Category Archives: Resources

Topic: prediction markets – MyBlogLog

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No GravatarTopic: &#8220-prediction markets&#8221- – MyBlogLog

I&#8217-ll monitor that webpage. I&#8217-ll tell you if it happens to be useful.

TECHNICAL PROBLEM: My feed reader says that &#8220-http://www.mybloglog.com/buzz/topics/predictionmarkets/rss.xml&#8221- is an empty feed!!!!

Via the OddHead man.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • How Decision Markets Work (with emphasis on InTrade) – by Robin Hanson
  • MIDAS ORACLE POWER: People googling about BetFair’s new bet-matching logic are automatically directed to our group blog. BetFair’s SEO can return to the locker room.
  • David Pennock, a respected expert in prediction markets and market design, discusses some aspects of BetFair’s new bet-matching logic.
  • Inkling Markets has automated the making of the contractual agreement with its prospects. So, now, if you don’t want to, you can avoid talking to Adam “The Shark” Siegel.
  • Google’s Bo Cowgill @ 2008 DIG Conference

Who are the best researchers in the field of prediction markets?

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No GravatarI have just visited plenty of scholars&#8216- websites, and I noted that the 2 websites where I could download the most papers on prediction markets were:

– Robin Hanson

– Justin Wolfers

–

Many (otherwise smart and friendly) researchers in our field don&#8217-t understand how important it is to have a clean, comprehensive website, alas. Papers should be linked to and ready for download.

–

Young researcher to monitor: Richard Borghesi, who is deeply into TradeSports. Interesting person, whose work doesn&#8217-t get enough blog or media coverage, in my judgment.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Robin Hanson wants to rule the world —just as CEOs and heads of states do for a living.
  • Predictify got funded… Great for those who will be hired… But is it a good thing, overall?
  • Nassim Nicholas Taleb likens modern-day financial markets to medicine in the 1800s, when going to a hospital in London or Paris multiplied your risk of death by four times, he says. Similarly, quants increase risk by deploying flawed financial tools designed to reduce it, he argues.
  • TradeSports-InTrade — Check Deposits
  • BetFair Australia fought for free trade across Australian state boundaries… and won.

The Dumb Agents page on prediction markets

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No GravatarGood idea, but they should put the most liquid prediction markets (InTrade, for North-America issues) ahead of the others &#8212-and they should publish BetFair&#8217-s charts, too.

See Midas Oracle&#8217-s page on prediction markets.

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Jason Ruspini was an imprudent and cocky predictor, but, in the end, he is a honest man.
  • Polls Vs. Prediction Markets
  • Prediction exchanges let traders buy and sell contracts on the likelihood of future events. Contracts are structured so the prices can be read as a percent likelihood of an event occurring.
  • What Jed Christiansen did say about Predictify
  • Russell Andersson, Chief Operating Officer: Third Ave Beach
  • Based on the analysis of some 600,000 official Iraqi documents seized by US forces after the invasion and thousands of hours of interrogations of former officials in Saddam’s government now in US custody, there is no evidence Saddam Hussein had ties to Al Qaeda.
  • Robin Hanson is breaking the Internet.

Erratic -but not Stochastic- Charts

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IdeaBlog

Author Profile&nbsp-Editor and Publisher of Midas Oracle .ORG .NET .COM &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s mugshot &#8212- Contact Chris Masse &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s LinkedIn profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s FaceBook profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s Google profile &#8212- Sophia-Antipolis, France, E.U. Read more from this author&#8230-

Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • Once again, a BetFair spin doctor misunderstands the prediction market approach.
  • Grandizer
  • Tss… Tss… Surely, you are joking Doctor Giberson.
  • Comments are still open on Midas Oracle.
  • “I am much more aligned with InTrade than you are, Chris.”
  • And the award for the most technology advanced software vendor goes to… the envelope, please…. QMARKETS in Israel. … [Cheers and applauses in the crowd.]
  • Jason Ruspini’s Tax Rate Prediction Markets… are taking off.

