The Smoking Gun
NYT – Affadavit
New York Times
NYT Op-Ed
Wall Street Journal
ABC News
Wall Street Journal
Wall Street Journal
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InTrade’-s Eliot Spitzer prediction markets
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Justin Wolfers:
If we judge politicians by what they buy, then Eliot Spitzer has clearly violated the public’s trust: he purchased the services of a high-priced prostitute, and may well end his political career as a result.
Other people think very differently.
More from Reason magazine.
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BetFair:
Betfair Robot on Exchange Games
Betfair Customer Services 13 Dec 16:51
From December 2007 Betfair has started employing its own software or “robots” to provide liquidity into the exchange games markets. It has been evident for some time that the activity of 3rd Party bots is essential to ensure that there is enough liquidity in the markets to provide an attractive customer proposition. For commercial reasons we have decided that rather than rely solely on 3rd party bots, Betfair will itself provide liquidity.Our robot has no advantages over any other in price terms. That is, if anyone (whether electronically or manually) offers a better price, the Betfair robot will not try to better that price- and we are not market-making on the back of being able to see what everyone else is doing. Customers will be equally likely to be matched by a 3rd party as by the Betfair bot.
Our robots cannot cheat, they place bets through the same channel as other robots, have no access to privileged information and cannot influence the result. The architecture of the system has been passed by our regulator and approved.
BetFair Games
Once again, we see that BetFair are ethical and disclose…- whereas InTrade-TradeSports are not and do not.
Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
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…- Is The Word Of The Day:
For instance, lobbying and spin efforts are often euphemistically referred to as “-outreach,”- as in the headline, “-Cable industry’-s outreach halts FCC bid for additional control.“-
More Info.
That came from a margin trader [*] and prediction market blogger.
Well, if you practice (amateur or professional) journalism (which blogging is), then I don’-t see how you can be interesting to your audience if you are “-aligned”- with one prediction exchange in particular —-whether it’-s InTrade-TradeSports or BetFair-TradeFair. Journalism should be independent. Caveat Bettor, who is a great amateur prediction market journalist, and who overall supports InTrade-TradeSports, is not “-aligned”- with them. He makes up his own mind, and would occasionally disapproves an InTrade or TradeSports policy he can’-t stand. As a reader, I trust Cav. Mike Smithson is not “-aligned”- with BetFair. I trust Mike Smithson. In general, I trust any web editor and publisher who has an independent editorial line. (And if that blogger can foster diversity of opinion on his/her blog, that’-s better.) “-Aligned”-??? A blogger should be out of line.
[*] Margin traders and prediction market researchers are very much dependent from their prediction exchange, just like heroin addicts are from their dope dealer. They are at the mercy of the executive running the exchange. No trading data = no academic career in the field of prediction markets. Don’-t expect the full truth from addicts. And when a scandal breaks out, those academics plunge under their bed. (Robin Hanson is one of the rare exceptions, because he does not specialize in meta analysis. He is more a new-institution designer, and thus less dependent from the InTrade trading data than the other researchers. That doesn’-t make him a courageous white knight, though.)
Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
A figurine of Jesus Malverde (from Mexico) —-”-the patron saint of drug dealers“-…- if you can believe it. What a shame.
Author Profile -Editor and Publisher of Midas Oracle .ORG .NET .COM —- Chris Masse’-s mugshot —- Contact Chris Masse —- Chris Masse’-s LinkedIn profile —- Chris Masse’-s FaceBook profile —- Chris Masse’-s Google profile —- Sophia-Antipolis, France, E.U. Read more from this author…-
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– In February 2001, Fortune magazine named ENRON the “-most innovative company”-.
– In October 2007, Robin Hanson, on the Overcoming Bias blog, re-published the falsehood that James Surowiecki (and 3 other book authors in their respective book) made a mistake about Francis Galton in his book, The Wisdom Of Crowds.
– In January 2008, the “-BetFair Prof”- (Leighton Vaughan-Williams) claimed, on the BetFair blog, that the “-betting markets”- foresaw the Republican race in the Michigan primary.
– In January 2008, Risk magazine named SOCIETE GENERALE (recently busted by one of its traders, which lead to a loss of 7.2 billion dollars) the “-equity derivatives house of the year”-.
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TAKEAWAY: Either by complete incompetence or by lack of investigation means, journalism is not up to its lofty goal —-telling the truth to people.
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(Via Marc Andreessen.)
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Jerome Kerviel, soon to be named “-person of the year”- by Risk magazine? 
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
I think that’-s the takeaway from the BetFair blog fiasco.
My questions are still unanswered this morning. What data was used to concoct that dithyrambic write-up about the predictive power of the “-betting markets”- on the 2008 US primaries and caucuses (and in particular the Michigan race)? BetFair? If so, please, send me the expired charts. InTrade? Another source? A cocktail of sources? Please, cite everything, so we can check.
I will blog about this issue, every day, till it is resolved —-one way or another. I’-m resilient.
I’-ll blog about this BetFair blog fiasco for the whole year of 2008, and more, “-to infinity and beyond”- (as said Buzz LightYear in Toy Story), if that’-s what it takes to get answers from Hammersmith and Nottingham. Those folks are as voluble as yellow canaries, usually, when it comes to touting their wares. Cat got their tongue? What data did they use for their dithyrambic blog post? Is that so confidential?
POLITENESS.
Tomorrow’s overnight cards
Betfair Customer Services 18 Jan 19:14
Please be aware that all our overnight cards for Saturday’s racing are currently suspended while we investigate a potential technical issue. Please accept our apologies for the inconvenience this will cause. At this stage it is unclear when they will be re-opened.Betfair Customer Services 18 Jan 22:54
All tomorrow’-s cards are now re-opened. Once again, please accept our apologies for any inconvenience caused.
Bombastic blogger Chris Masse could take some lessons from them, too.
Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:
