Via our usual suspect Mike Linksvayer (recently featured in the New York Times for his weird diet), David Schneider-Joseph (a Foresight Exchange fanboy) on how to measure real electability of the US presidential candidates. Go reading his reasoning. His conclusion: … Continue reading
My answer to him/her: Don’-t give the first fig about the prediction market industry. Go working at an exchange, preferably in Chicago, and learn everything you can about markets. In 10 years, all the Chicago exchanges will float event derivatives. … Continue reading
The breaking news is that Professor Justin Wolfers (of the Wharton business school in Philadelphia) has responded to my unforeseeable attack and to the subsequent Mike Linksvayer’-s comment. A quick response to Chris:Let me clarify what I think the key … Continue reading
How Much Do Election Shakeups Affect the Nation’-s Economy? – [US politics &- financial markets] – by Justin Wolfers and Mark Thoma – 2006-11-03 [Justin Wolfers] And the major puzzle that I currently see? The past two years have clearly … Continue reading
Two days ago, I stated brashly that political prediction markets aggregate the polls, mainly. (Mike Linksvayer nuanced my propos, in the comment area.) GOP Keeps Senate, Loses House, Betting Site Says. – [US political prediction markets] – by Ronald Kessler … Continue reading
