Robin Hanson in a comment on Marginal Revolution: This is important work for organizational sociology, but not for prediction markets, as this does little to help us find and field high value markets. Finally, somebody who speaks the truth. See … Continue reading
Justin Wolfers: So we decided to move beyond asking, “Do prediction markets work?” and instead use them as a tool for better understanding how information flows within a (very cool) corporation. I am more interested in the accuracy of the … Continue reading
Ron Paul on CNN – YouTube video Our good friend Mike Linksvayer is so wrong, politically, once again. —- Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse: Bzzzzzzzzz… Bzzzzzzzzz… “No offense, but I think Radley Balko is the most … Continue reading
After the New Hampshire fiasco, 16 18 people came to defend the prediction markets, so far. So far, the best takes are from: George Tziralis Robin Hanson Jonathan Kennedy and I’-ll give the 4th spot to a combo, mixing takes … Continue reading
Search engine expert Barry Schwartz: […-] Why does Google encourage such activity from their employees? […-] It also helps stimulate an “-optimism bias,”- which in turn encourages Google employees to work harder to achieve a certain outcome they have predicted … Continue reading
Justin Wolfers in the Wall Street Journal: […] Through this process of different people trading based on their own observations about the race, prediction markets prices come to aggregate disparate pieces of information into a single summary measure of the … Continue reading
David Pennock, the Yahoo! research scientist, in April 2007: One of the great things about InTrade (recently split from TradeSports) is that they are open to suggestions from wide-eyed academics. […-] Exactly. Previously: The London School of Economics chose InTrade-TradeSports … Continue reading
InTrade has just opened (and not publicized yet on their site feed) a set of global warming prediction markets —-more exactly, event derivative markets on whether the world’-s biggest national governments will soon agree to reduce CO2 emissions under the … Continue reading
The New York Times: Carol Kauffman, an assistant clinical professor at Harvard Medical School: “-When you’re really engaged in a hobby you love, you lose your sense of time and enter what’s called a flow state, and that restores your … Continue reading
Betfair has launched a series of innovative betting markets which will provide clear indications of how public opinion views the on-going debate about climate change, by allowing people to speculate on climate indices developed to track the extent (or otherwise) … Continue reading
