Here’-s the latest discussion.
The sudden dip in March 16s InTrade ObamaCare prediction market was an intentional coup.
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Category Archives: Exchanges Markets
Allegedly, an idiot pressed the wrong button on March 16s InTrade ObamaCare prediction market. Do you buy it?
Here’s the most likely scenario as to what happened here:
Somebody had a decent short position. Say they had about 65 shares (the volume bars indicate that this was likely a <- 100 share transaction, ie, <- $5 worth of commissions for Intrade, so mentioning commissions / greed as a motivator is pure ignorance). They wanted to put up a buy of 65 shares at say 5%, so that if the price ever dips that low, they can close their short position and wind up with a nice profit. And then, big mistake, they hit sell instead of buy. The market plummets. Mystery solved. It’-s called human error.
UK political prediction markets at Smarkets
The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care Reform
The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care Reform –- NYT –- by a former CBO director.
Required reading for Paul Hewitt. 
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ADDENDUM
More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate.
In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion -seven times more than the prediction.
BetFair App for the iPhone and the iPad -> BetFair Rattle
As I understand it, BetFair has one iPhone App for the British bettors (only).
And they’-ve just released a new one (BetFair Rattle), also only for the UK Apple App Store.
BetFair:
BETFAIR LAUNCHES FREE IPHONE APP FOR FOOTBALL FANS
BETFAIR, the world’-s biggest online sports betting company, has released a nifty new application for football fans to compete against each other in order to make their club the most supported on the iPhone.
The ‘-app-tly’- named Betfair Rattle provides a quick and easy interface for fans to check fixtures and then turn their phone into a rattle with which to back their side. Support for a particular team increases according to how much fans shake their phones before the match kicks-off.
In time, Betfair hopes to release a Betfair Rattle league table, so if you’-re sitting bottom of the Premier League and have lost 10 in a row your team can still get three points at the weekend if you get your rattle out. For instance, Portsmouth fans will be glad to know they got three points at Anfield last night, even if they don’-t have the bragging rights in real life.
Betfair’-s Mobile Manager Richard Hewitt said: “-First and foremost we wanted to create something where fans compete against each other to show support for their teams, but we also wanted to provide something that was genuinely useful by making sure it was the most simple way of checking upcoming fixtures on the iPhone.
“-So many apps are slow and clunky when all a user wants is the information there and then, and that’-s what this app provides.
“-Above all else though, it’-s a bit of fun and we hope football fans across the country will be seen shaking their iPhones at stadiums around the country come 2:55pm every Saturday.”-
To download the app go to:
http://itunes.apple.com/gb/app/betfair-rattle/id360162909?mt=8
OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]
IT IS NOW BACK TO ABOVE $60.
See Jason Ruspini’-s comment. UPDATE: Carlos Graterol. Joe Weisenthal. Gawker. Max Keiser.
ADDENDUM
More info on health care reform on Memeorandum and Politico.
Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps. -> September 24, 2010
Wall Street 2 @ HSX –-> Quite high flying.
The first trailer is hilarious:
About Wall Street 2:
Wall Street 1:
Frank Sinatra, “-Fly Me To The Moon”-:
In light of the upcoming bursting of the Cantor Exchange, Max Keiser have regrets about creating the Hollywood Stock Exchange.
Joe Weisenthal drinks the Kool-Aide
http://www.businessinsider.com/how-the-cantor-exchange-movie-trading-platform-works-2010-3
The CFTC really should be called to account for launching something like this – while the fire is still burning on the various CFTC approved products/contracts responsible for the last two years of economy collapse…
But here’s what I think. Since every media outlet in the world is going to cover this – and everybody who has every ‘dreamed of hollywood’ will be instantly addicted to all news coming out of this . . . the crisis of the last two years will be – like – forgotten (unless you happen to have become homeless or lost your job or house or something).
This is going to be a spectacular bubble and burst and I almost feel bad for having invented it.
PROVEN AND DOCUMENTED: Joe Weisenthal is drunken with his own manipulation paranoia.
Joe is going off the deep end. Market noises are now interpreted as the intergalactic battle between the pro-HCR and the anti-HCR, who are both seeking to manipulate the InTrade prediction markets. No evidence whatsoever is displayed.
P.S: I am not picking on Joe, who is a good web curator, and a nice chap. Just disagree with him (and Andrew Golberg) that prediction market journalism is easy to do. Good prediction market journalism is very hard to do. Requires scoops and pertinent analysis. Scrapping exchange probabilities and aggregating it with re-written news is not enough.
ADDENDUM
More info on health care reform on Memeorandum.
Previously: Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform?