFutures


Explainer On Prediction Markets

Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out&#8230- Intelligence in, intelligence out&#8230-

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.