Sports Derivative Forum

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No GravatarSports Derivative Forum – &#8220-Where sports fans and derivative investors come together&#8221-

I like the sub-title. It is now in the list of external web links.

By the way, thanks to all who have submitted link suggestions.

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • David Pennock’s European bosses have a screw loose.
  • The 2008 US presidential elections thru the lens of the Iowa Electronic Markets
  • BetFair changes the logic of its bet matching.
  • The U.S. has finally slid into recession, according to the majority of economists in the latest Wall Street Journal economic-forecasting survey.
  • The Dumb Agent’s page on prediction markets
  • What should Nigel Eccles do with HubDub’s cash
  • Why blogs on prediction markets are lively and interesting to read, while conferences on prediction markets are as dull as German sausages and suck like GoldFish.

Stuck at your computer? Watch MSNBC on Midas Oracle, straight from your desk.

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Well&#8230- if the embedded video works fine. (If not, go to the site, and click on &#8220-MSNBC live feed&#8221-.)

MSNBC

Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • Five reasons Hillary Clinton should be worried
  • TURNING POINT: BARACK OBAMA EVENT DERIVATIVE NOW AHEAD
  • The Best External Web Links On Prediction Markets And On Everything Else
  • The InTrade webmaster is a moron.
  • The Economist rebuts Paul Krugman.
  • The US futures exchanges should not control clearing.
  • Billionaire Stephen Schwarzman: “I don’t feel like a wealthy person.”

Guess who is going to blog…

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Carl Icahn

Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • Five reasons Hillary Clinton should be worried
  • TURNING POINT: BARACK OBAMA EVENT DERIVATIVE NOW AHEAD
  • The Best External Web Links On Prediction Markets And On Everything Else
  • The InTrade webmaster is a moron.
  • The Economist rebuts Paul Krugman.
  • The US futures exchanges should not control clearing.
  • Billionaire Stephen Schwarzman: “I don’t feel like a wealthy person.”

In the blogosphere, everything is immediate. The deadline is now.

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No GravatarWith all due respect, I totally disagree with Tyler Cowen (of Marginal Revolution fame). Here are some outstanding blogs and sites that are seldom prompted by immediacy:

  1. Alea – (finance)
  2. Endless Innovation –
  3. Read &amp- Write Web – (information technology)
  4. Guy Kawasaki – (marketing)
  5. Technology Review –
  6. Tierney Lab – (applied science)
  7. The Numbers Guy –
  8. Add your suggestion(s) in the comment area, just below. :-D

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Bzzzzzzzzz…
  • Bzzzzzzzzz…
  • “No offense, but I think Radley Balko is the most valuable blogger in America right now.”
  • Are you a better predictor than John McCain?
  • What does climate scientist James Annan think of InTrade’s global warming prediction markets?
  • Inkling Markets, one year later
  • One trader’s view on BetFair’s new bet-matching logic

Freakonomics listens to Chris Masse.

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No GravatarFollowing our Freakonomics blogroll suggestion, NewsFutures has been added. And they are plugging PopSci PPX on their frontpage, this Saturday.

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NewsFutures on the Freakonomics blogroll

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PPX at Freakonomics

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Happy Face

&#8212-

Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Terrorism Futures
  • InTrade-TradeSports and BetFair-TradeFair should take a close look at Cantor Fitzgerald’s strategy to gain a share of the $100 billion U.S. gambling industry.
  • The secrecy-seeking Mark Davies is solely to blame for all this mess… but this vibrating BetFair spin doctor has managed to repair the PR damages quite brillantly, it shall be said.
  • A Betting Exchange = A Bookmaker —> !??
  • BetFair’s new bet matching logic + BetFair Malta’s trading on the multiples
  • Dick Cheney, the new Churchill?
  • BetFair Malta’s combo market maker (trading algorithm + human market makers) operating on the multiples