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Dont trade on the VP predictions markets. – Dont bet on Hillary Clinton as VP. – Dont listen to betting bloggers who tell you that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket. – Dont believe in vice presidential selection committees. – Select well your primary, advanced indicators. –

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The topic of this post is: Betting &amp- Information – – #1. Don&#8217-t trade on the VP predictions markets. I have stong reservations about those VP prediction markets. Only 2 men in the world know what is going to happen: … Continue reading →

JASON RUSPINIS CROCKERY: The Brain states forcefully that they are not event futures, but binary options. Still, as soon as he premieres prediction markets on tax rates at InTrade, he calls them tax futures -of course.

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– Measured Enthusiasm for Prediction Markets – (PDF file) – by Jason Ruspini. – My thoughts: Peter McCluskey thinks they are &#8220-futures&#8221-. PAM was only extremely marginally about &#8220-terrorism and assassination futures&#8221-. Even though they don&#8217-t do much more than … Continue reading →

75,000 people turned out to hear Barack Obama at Waterfront Park, Portland, Oregon, U.S.A.

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– Oregon&#8217-s Democratic Primary – InTrade – BetFair – Kentucky&#8217-s Democratic Primary – InTrade – BetFair – NewsFutures Some delegates from FL or MI will be seated at the Democratic Convention.© NewsFutures – First look at individual states for the … Continue reading →

Barack Obama will finish off Hillary Clinton by June 15.

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– Lawrence O&#8217-Donnell (a leftist journalist &#8211-but a good one, whom I appreciate): A senior campaign official and Clinton confidante has told me that there will be a Democratic nominee by June 15. […] Yes, Clinton spokespersons publicly seem to … Continue reading →

I try to only follow electoral races in highly digested form -that is, thru the lens of the political prediction markets.

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Excellent formulation by Mike Linksvayer. Tells a lot about the usage of the prediction market probablities, and how we should market them to people. BetFair, InTrade and TradeSports, are you listening? I check prices at Intrade most days, which gives … Continue reading →

Great WordPress Plugin Of The Day

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– Cross-Linker by Jan Hvizdak Write the words InTrade or BetFair in your post, and the plugin will automatically add the appropriate web links. Of course, the plugin won&#8217-t mess with your already, manually embedded links. Generally speaking, it won&#8217-t … Continue reading →

If the British legal betting companies offer bets on the sport, it is because there is demand for bets on the sport -and if that demand were not offered in a regulated environment, it would be filled in an unregulated one (like what we see with TradeSports-InTrade and MatchBook in the US market).

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Mark Davies of BetFair (PDF file): International Leaders in Sport conference, Auckland, New Zealand. April 3-4th 2008.Keynote speech, April 4th. Mark Davies, Betfair. “New Understandings in Sports Betting” Minister, ladies and gentlemen&#8230- Thank you very much for your kind invitation … Continue reading →

Ill make a $500 donation to the first think thank that makes an interesting, non-bogus use of real-money prediction markets before the end of 2007. Ill be the judge of bogosity and interestingness, but I can say that a paper about prediction markets counts as uninteresting.

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Mike, My Good Lord, Would prediction market journalism (that is, showing to the normal people on the street that prediction markets can help understand better baseball games, or whatever else, on top of being fun and pure) fit your criteria … Continue reading →