The stock market is stochastic.
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History of BetFair, from the concept to the startup -in Andrew Black and Edward Wrays own words
I already linked to it, but you should re-read the 2008 TIME interview of BetFair’-s two founders.
Awesome literature, if you are an entrepreneur.
Take 10 minutes today to read that.
BRITISH CRETINERY: The Financial Times features the InTrade probabilities -not the BetFair ones.
This is really stupid. The decerebrated journalos at the FT chose to feature the illiquid, Ireland-based, un-regulated InTrade prediction markets instead of the very liquid, UK-based, regulated BetFair prediction markets on the next British congress.
Makes no sense at all.
The BetFair PR boys have an omelet on their face. They should work harder.
DISAMBIGUATION: The “-illiquid”- adjective refers to the UK political markets on InTrade —-not the US political prediction markets.
OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]
IT IS NOW BACK TO ABOVE $60.
See Jason Ruspini’-s comment. UPDATE: Carlos Graterol. Joe Weisenthal. Gawker. Max Keiser.
ADDENDUM
More info on health care reform on Memeorandum and Politico.
BetFair App for the iPhone and the iPad -> BetFair Rattle
As I understand it, BetFair has one iPhone App for the British bettors (only).
And they’-ve just released a new one (BetFair Rattle), also only for the UK Apple App Store.
BetFair:
BETFAIR LAUNCHES FREE IPHONE APP FOR FOOTBALL FANS
BETFAIR, the world’-s biggest online sports betting company, has released a nifty new application for football fans to compete against each other in order to make their club the most supported on the iPhone.
The ‘-app-tly’- named Betfair Rattle provides a quick and easy interface for fans to check fixtures and then turn their phone into a rattle with which to back their side. Support for a particular team increases according to how much fans shake their phones before the match kicks-off.
In time, Betfair hopes to release a Betfair Rattle league table, so if you’-re sitting bottom of the Premier League and have lost 10 in a row your team can still get three points at the weekend if you get your rattle out. For instance, Portsmouth fans will be glad to know they got three points at Anfield last night, even if they don’-t have the bragging rights in real life.
Betfair’-s Mobile Manager Richard Hewitt said: “-First and foremost we wanted to create something where fans compete against each other to show support for their teams, but we also wanted to provide something that was genuinely useful by making sure it was the most simple way of checking upcoming fixtures on the iPhone.
“-So many apps are slow and clunky when all a user wants is the information there and then, and that’-s what this app provides.
“-Above all else though, it’-s a bit of fun and we hope football fans across the country will be seen shaking their iPhones at stadiums around the country come 2:55pm every Saturday.”-
To download the app go to:
http://itunes.apple.com/gb/app/betfair-rattle/id360162909?mt=8
Bookmaker laying a la BetFair
At Ladbrokes, you can now bet on an anti event —-so to speak.
Via Mark Davies —-who rejoices.
InTrade should address this incident and suspend the account of whoever did this.
We interrupt this report to bring you some Jazz.
Herbie Hancock –- Cantelope Island
Herbie Hancock –- Watermelon Man
CrowdCast + SAP
What has been the best InTrade prediction market ever? Has the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade been ahead of the commentary?
Jason Ruspini (who feels that the health care reform proposal might well be adopted) wanna feedback from you, folks.
- Which InTrade prediction market(s) has/have been ahead of the Press (rather than the other way around)? What is/are the best (most divergent from the commentary, and correct) InTrade prediction market(s) in people’-s memories?
- Do you sense that the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade fits these 2 criteria?
UPDATE: I asked The Brain whether he meant generalist media or political media, and he meant “-generalist”-. That makes all the difference in the world.
ADDENDUM
More info on health care reform on Memeorandum.
Previously: Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform?