Think tanks that talk about prediction markets should walk the walk, as should institutions that laud the rigors of the market generally.

Dixit Mike linksvayer, last year. Once again, Mike Linksvayer is right on target. This guy is incredibly pertinent. Mike is one of my best sources of inspiration. Thanks to his two posts linked above, I&#8217-ll refine an idea of mine … Continue reading

Speculating on event derivative markets is not investing.

Ultra pertinent remark from the Club For Growth blogger: [The New York Post video] is an informative video, but I want to quibble about two things. I view the term &#8220-investing&#8221- as the act of buying an asset with the … Continue reading

DAYS OF RECKONING: The New York Times is telling the business world that enterprise prediction markets are an essential management tool.

– Via forecasting expert Mat Fogarty of Xpree (cited but not linked to, alas, in that story), the New York Times (2 pages): “The potential is that prediction markets may be the thing that enables a big company to act … Continue reading

Thanks to enterprise prediction markets, senior management can move faster to deal with problems or exploit opportunities.

Photo Credit: AFP – Previously: The New York Times is telling the business world that enterprise prediction markets are an essential management tool. [Via Xpree] Previously: Do Google’s enterprise prediction markets work? – Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse: … Continue reading

Do BetFair understand the statistical concept of expectation?

Graham &#8220-Sharp&#8221- Minds: [&#8230-] When I was interviewed by BetFair and they explained to me all of the problems with the multiples operation, most importantly the fact that it is a loss making despite the huge overrounds, I was asked … Continue reading