Category Archives: Finance

Did Jason Ruspini and friends cash in on huge moves in prices of oil, natural gas, coal and other parts of the energy patch, this semester?

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Wall Street Journal $$$:

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The marketing association between BetFair and TOTE Tasmania works better than expected.
  • The term “event markets” sucks —and the uncritical thinkers using this crappy term suck too.
  • CLIMBING HIS WAY TO THE TOP: Erik Snowberg is now Assistant Professor of Economics and Political Science at California Institute of Technology.
  • Unlike other countries, the United States of America defends the freedom to offend in speech.
  • The best research papers on prediction markets
  • 2008 Electoral Map
  • American Enterprise Institute’s Center For Regulatory And Market Studies (Policy Markets)

When gambling meets Wall Street – Proposal for a brand-new kind of finance-based lottery

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No GravatarFolks, do watch this short (but non-embeddable) video.

Jason Ruspini or Michael Giberson, please provide some pointers, if you have time. Thanks.

UPDATE: See their brainy comments, just below.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • BetFair-TradeFair has won its second Queen’s Award for Enterprise in its eight-year history.
  • Inkling Markets is one of the “Hot Companies To Watch In 2008”, according to Forrester.
  • Plenty of great news coming from Inkling Markets in the coming weeks
  • ??? charity-driven prediction markets OR social issue prediction markets ???
  • That can’t be Nigel Eccles of HubDub.
  • The Marketing Of The Reading Of The Public Prediction Markets = What Robin Hanson has deep trouble with, and what the prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade-TradeSports, BetFair-TradeFair) haven’t fully computed yet
  • In 2013, Enterprise 2.0 will be a $4.6 billion industry. Good. But they forgot to mind the enterprise prediction markets.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb likens modern-day financial markets to medicine in the 1800s, when going to a hospital in London or Paris multiplied your risk of death by four times, he says. Similarly, quants increase risk by deploying flawed financial tools designed to reduce it, he argues.

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Via Stan Jonas, Nassim Nicholas Taleb cited in a Bloomberg article (Taleb Outsells Greenspan as Black Swan Gives Worst Turbulence):

Stress tests are inherently risky because they ignore rare but potentially devastating events. […] .. [“stress test” = Wall Street lingo for examining how a market rout will play out]

Past shortfall doesn&#8217-t predict future shortfall. […]

Bayesian is necessary but not sufficient. […]

If you are in banking and lending, surprise outcomes are likely to be negative for you. Put yourself in situations where favorable consequences are much larger than unfavorable ones. […]

Go to parties! If you&#8217-re a scientist, you will chance upon a remark that might spark new research. […]

Also, see Stan Jonas&#8217- 2 takes on FOMC.

We will never have a perfect model of risk. – by Alan Greenspan

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We will never have a perfect model of risk

The most credible explanation of why risk management based on state-of-the-art statistical models can perform so poorly is that the underlying data used to estimate a model’s structure are drawn generally from both periods of euphoria and periods of fear, that is, from regimes with importantly different dynamics.

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FOLLOW UP

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The information technology that caught Eliot Spitzer

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No GravatarEliot Spitzer

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • I get a kick each morning out of spying on the rich, famous, and powerful people updating their LinkedIn profile and connections. (Go to “InBox”, and click on “Network Updates”.)
  • ??? BetFair bet-matching logic ???
  • Eliot Spitzer has simply demonstrated once again that those who rise to the top of organizations are very often the most demented, conflicted individuals in any group.
  • Business Risks & Prediction Markets
  • Brand-new BetFair bet-matching logic proves to be very controversial with some event derivative traders.
  • Jimmy Wales accused of editing Wikipedia for donations.
  • What the prediction market experts said on Predictify

If Warren Buffett cant figure out derivatives, can anybody?

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The $300 Trillion Time Bomb

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The FaceBook profiles of the 2 most important men of the field of prediction markets
  • THE HUMAN GADFLY WHOSE OBJECTIONS ROBIN HANSON IS DUCKING…???…
  • Google now considers Midas Oracle as a major blog.
  • Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets
  • Join our group at LinkedIn to have your “Prediction Markets” badge on your profile. It’s ‘chic’. (“Groups” info should be set as “visible”, in your profile options.) We are 63 this early Saturday morning —keeps growing.
  • If you have been using PayPal to fund your InTrade, TradeSports or BetFair account, please, check that horror story.
  • 48 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 52 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).

WARREN BUFFETT: I said that the US dollar might be worth less in five to ten years -not that it might be worthless.

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No GravatarHilarious. Right-click on the image to open the link in another tab. Enjoy.

Dollar Buffett

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Eliot Spitzer has simply demonstrated once again that those who rise to the top of organizations are very often the most demented, conflicted individuals in any group.
  • Business Risks & Prediction Markets
  • Brand-new BetFair bet-matching logic proves to be very controversial with some event derivative traders.
  • Jimmy Wales accused of editing Wikipedia for donations.
  • What the prediction market experts said on Predictify
  • Are you a MSR addict like Mike Giberson? Have nothing to do this week-end? Wanna trade on a play-money prediction exchange instead of watching cable TV? Wanna win an i-Phone?
  • The secret Google document that Bo Cowgill doesn’t want you to see

Crisis Management Flowchart Tool

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Societe Generale

Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • When copies are free, you need to sell things that can not be copied.
  • BetFair Starting Price = Simplified Trading —just like MSR is, but without an AMM.
  • Predict Google’s market share (extracting early information from primary sources), and become rich —maybe (or maybe not).
  • Midas Oracle is the most popular blog network covering the prediction markets and the prediction market industry (and that includes BetFair-TradeFair, TradeSports-InTrade, Google, Consensus Point, Justin Wolfers, Robin Hanson, and the rest of the pack).
  • Hot-Linking InTrade’s Advanced Charts
  • Prediction Markets on FaceBook
  • BetFair SP = BetFair Starting Price